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UFC 166 Handicapping | Betting Preview | Free UFC Picks

UFC 166 Preview and Picks

The UFC stars will be on display once again this Saturday when UFC 166 takes place in Houston, Texas. A trilogy bout for the Heavyweight title between Cain Velazquez and Junior dos Santos headlines one of the best cards of the year – let’s take a look.

UFC 166: Velasquez vs. Dos Santos 3
Date: October 19, 2013
Time: 10pm ET/7pm PT
Location: Toyota Center, Houston, Texas
Broadcast: Pay-per-view

Main Card (on Pay-Per-View):

Cain Velasquez (12-1): -200
Junior dos Santos (16-2): +160

UFC Odds From Bovada

Cain Velazquez and Junior dos Santos are in a class by themselves when it comes to Heavyweights in mixed martial arts – there are simply the best on the planet. They will fight for the third time in two years to determine the absolute top dog in the sport. Each brings an unmatched set of strengths to the Octagon Saturday – the trick will be to lure their opponent into their type of fight.

The Champ Cain Velazquez is the best wrestler in the Heavyweight Division – his takedowns, takedown defense and ground control are like no other. He also has arguably the best cardio of any fighter on the UFC roster today and an ever-emerging striking game as demonstrated in his last fight with dos Santos.

Junior dos Santos will be looking to reclaim what he thinks is his – the Heavyweight belt Saturday. He is the most dominant boxer in the division – technically sound on his feet with power to spare. Apparently he has a jiu-jitsu game as well but we have never seen that aspect of his game. Like Velazquez, dos Santos is supremely conditioned and ready to go five rounds Saturday.

This bout is pretty tough to call but looking at the last fight, I have to lean Velazquez’s way. He beat dos Santos in absolutely every aspect of that fight and even had the edge in the standup. Velazquez proved that he was a terrific student in that fight and is leaps-and-bounds ahead of the fighter that lost to dos Santos in their first fight. Constant pressure, elite wrestling and adequate striking earns Cain Velazquez the decision win Saturday.

Pick: Cain Velazquez -200

Daniel Cormier (12-0): -600
Roy Nelson (19-8): +400

Undefeated Daniel Cormier puts his streak on the line against the guy that gives fat guys reason to get up in the morning – Roy Nelson. This fight has all the makings of Fight of the Night for sure – two huge grappling practitioners with lethal standup. It could be a classic.

Cormier was an elite college wrestler who added submissions and a terrific standup game to his repertoire. He holds wins over Josh Barnett, Antonio Silva and most recently Frank Mir and looks poised to take that next step toward heavyweight superstardom.

Roy Nelson is a jiu-jitsu Black Belt with and absolutely insane chin and an ability to stand and bang with anyone. He is a tough out for anyone and a good test for a fighter trying to climb the ladder in the UFC.

Cormier is a huge favorite here – he is a B+ fighter while Nelson is a C+/B- fighter. I have to take the all around game of Cormier in this one but make this pick with some reservations. All Nelson needs is one clean shot!

Pick: Daniel Cormier -600

Gilbert Melendez (21-3): -700
Diego Sanchez (24-5): +450

Gilbert Melendez will step into the UFC Octagon for just the second time Saturday – the first being a split decision loss to Ben Henderson. His opponent Saturday is Diego Sanchez – a recent controversial winner against Takanori Gomi at UFC on FUEL 8.

Melendez is an absolutely elite level Lightweight – speed, cardio, wrestling and striking are all solid parts of his game. Melendez has no holes! Sanchez is a tough guy but is a tier or two below Melendez in absolutely every aspect of this fight.  [ad-3573245]

Melendez fancies himself a title contender and proves that he is worthy for a shot Saturday!

Pick: Gilbert Melendez -700

Gabriel Gonzaga (15-7): +160
Shawn Jordan (15-4): -200

Another Heavyweight scrap is on tap for the Main Card at UFC 166 when Gabriel Gonzaga takes on striker Shawn Jordan. Gonzaga has had his issues in the UFC in the past but is 3-1 in his recent stint here.

Gonzaga is head-and shoulders above Jordan in terms of ground game and I think that is precisely where this fight ends up – on the mat. Jordan is an OK striker as is Gonzaga but ultimately this fight will be determined by work on the ground. Jordan is a fish out of water in this one!

Pick: Gabriel Gonzaga +160

John Dodson (15-6): -350
Darrell Montague (13-2): +250

Flyweights kick off the Main Card at UFC 166 when one of the best in the world Darrell Montague finally makes his long-awaited Octagon debut. His opponent – another top tier Flyweight John Dodson who has already fought and lost to Demetrious Johnson for the UFC title.

Dodson is one tough dude, able to make anyone’s debut in the UFC less-than-hospitable. Dodson is too fast, too powerful and too hungry to get another title shot to be denied in this one.

Pick: John Dodson -350

Preliminary Card (on Fox Sports 1):

Tim Boetsch (16-6): -170 vs. CB Dolloway (13-4): +140
Pick: Tim Boetsch -170

Nate Marquardt (32-12-2): +145 vs. Hector Lombard (32-4-1): -175
Pick: Nate Marquardt +145

Sarah Kaufman (15-2): -220 vs. Jessica Eye (10-1): +175
Pick: Sarah Kaufman -220

George Sotiropoulos (14-5): +135 vs. KJ Noons (11-7): -165
Pick: KJ Noons -165

Preliminary Card (on Facebook):

TJ Waldburger (16-7): +135 vs. Adlan Amagov (12-2-1): -165
Pick: TJ Waldburger +135

Tony Ferguson (13-3): -400 vs. Mike Rio (9-2): +300
Pick: Tony Ferguson -400

Jeremy Larsen (8-4): +160 vs. Andre Fili (12-1): -200
Pick: Andre Fili -200

Dustin Pague (11-8): +130 vs. Kyoji Horiguchi (11-1): -160
Pick: Kyoji Horiguchi -160

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