UFC 165 Jones vs. Gustafsson Handicapping
The UFC returns to Canada Saturday for UFC 165 – a card that features one of the most dominant champions in the organization. Jon Jones will defend his Light Heavyweight title for the sixth time against Alexander Gustafsson.
The odds are certainly stacked against the Swedish challenger but it wasn’t that long ago that another of the UFCs untouchables fell at the hands of an upstart challenger (cough, cough – Anderson Silva). It’s a pretty explosive card with excitement promised as always.
Let’s break it down.
UFC 165: Jones vs. Gustafsson
Date: September 21, 2013
Time: 10pm ET/7pm PT
Location: Air Canada Centre, Toronto, Canada
Broadcast: Pay-per-view
UFC Odds From Bovada
MAIN CARD
Jon Jones (18-1): -900
Alexander Gustafsson (15-1): +550
Jon Jones and Alexander Gustafsson each have one loss in their careers but in Jones’ case it was a DQ loss in a fight he was totally dominating. In other word, he hasn’t “lost” so far in his career. The reason? Athleticism, size, length and an imagination unlike any other in the UFC.
Jones is perhaps the most athletic fighter in the UFC. He is long, he is lanky, he is quick, he is unorthodox and he is simply top notch anywhere a fight happens to go. Taking a look at whom he’s defeated is a who’s who of MMA legendry – Shogun Rua, Lyoto Machida, Rashad Evans, Rampage Jackson and Vitor Belfort to name a few.
Alexander Gustafsson is one of the few in the world that will actually have a size advantage over Jones – he may surprisingly have the striking advantages as well! At 6’5”, Gustafsson has been able to use his insane boxing skills to inflict damage and to stay out of the way of potential danger zones. He is an ideal “stick and move” fighter with devastating kicks and surprisingly good defense. Beyond that, there isn’t a whole lot that stands out.
Gustafsson has been working on his wrestling ahead of this fight and it is a good thing – his only real chance however is if this fight remains upright. The Swede has a good gas tank, a good striking pedigree and seemingly a good knowledge of what his opponents wants to do in the Octagon.
The problem is that Jones himself enters with a multitude of ways he can beat you.
This fight is only happening because there is nobody left! Jones is on his way to history – Gustafsson is just another speed bump.
Pick: Jon Jones -900
Renan Barao (30-1): -650
Eddie Wineland (20-8-1): +425
The interim bantamweight title is on the line Saturday when Renan Barao takes on Eddie Wineland. Wineland has been knocking on the door recently but every time he steps up he is knocked down again. Recent losses to Urijah Faber and Joseph Benavidez seem to prove that he is not quite ready for prime time just yet.
Renan Barao has won 31 fights in a row for a reason – he is a beast that could be the best all-around fighter in the game right now. His strikes are superb and his submission game is second to none in the bantamweight division.
Wineland is a tough guy and a decent all-around fighter but Barao is on a different level along with Dominick Cruz in the bantamweight division. The Brazilian has the advantage anywhere this fight happens to end up. It should be exciting but it will be predictable.
Pick: Renan Barao -650
Matt Mitrione (6-2): -120
Brendan Schaub (9-3): -110
Two former UFC prospects and TUF alums in the midst of mini-slumps look to right their ships in Toronto Saturday. Matt Mitrione and Brendan Schaub will look to change their fortunes around after losing two of their last three fights. A loss Saturday for either fighter may be their last with the organization.
Mitrione brings terrific athleticism to the Octagon. He is a former NFLer with terrific power – five of his six wins have come by KO while Schaub has a similar stat-line – 7 of nine wins by KO.
In a matchup of evenly-skilled fighters with similar experience, I will take the more athletic of the two.
Pick: Matt Mitrione -120
Francis Carmont (21-7): +155
Costa Philippou (12-2): -190
A battle of the five fight win streaks takes place when striking machine Costa Philippou takes on French MMA star Francis Carmont in Middleweight action. Both fighters, on paper have been tremendous lately and both have six KOs on their résumés. Philippou will definitely have the stand-up and power edge while Carmont will look to stifle his opponent in typical style.
Carmont has a knack of dumbing down a fight like nobody in the Middleweight Division. He will look to smother Philippou and will have success doing so. I see a justified frustrated Philippou being dragged the full three rounds and be outpointed in typical boring, grinding Carmont style. [ad-3573245]
Pick: Francis Carmont +155
Pat Healy (29-16): +200
Khabib Nurmagomedov (20-0): -260
Pat Healy will look to build on an impressive win over Jim Miller (before his positive drug test!!!) when he takes on undefeated Khabib Nurmagomedov – one of the most impressive emerging grapplers in the Lightweight division. With a possible title shot on the line, this fight has potential to be best of the night.
Khabib Nurmagomedov has had his way with the lower tiers of the Lightweight division but gets his biggest test Saturday. Healy is a tough guy – well rounded with a terrific chin and a ton of experience. Healy also has a stellar wrestling background that should be able to somewhat minimize what Nurmagomedov hopes to do – Healy is a takedown machine that may have met his grappling match!
That said Nurmagomedov looks to be that guy being groomed for bigger things in the UFC.
Healy is a stepping stone (a tough one at that) along the way to bigger things for Khabib Nurmagomedov.
Pick: Khabib Nurmagomedov -260
UFC PRELIMS LIVE ON FOX SPORTS 1
Myles Jury (12-0): -400 vs. Mike Ricci (8-3): +300
Pick: Myles Jury -400
Ivan Menjivar (25-10): -190 vs. Wilson Reis (16-4): +155
Pick: Ivan Menjivar -190
Chris Clements (11-4): +220 vs. Stephen Thompson (7-1): -300
Pick: Chris Clements +220
Mitch Gagnon (9-2): +175 vs. Dustin Kimura (10-0): -220
Pick: Mitch Gagnon +175
UFC PRELIMS LIVE STREAM ON FACEBOOK
Renee Forte (8-2): +165 vs. John Makdessi (11-2): -210
Pick: -210
Michel Prazeres (16-1): +140 vs. Jesse Ronson (13-2): -170
Pick: Michel Prazeres +140
‘Bruce Leeroy’ Alex Caceres (8-5): -155 vs. Roland Delorme (9-1): +125
Pick: Roland Delorme +125
Nandor Guelmino (11-4-1): +220 vs. Daniel Omielanczuk (15-3-1): -300
Pick: Daniel Omielanczuk -300
