Preseason: Denver Broncos at Houston Texans
BetUS NFL Betting Odds: HOUSTON -3, Total 34.5
NOTABLE STAT: Denver was 29th in rushing defense in 2007 (142.1 ypg allowed)
KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: Denver has won nine of its last 12 in pre-season
The Houston Texans (8-8 SU & ATS in 2007) are trying to get themselves over the .500 mark and to the playoffs in this, the third season of Gary Kubiak’s tenure as head coach. On Saturday night they will get their pre-season started when they host the Denver Broncos (7-9 SU, 5-11 ATS in 2007) in an NFL exhibition game that is slated to begin at 8 PM ET at Reliant Stadium (natural turf) in Houston.
In the BetUS NFL football betting odds, the Texans are listed as a three-point home favorite, with a posted total of 34.5 points.
Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup (reflecting numbers going into the 2008 season):
* DEN has lost nine of its last 14 games SU
* DEN has covered six of its last 24 games
* DEN has played 15 of its last 21 games OVER the total
* DEN has played five of its last seven road games OVER the total
* HOU has won five of its last eight games SU
* HOU has played four of its last five games OVER the total
* HOU has won five of its last six home games SU
* DEN has played four of its last six pre-season games UNDER the total
* DEN has won nine of its last 12 pre-season games SU
* DEN has covered eight of its last 12 pre-season games
* HOU has played seven of its last nine pre-season games OVER the total
* HOU is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight pre-season games
* HOU has won four of its last five pre-season home games SU
Of course, the storyline here is easy – Gary Kubiak served as Denver’s offensive coordinator and quarterback coach for eleven years before taking the head coaching job with the Texans. And he has brought so much former Bronco personnel that his team has become known to some as “Denver South.” None of that has been an accident, as Kubak is trying to emulate the winning formula established by Denver coach Mike Shanahan. He has even gone so far as to hire Mike’s son, Kyle Shanahan as his offensive coordinator.
Kubiak has also hired Alex Gibbs, the former offensive line coach in Denver, as his assistant head coach, and they are going to set about trying to develop a running game that can carry this team. They could conceivably be better equipped, but there is no question that Gibbs’ presence will be felt with this team.
Andre Johnson is certainly the #1 receiver for Houston, but there is going to be some competition for who is inserted aside him and in the three and four-WR sets that Kubiak will use. Last season, when Johnson was down with injury, some of the wideouts stepped up and performed well, namely Andre Davis and Kevin Walter. The problem is that this team is thin at running back at the moment, so they’ll have to improvise.
With Sage Rosenfels getting plenty of snaps in this game, the Houston offense will be in decent shape, for a while anyway. Rosenfels tossed 15 touchdown passes last year, six more than starter Matt Schaub, despite starting only five games.
There is no secret as to one of the things Mike Shanahan wants to do in this pre-season. He needs to find an every-down running back and establish a pecking order with capable backups. Travis Henry, who was a load of trouble apparently, was let go a couple of months ago, and now Selvin Young has the lead, but he is going to be pushed by Michael Pittman and Andre Hall. The downer is that Ryan Torain, regarded as a possible “sleeper” by many, is having elbow surgery and is unavailable until at least the middle of the year.
There’s a distraction in Denver, surrounding starting wide receiver Brandon Marshall’s three-game suspension from the league for violating its code of conduct. But there may be some revenge in the air too, as Shanahan was blown away by his former pupil in a 31-13 Houston win last year. And since Shanahan doesn’t mind winning these pre-season tilts (capturing nine of their last 12), we’ll take the points with Denver, the three-point underdog in the BetUS NFL pre-season football betting odds.
JAY’S PLAY: DENVER (+3) * (Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)
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