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MLB Betting – Philadelphia vs. Milwaukee Preview & Pick

MLB Betting – Phillies vs Brewers Preview & Pick

Date: Thursday, September 8, 2011

Venue: Miller Park, Milwaukee, WI

Broadcast: CSN, FSWI

Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers Betting Lines from Sportsbook.com

Money Line: OFF

Over/Under: 8

Philadelphia Phillies (90-48 through September 6)

Cole Hamels (13-7, 2.63)

There wasn’t much to say about the Phillies’ chances at the National League East when the season started; the team was so stacked that it was almost a foregone conclusion. Now, a week into September, nothing’s changed. Through Tuesday, the Phils had widened their lead over Atlanta to 9.5 games and gone 7-2 over their last nine.

Thursday will mark Cole Hamels’ second start since returning from the 15-day DL last week. Most people around the game agree that 2011 has been his finest season yet. He’s maintained his outstanding control and strikeout rate but has cut his homer rate in half. Last week, he did serve up two taters, however, so the Phillies only hope it was a blip on the radar.

Hamels is 4-2 against the Brewers in his career but he’s had some trouble at Miller Park, where the Brewers happen to be 50-19 this season. Hamels has a 5.00 ERA with six homers allowed over 27 innings there.

Milwaukee Brewers (85-58 through September 6)

Chris Narveson (10-6, 4.26)

The only other team in baseball with a division lead as comfortable as Philadelphia’s is Milwaukee. The Brewers are in cruise control. The Cardinals swept them last week but they bounced back to take three of four from lowly Houston.

Is Chris Narveson up to the task of stopping the Phillies? The innings eater has lost once in his last 10 starts. He’s 6-2 with a 3.76 ERA at home this season.

Though Narveson turned in a quality start his last time out against the Phillies (6 IP, 3 ER), they rocked him the time before that, so he’s somewhat of a wild card.

The pick:

 Hamels is twice as talented as Narveson but his two homers allowed in his last start are troubling. The Brewers have a proven track record of power-hitting success against him. Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder have four homers in 39 combined at-bats versus Hamels. Narveson seems comfortable at home, just like the whole Brewer team, and the Phillies didn’t faze him the last time out.

Take the Brewers and you may even get home dog value because Hamels is pitching.

Phillies vs Brewers prediction: Brewers 6, Phillies 5

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