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Handicapping

Ben Burns: Bad Beats Sept. 28th

Burns’ Bad Beats: Singletary ruins under in 49ers-Chiefs

Ben Burns
Ben Burns

Mike Singletary is not an NFL-caliber coach.

He’s a coordinator or maybe a college coach at best. He proved that again Sunday, and his childish antics cost smart bettors who took the under in the 49ers-Chiefs game an easy winner.

The total opened at 36, but rose steadily and ended up going off at 38. In a matchup of two below-average offenses with shaky quarterbacks against improving defenses, the under was the sharp side.

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Handicapping

2010 NFL Betting – Seven Key Steps to Success

Ready To Bet On NFL Football In 2010?

Looking for some great tips to consider before 2010 NFL betting? We’ve got your back. Don’t you hate when you get that perfect betting tip or system at the end of the football season? You’re left thinking, “Why didn’t I know this before I lost money all year?” Time to change that.

CHECK OUT OUR CAPPERS 2010 NFL WEEKLY PICKS ALL SEASON LONG —–>

Just as the season is about to start, here are seven simple steps to follow for success. Some of them may be obvious, others not so much. But they can all help you. Enjoy!

1. Team statistics mean everything

You can usually tell a lot about a matchup simply by looking at each team’s statistical strengths and weaknesses. For example, while no one expected a 59-0 rout, most savvy bettors saw New England’s destruction of Tennessee coming last year. The reason: the Titans ranked brutally low against the pass and struggled to rush the passer whereas the Patriots ranked near the top of the league in passing offense. It was easy to see that Tom Brady would pick the Titans apart.

Team ranks sometimes matter more than an individual star’s presence. Nnamdi Asomugha is an elite cornerback and he helps make the Oakland Raiders’ pass defense respectable but he alone won’t ensure that Oakland will “shut down” an opponent and win. If Oakland can’t stop the run, it will still allow plenty of points.

2. Keep track of injuries

While you can sometimes get better value hammering lines early in the week, I recommend taking slightly less value but upping your odds closer to game time with an educated guess. Follow injury reports and be aware of any high-impact absences or returns to the lineup.

3. Watch the games

It’s a simple but effective way to know more about whom you’re betting on. Aaron Rodgers is a great quarterback but you’ll know from watching him that he holds onto the ball for way too long. When he faces an aggressive pass rush, you may expect him to take a few extra hits and turn over the ball.

Watching games can reveal things not found on a stat sheet. On paper, Brett Favre took zero sacks against New Orleans in the NFC Championship game last year. If you watched it live, you’ll know that the Saints beat the tar out of him by hitting him at the end of every play, even if he still got his throws off. Suddenly, the secret to defeating Favre was revealed: beat him up. Sports Betting at Sportsbook.com

4. Weather matters, especially late in the season

Rain and mud can affect teams’ run-to-pass ratios but it’s cold weather and snow that really give bettors a leg up. If a Florida team travels to Buffalo or Green Bay in December, pounce. Warm-weather teams often struggle to adjust in tough conditions.

A perfect example is a famous 1985 matchup between the visiting Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Green Bay Packers. In a vicious snow storm, the Pack gained 463 yards. The Bucs gained 69. Not a coincidence.

5. Losers aren’t always losers

Just because a team’s win-loss record is terrible doesn’t mean it will lose you money every week. Some bad teams consistently lose close games and thus beat the spread more often than people expect. The most famous example in 2009 was Kansas City; the Chiefs went 2-14 but lost eight games by a touchdown or less.

6. Keep track of betting-specific statistics

This rule goes hand-in-hand with No. 5. If you bet against the spread every week, doesn’t a team’s against the spread record matter more than its win-loss record? The Cleveland Browns were 10-6 ATS last year. If you ignored their  5-11 straight-up record and followed the betting trends, they would’ve won you money.

Betting statistics go beyond the spread; don’t forget about over/under records.

7. Look for value early in the season

It’s easier to handicap a game in Week 15, when you have a boatload of season rankings and accurate current team statistics to help with your forecast. But what about Week 1, when we don’t truly know how much a team has improved over the offseason?

Take the Denver Broncos. Everyone expected them to be a disaster in 2009 yet they opened the season 6-0. Opponents underestimated them and so did bettors. It’s no sure thing, but it can be profitable to play a hunch on your favorite surprise team early in the season.

For example, most books favor the Chicago Bears by seven over the Detroit Lions in Week 1 this year. But what if Chicago underestimates rookie Jahvid Best’s breakaway speed or Ndamukong Suh’s ability to rush Jay Cutler? Sometimes, early-season unpredictability gives you value.

