2014 NCAA Tourney Handicapping
The Wisconsin Badgers are headed to the Final Four for the first time since 2000, on Saturday, and the only thing stands between them and their second NCAA Tournament title is Kentucky.
The Wisconsin Badgers are headed to the Final Four for the first time since 2000, on Saturday, and the only thing stands between them and their second NCAA Tournament title is Kentucky.
We’re getting down to the nitty-gritty of the NCAA basketball tournament, this weekend’s games will determine who will play in the coveted Final Four in The House that Jerry Built (Cowboys Stadium, Arlington TX) on April 5.
Basketball programs are as much about coaches as they are players which is why some schools have been good for so long and other rocket up when they make the right hire.
It is amazing how quickly we get down to the Sweet Sixteen isn’t it. There are lots of really good teams in the field but as we have seen all tournament long sometimes the matchup is as important as anything. Some team’s strengths are easily neutralized and some team’s weaknesses are easily exploited.
The book is closed on the first and second rounds of NCAA Tournament play after some characteristic upsets: #14 seed Mercer over #3 Duke; #12 Stephen F. Austin over #5 Virginia Commonwealth; #12 Harvard over #5 Cincinnati; #12 North Dakota State beating #5 Oklahoma. Some bracket-busters to be sure.
I know I am supposed to write about Louisville but I have to throw some love to the Wichita State Shockers here. They pushed the Cardinals more than anybody expected and could easily have won the game.
The Orange were very impressive last week in earning their spot in the Final Four. They put forth two fantastic defensive games holding Indiana and Marquette to an average of just 45 points.
There was a lot of talk this season about how there wasn’t a dominant team in the college game. Louisville is making us second guess all of that rhetoric.
The final score of Louisville vs. Oregon probably didn’t tell the true story of the game. It looked kind of close but really the Cardinals were in control – no surprise.
NCAA Tournament – Midwest Bracket
#1 Louisville Cardinals (32-5) vs #2 Duke Blue Devils (30-5)
Sunday March 31
Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, IN
5:05PM
Moneyline: Louisville -175, Duke +155 at GTBets
Spread: Louisville -3.5
O/U: 137
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For bettors it was a disappointment as the Cards failed to cover for the first time in the tournament.
Now they square off against Duke, a team they lost to back in November…when they were missing center Georgui Dieng.
Guard Russ Smith was fantastic once again scoring 31 points even though he made just one three pointer. He made 12 of 14 from the free throw line showing the versatility to his game – I am not sure the Blue Devils have a good counter for him defensively.
It seems like every tournament game a new face steps forward for Louisville. Against the Ducks it was sophomore guard Kevin Ware, who more than doubled his seasonal average with 11 points.
To demonstrate how unlikely that was – it was his first double digit game since the first game of the season.
Louisville continues to roll and the fact that they did not beat Oregon by 20 probably makes them even more valuable in this one. They are playing great but you have to think that there are some who are going to see that loss to Duke and get on the Blue Devils to bring this one down further.
Let’s hope so.
I thought Friday night would be the end of the line for Duke. Michigan State fights you in a way that most teams don’t and I thought Duke wouldn’t be able to respond. I certainly did not see them being able to get the Spartans bigs off their games the way they did, holding them to 30% shooting from the field. [ad-6571516]
If they still have something left in their tank they are going to need it all to beat Louisville one more time and earn a trip to the Final Four.
Guard Seth Curry had a fantastic shooting game in leading the Dookies over MSU but I don’t see that happening against Louisville this time around. He was 3 for 11 in that early season victory, a game where center Mason Plumlee was the top scorer.
Plumlee will definitely find it harder this time around and the Blue Devils will likely need to get at least some production from their bench. In the victory over LU only 3 of 76 points came from subs.
It’s Duke so you can’t run your mouth off and say they can’t win…they almost always do. Still I think it will be much harder for them to do what they did again in this game.
Louisville is looking super hungry and their defense is better now than the last time they played.
It is hard to beat a team that good twice.
Spread Pick: Louisville -3.5
O/U Pick: Under
Score Prediction: Louisville 69 – Duke 62
The Buckeyes win against Arizona followed the same blueprint as their win against Ohio State. They were outplayed by the Wildcats for stretches, let them back into the ball game late, all before hitting a game winning three with almost no time left on the clock.
It is a little bit odd that Duke beat Creighton by a greater margin than they did Albany. I thought the Blue Jays would be able to push Duke but they shot horribly in a very disappointing performance.
Two games in and the Cardinals have won by 31 and 26 points. If that pattern holds than they should beat Oregon by 21 and might not be challenged until the Championship game.
The Buckeyes escaped their third round game against Iowa State with a victory. In my opinion they were outplayed but a win is a win.
I have long admired the Shockers program and I thought they would play well but I just didn’t see how they would beat Gonzaga. Even if they were able to shorten the game a little bit and play their guts out I still thought they would come up just a little bit short.
Ole Miss continued their spirited play, upsetting the Badgers in their opening round game of the tournament.
The Buckeyes were happy to let Iona set the pace and beat them at their own game, winning by 25 while scoring 95 points in their opener. Don’t let that number fool you as they are far from an elite offensive team.