Ducks vs Golden Bears NCAA Football Spread/Handicapping
The Oregon Ducks are coming off a game that saw them destroy a USC Trojans defense all game long, but they’re now heading to an environment that hasn’t been kind to them in the recent past. The California Golden Bears are just 3-7 on the season, but they would love to play spoiler to the Ducks BCS aspirations at this point in the season.
No. 3 Oregon Ducks (9-0) vs California Golden Bears (3-7)
Saturday November 10, 2012
Memorial Stadium, BERKELEY, CALIF.
10:30 PM ET
Moneyline: OFF
Spread: Oregon -28 from SportsBettingOnline
O/U: 67.5
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Oregon Ducks
The Oregon Ducks did whatever they wanted against the USC Trojans in their week 10 matchup. Kenjon Barner set a school record with 321 yards on the ground, which is the most ever allowed by a USC defense. Oregon also went for 730 total yards and 62 points in the contest, which are both also records against the Trojans.
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The most dangerous part about Oregon’s attack, is that they’re not one-dimensional. If Barner were the only player making a difference, the Golden Bears could pack the middle and prepare for just him this weekend. That’s not the case, though, as redshirt freshman quarterback Marcus Mariota threw four touchdowns on 20-of-23 completions for 300-plus yards.
The Ducks did give up 51 points to the Trojans—six of which came in garbage time—but they’re more than doubling their opponents on average. This team is a good defensive squad this year, as they’re allowing just 22.9 points per game.
Against California, the Ducks need to stay the course, because this contest is being viewed as a bit of a trap game. Oregon has struggled in Berkeley in recent memory, including 2010 when they went undefeated and played in the BCS National Championship. Despite annihilating almost every team they played, the team from Eugene barely squeaked out a two-point victory against a very mediocre Bears squad. The Ducks need to come into Memorial Stadium ready to play. They are on track to challenege for a BCS title this year, but only if they continue doing what they’ve done so far. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
California Golden Bears
The California Golden Bears have disappointed up to this point in the season, and they’re looking to prevent their first streak of four losses in a row this weekend. The team is coming off a 21-13 loss to the Washington Huskies, which was their third loss in a row. They average fewer points than they allow, which is a recipe for disaster.
While the Ducks are dangerous in both the ground game and the passing game, the key to beating them is stopping the run. They have a young quarterback behind enter, and while he’s looked good so far in the year, you want to make him be the one to make plays rather than Barner or De’Anthony Thomas. Oregon thrives off of the run, and if you can take that away from them, it’s a whole new ball game.
The biggest advantage for California this week is going to be having the home crowd on their side. The Ducks don’t like traveling down to Berkeley, and while this game on paper belongs to Oregon every day out of the week, stranger things have happened in college football. Unfortunately for the Golden Bears, this is a different Ducks team than has traveled their way in the past. The crowd may rattle them early in the game, but by the time the second half rolls around, expect the road team to be the ones pulling ahead, and pulling ahead big.
Trends
- Ducks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Ducks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
Ducks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
Ducks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Over is 3-0-1 in Ducks last 4 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Over is 7-1 in Ducks last 8 games following a ATS win.
Over is 4-1 in Ducks last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
O/U Pick: Over 67.5
Score Prediction: Oregon 48 – California 20
