Tag: CBB Picks

2008 College football Week 1 Plays

(My Sportsbook) – About a year ago this time, I gave out three first week college football plays. All three were winners.

Georgia Tech, a one-point road favorite, had no problem dismantling Notre Dame, 33-3, outgaining the Fighting Irish 380 yards to 122. The Yellow Jackets hadn’t won in South Bend since 1959 and Notre Dame had previously been victorious in 17 of its last 20 season openers, but last year’s game was a cakewalk for Tech.

UCF went into Raleigh and knocked off N.C. State, 25-23, as an eight-point underdog. The Knights racked up over 200 rushing yards in winning their first- ever contest against an ACC opponent. It was just the second win in UCF’s previous 12 road openers, and the first since 1998.

The only matchup that was a tad worrisome was Troy plus 21.5 points at Arkansas. The Trojans, who trailed by only six at the half, fell apart in the next 25 minutes and were down, 46-20 with just five minutes remaining. However, the final sixty seconds proved to be the difference as Troy marched down the field and scored a touchdown on the last play of the game getting the backdoor cover for those who wagered on the Trojans.

GAME ONE

This year there are two matchups that stand out, with the first coming from Ann Arbor, Michigan. The Wolverines, who open the Rich Rodriguez era with a home game vs. Utah, will fall as a home favorite for the second straight season after getting pounded by Oregon in their first lined contest in ’07. Don’t forget, they also dropped their first game at Michigan Stadium last year when Appalachian State got the best of them the first week of the season.

Gone are Michigan’s all-time passing and rushing leaders in Chad Henne and Mike Hart, along with Mario Manningham and Adrian Arrington, who simply combined for 169 receptions and 20 touchdowns. Only one wide receiver returns that has caught more than four career passes.

On top of that, four starters from the offensive line depart, leaving the unit with only 16 lifetime starts, second lowest in all of FBS. The change in coaching from Lloyd Carr to Rodriguez also brings new schemes which the personnel will need time to master.

Whoever starts at quarterback will have a hard time completing anything against a Utes secondary that ranked as one of the best in all of college football last year. Three starters return from the unit that allowed just nine passing touchdowns. Only one other club in all of FBS prevented less than 10 TDs through the air and that was the USC Trojans, who tied Utah for the top spot.

Michigan allowed 73 points in its first two games last season, but ended the year ranked second behind Ohio State in scoring and total defense in Big Ten play. With seven starters returning, it appears the Maize and Blue will be strong on that side of the ball. Nevertheless, they lose their top four tacklers and must replace both starting safeties and their top two linebackers.

Utah returns four-fifths of its offensive line, along with starting quarterback Brian Johnson, who guided the Utes to an 8-1 mark after missing most of the first four weeks with an injured shoulder.

Injuries ruined what could have been a fantastic season as RB Matt Asiata and WR Brent Casteel were lost for the season in the first two games. Both are back for ’08 and this offense has the capabilities to be just as explosive as the “O” that averaged 45 ppg in the undefeated 2004 campaign.

Utah is 10-4 ATS vs. BCS schools since 2003 and Michigan has failed ATS its last three tries against the MWC, including a 10-7 home win vs. the Utes in 2002, a game Utah was getting 10.5 points.

Take Utah plus the points as the Utes gain the outright victory.

GAME TWO

Nebraska hosts Western Michigan in Bo Pelini’s first game as head coach for the Cornhuskers. Last season was a nightmare for “Big Red,” especially in regard to a defense that allowed over 500 yards per game in eight Big 12 matchups. After holding opposing offenses to 18 ppg in ’06, the defense crumbled in ’07, giving up an average of 38 points per game – 46 over the last seven games.

The “D” came into last season having to replace the entire front line, which caused the unit to rank 116th in the country in rushing defense. All four starters return in ’08, but the ‘Huskers lose their top four linebackers who ranked first, third, fifth and seventh in tackles last season.

The secondary, which was picked on due to the inexperience up front, allowed 20 touchdowns with only nine picks. Nebraska was one of five BCS teams to intercept less than 10 passes while allowing 20 or more TDs. The other four combined for a 15-33 record.

Western Michigan also had a disappointing campaign, dropping to 5-7 after an 8-5 season, which was capped off with a bowl appearance for the first time in 18 years. Quarterback Tim Hiller was rusty after missing all of 2006, but he did finish with a flurry, averaging 318 yards with a 6-2 TD/INT ratio in his final three games. Don’t forget, with Hiller at the helm, the Broncos averaged 41 ppg in four straight starts back in ’05.

It might seem an easy task scoring points against a team from the MAC, but WMU brings back 10 defensive starters, including a bulk of players who keyed the Broncos to an 11th-place finish in total defense back in ’06. Even though they allowed 29 ppg last year, the unit clamped down the second half of the season giving up just 19 per contest, and one of those games was a nine- point decision at Iowa.

Nebraska returns five starters on offense, including 1,000-yard rusher Marlon Lucky. The Cornhuskers will rely more on their ground game in ’08, but that suits Western Michigan just fine. The Broncos were seventh in the country against the run two years ago and following an off year in ’07, a bounce-back season is in the cards. This is a veteran group with nine senior starters who will be hungry after last year’s troubles.

If the Huskers do throw the ball more than expected, look for the Broncos secondary to be up to the challenge. Nebraska quarterback Joe Ganz threw for 1,399 yards in his three starts last year, but the senior was picked off seven times and he won’t have the luxury of having Maurice Purify and Terrence Nunn to throw to in ’08.

Nebraska barely squeaked by Ball State at home last year, winning 41-40 and if you remember, the Cornhuskers were doing just fine heading into that tilt. They had destroyed Nevada 52-10, won at Wake Forest, and then scored the most points (31) USC had allowed all season long in their 18-point loss. This Western Michigan team is just as good, if not better, than the Ball State club that should have won at Memorial Stadium last September 22.

Take the Broncos plus the points.

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