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Fantasy Football

2009 – Week 1 NFL Injuries

Week 1 NFL Injuries

Here’s the week 1 report to help you with your fantasy football teams. We scoped out the leagues post game newswires to bring you an up to date list of important team injuries for week 1 of the NFL football season.

The NFL week 1 injury report, or as we’ve always called it, “The Sunday Shelf”.

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Fantasy Football

Week 15 NFL Injuries

Week 15 NFL Injuries

Here’s the week 15 report to help you with your fantasy football teams. We scoped out the leagues post game newswires to bring you an up to date list of important team injuries for week 15 of the NFL football season. The NFL week 15 injury report, or as we’ve always called it, “The Sunday Shelf”.  

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Fantasy Football

Week 14 NFL Injuries

Week 14 NFL Injuries

Here’s the week 14 report to help you with your fantasy football teams. We scoped out the leagues post game newswires to bring you an up to date list of important team injuries for week 14 of the NFL football season. The NFL week 14 injury report, or as we’ve always called it, “The Sunday Shelf”.  

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Cappers

Week 14 Cappers NFL Analysis

NFL Lines – Some NFL Teams Will Be Left Out in the Cold

What do Pittsburgh and New England have in common besides cold weather climates in the NFL? They have outstanding regular season records in December since 2003.

Most importantly, both AFC teams made the Super Bowl four of the past five years, winning three times.

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Fantasy Football

Week 13 NFL Injuries

Week 13 NFL Injuries

Here’s the week 13 report to help you with your fantasy football teams. We scoped out the leagues post game newswires to bring you an up to date list of important team injuries for week 13 of the NFL football season. The NFL week 13 injury report, or as we’ve always called it, “The Sunday Shelf”.

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Handicapping

Handicapping NFL Injuries – Week 5

AFC Injuries Already Taking Toll on Pre-Season Favorites

The injuries in the AFC have started to pile up to the point that before making any wagers on some of the stalwarts in the AFC, the San Diego Chargers for example, online betting fans had better take a look at that injury report.

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Fantasy Football

Week 3 Pre-Game NFL Injury Report

NFL Betting Daily – BetUS NFL Injury Report

In this week’s BetUS Radio Podcast, Damon D discusses two huge injuries in the NFL. Justin “Young Hugg” Fargas went down with what seemed to be a groin injury on Sunday against Kansas. That would be a bad thing, except that Fargas’ backup is named Darren McFadden.  

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Fantasy Football Sports

Week 2 Fantasy Football Injuries

Week Two in the NFL is All about Injuries

This is Week 2 of the NFL Season and already the injury bug has changed the fortunes of many teams. It’s important to note that each team in the NFL plays 16 games and only 16 games. That means that a single win, or loss, could impact a team’s entire season.

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Fantasy Football

Week 1 NFL Injury Report – fantasy football, NFL Injuries

Week 1 NFL Post Game Injury Report

Fantasy Football Related Injuries

Here’s the week 1 report to help you with your fantasy football teams. We scoped out the leagues post game newswires to bring you an up to date list of important team injuries for week 1 of the NFL football season. The NFL week 1 injury report, or as we’ve always called it, “The Sunday Shelf”.

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Extra's

Browns QB Injured?

Browns QB Anderson Leaves game vs. Giants Early

Cleveland Browns quarterback Derek Anderson left Monday’s preseason contest against the New York Giants with a possible concussion. Anderson was sacked by Giants defensive end Osi Umenyiora and immediately exited to be evaluated.

Brady Quinn replaced him, and as of right now is a mediocre 6/10 for 114 yds and 1 TD.

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Extra's

Vikings S Williams to miss opening of season

Vikings Safety Begins Season On the Injured Report

Minnesota Vikings safety Madieu Williams could miss the first three weeks of the regular season due to a neck injury.

Williams, who signed as a free agent in the offseason, missed Friday’s preseason opener with neck spasms and the Minneapolis Star-Tribune cited sources as saying the former Cincinnati Bengal could be sidelined for the next six weeks.

You can find all sorts of NFL Future Odds & Lines up and ready to bet on at CappersPicks.com.  Try NFL Betting today in our top sportsbooks – we feel they have the best NFL gambling lines on the web.

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Extra's

Rams Lose DB For The Year

Rams DB (Cornerback) Out For Season

The St. Louis Rams have lost rookie cornerback Justin King for the season with a torn ligament in his left big toe.

Last year for Penn State King deflected 21 passes and intercepted three others on his way to earning first-team All-Big Ten Conference honors and this year in Rams camp “He was playing good,” Rams head coach Scott Linehan said.

King suffered the injury in the first quarter of the Rams’ 34-13 loss to the Tennessee Titans on Saturday. The 21-year-old was the Rams’ fourth-round selection in the 2008 NFL Draft.