There is nothing better than starting a new season in the NFL with the correct call on a two-team parlay to boost the bankroll. I went with Cincinnati and Houston in Week 1 and cashed-in, but it is time to go back to the drawing board to find another pair of winners for this week’s games based on the NFL betting odds.
The 2014 NFL regular season gets underway this week which presents the perfect opportunity to cash-in on a few bad Week 1 lines with a two-team parlay that gets things started in the right direction. Here are my top two plays for Week 1 in the NFL and these are two great games. Cincinnati vs. Baltimore & Washington vs. Houston.
We are down to the final eight teams in this year’s quest to earn a spot in Super Bowl XLVIII after the first four teams were eliminated in last week’s Wildcard Round.
The NFL regular season is in the books so it is now time to turn my attention to the Super Bowl XLVIII Derby and in particular this weekend’s Wildcard Round of the NFL Playoffs.
The favorites carved out a slight 9-7 edge against the spread in Week 16 of the NFL regular season with the total staying UNDER in 11 of the 16 games on the slate.
The two dominating bets in Week 15 of the NFL season were underdogs and overs. Of the 16 games on the schedule, the underdog won eight games straight-up and covered against the spread in two other contests.
The dogs carved-out a slight 8-7-1 edge over the favorites against the spread last week in the NFL but the best action was on the total line. The total stayed UNDER the closing line in 10 of the 16 games on Week 13’s slate.
The dogs had their day last week in the NFL with seven teams getting points wining their game straight-up and another two covering with the points. For the second week in a row the total line was evenly split with seven games going OVER and seven staying UNDER the closing line.
The favorites doubled up the underdogs 8-4 against the spread in Week 11 of the NFL season with the other three games ending as a PUSH. The total line was evenly split 7-7 and one game ended as a PUSH.
Looking back at the results from Week 10 in the NFL, the underdogs ruled the day by covering the spread in nine of the 14 games on the schedule. When it came to the total line, eight of the game stayed UNDER the closing line.
Last week in the NFL the underdogs had a slight 7-6 edge over the favorites against the spread on the strength of Minnesota and Tampa Bay covering in a close loss. Higher scoring games remained the norm for the fourth week in a row with nine of the 13 games going OVER the closing total line.
The favorites had the edge over the underdogs for the second-straight week in the NFL with teams giving points covering in eight of the 13 games on Week 8’s schedule. The total also favored higher scoring games for the third week in a row with eight of the games going OVER the closing total line.
The Oddsmakers have been razor sharp the past two weeks in the NFL with an even 15-15 split between favorites and underdogs against the spread. When it came to betting totals, it was the second week in a row that nine of the 15 games went OVER the closing line.
The overall results for Week 6 in the NFL saw the underdogs carve out a slight 8-7 edge over the favorites against the spread after five dogs lost straight-up but covered with the points. There was also an unexpected uptick in scoring with nine of the 15 games going OVER the closing total line.
I am happy to say that I cashed-in on last Sunday’s parlay, but moving on to this week’s games, I have uncovered a couple of matchups that come together perfectly to form this Sunday’s NFL parlay of the week based on lines provided by [dfads params=’groups=63740&limit=1&return_javascript=0′].
Pointspread: Atlanta -7
Total Line: 43
ATS Matchup Stats | NFL Gambling Insight!
The Buccaneers are one of three teams still looking for their first win of the year.
They have no real offensive attack to speak of with an average of 290 yards and 12.8 points a game. Things have been so bad that they have already turned the reins over to rookie quarterback Mike Glennon after parting ways with Josh Freeman.
The only bright spot has been a defense that is ranked 10th in the league in points allowed (20.2).
Atlanta is also off to a disappointing start with just one win in its first five games.
Its passing game took a major hit with the loss of wide receiver Julio Jones and its second-best receiver Roddy White is listed as doubtful with a strained hamstring. Given that the Falcons are ranked 26th in the NFL in rushing, they could really struggle to move the ball against Tampa Bay.
The total has stayed UNDER in seven of the last 10 meetings and it stays UNDER again this Sunday afternoon to secure the front-end of this week’s parlay. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Pointspread: Denver -6.5
Total Line: 56
ATS Matchup Stats | NFL Gambling Insight!
Denver’s numbers on offense have been staggering in its 6-0 straight-up start behind a red-hot Peyton Manning at quarterback. The Broncos are ranked first in the league in passing yards (360.7), total yards (476.0) and points per game (44.2).
They have outscored their opponents by a combined 107 points and despite being heavy favorites in every game they play the Broncos come into this matchup a profitable 6-0 against the spread.
The Colts turned some heads with a 27-7 road victory over San Francisco as 10.5-point underdogs and a 34-28 win against Seattle as three-point underdogs at home, but they looked very average in this past Monday’s 19-9 loss to San Diego as one-point road underdogs.
Indianapolis now has to face the best team in the NFL on a short week. It also has to try and figure out how to stop a quarterback that spent 14 seasons winning a ton of games in its own stadium. This all adds up to another Denver victory that covers the spread and makes this parlay a winner.
The Oddsmakers’ lines for Week 5 in the NFL were razor thin with seven favorites and seven underdogs each covering against the spread. The total line was evenly split as well with seven games going OVER and seven staying UNDER.
Moving on to this week’s games I have uncovered a couple of matchups that come together perfectly to form this Sunday’s NFL parlay of the week based on lines provided by [dfads params=’groups=63740&limit=1&return_javascript=0′].
Pointspread: Kansas City -10
Total Line: 40.5
ATS Matchup Stats | NFL Gambling Insight!
Oakland improved its record to 2-3 straight-up on the year with a 27-17 victory over San Diego in a game that stayed UNDER the 46-point closing line.
The total has now stayed UNDER in four of its first five games. The Raiders’ offense is ranked 23rd in the NFL in scoring with an average of 19.6 points a game, while its defense is holding teams to an average of 21.6 points a game.
The dramatic turnaround in Kansas City from a team that won just two games all last season to one that is off to a perfect 5-0 start has been fueled by an offense that does not turn the ball over and a defense that does not allow teams in its end zone. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
The Chiefs are currently ranked first in the NFL in points allowed; giving-up an average of just 11.6 points a game. Look for them to put the clamps on Oakland as well to keep this game UNDER the 40.5-point line.
Pointspread: New York -2
Total Line: 41
ATS Matchup Stats | NFL Gambling Insight!
The Steelers are one of those early season head-shakers with a 0-4 start has them buried in the basement of the AFC North. They will be coming off a bye after losing to Minnesota 34-27 in a Week 4 matchup in London as three-point favorites.
The one positive take away from that game was an uptick in scoring from an offense that managed a combined 42 points in its first three games.
This team is not as bad as it has looked so far and a week off could mean all the difference for this Sunday’s game.
New York is off to a surprising 3-2 start after last Monday night’s stunning 30-28 victory over Atlanta as a 10-point underdog on the road.
The Jets did steal a game from Tampa Bay on a last second field goal in their season opener and they were blown-out by Tennessee 38-13 as 3.5-point road underdogs in Week 4 so I am still not buying what Rex Ryan’s bunch is trying to sell.
Pittsburgh is 7-3 straight-up in the last 10 meetings and I fully expect the Steelers to get off the schneid with a SU win this time around to secure the back-end of this parlay.
Last week we got our first real look at all 32 NFL teams in action and while most of the favorites held true to form straight-up, there were some golden opportunities to cash-in on some bad lines against the spread. That is bound to hold true again this week so here is my two-team NFL parlay for Week 2 based on lines provided by [dfads params=’groups=63740&limit=1&return_javascript=0′].
Pointspread: Green Bay -9
Total Line: 49.5
ATS Matchup Stats | NFL Gambling Insight!
Washington is going to have to quickly rebound from a stunning 33-27 loss to Philadelphia this past Monday night as a three-point home favorite. The total in that game went OVER the 51.5-point line. It found itself down by as many as 26 points before rallying to keep the scoring closer than this game really was.
The good news is that Robert Griffin III finished on a strong note after looking extremely rusty in the first half.
Green Bay had a four-point lead with eight minutes to play in its season opener against San Francisco, but it could not hold on in a 34-28 loss as a five-point road underdog. The total in this matchup went OVER a closing line of 47 points.
Aaron Rodgers had no problem moving the ball up and down the field through the air against one of the best defenses in the league, so look for him to have another big day this Sunday as well.
Both of these teams come into this game with a number of question marks on defense, which should translate to quite a few points on the scoreboard.
The total has gone OVER in four of Washington’s last six games and in four of the 49ers’ last five, so I am going with the OVER 49.5 in this game as the front-end of this week’s parlay. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Pointspread: Seattle -2.5
Total Line: 44
ATS Matchup Stats | NFL Gambling Insight!
Everyone wondered if Colin Kaepernick was the real deal after leading San Francisco to the Super Bowl last season and the third-year quarterback answered that question with 412 yards passing and three touchdowns on opening day.
These numbers are impressive but the 49ers are going to have to do a much better job running the ball to win this game after gaining just 90 yards on the ground against Green Bay.
Seattle has already proven it knows how to win ugly and that was clearly the case last week in a 12-7 victory over Carolina as a three-point favorite on the road.
The Seahawks were held to just three points in the first half and did not find the end zone until five minutes into the fourth quarter. The good news is that Seattle’s defense looked to be in mid-season form; holding the Panthers to 253 yards of total offense.
San Francisco is 1-5 against the spread in its last six trips to Seattle, which is one of the toughest places in the league to get a win.
The Seahawks went a perfect 8-0 at home last season and given that the half point on the spread in in their favor, I am going with Seattle covering the 2.5 points as the back-end of this parlay.
