Betting Tips – SBXLIII Trends
The circus we know as Super Bowl week is slowly winding down. Tuesday was Media Day, always good for a few laughs, but things have been pretty quiet out of Tampa since the teams arrived.
Even on the betting side things have been relatively quiet. The line, which opened at most places at -6.5, quickly moved to -7 as early Steeler money came in and it has stayed there ever since. Looking around at both online books and Vegas everyone is holding steady at -7.
The Total opened at 47.5 and saw some “Under” money push it down to 47 where it has settled in as well. So we have -7, 47 as the lines for the game. Two very key numbers that books will be highly reluctant to move away from (in fact, they won’t – you won’t see any movement on the pointspread before kick-off or the Over/Under, although you might see the juice adjusted as we get closer to game time).
Moneyline bettors, and there are always a healthy number for Super Bowl, are looking at the Steelers at -245 and the Cardinals at +205. Talking with SPORTSBETTING.com, they are seeing very balanced action on the moneyline heading into the weekend.
If you listen to ESPN radio, the Steelers are almost the unanimous XLIII pick, giving further evidence to what the Arizona Republic newspaper said about their home town team, “The Arizona Cardinals entered the playoffs channeling the likes of Rodney Dangerfield, who got no respect.”
But the Cards have been respectable in terms of covering the spread, going 12-7 ATS (and 12-7 SU), including playoff games (where they are a perfect 3-0 ATS).
If you’re wondering how these teams have performed in head-to-head matchups, don’t worry about it. There’s nothing there to help find an edge, as they rarely play each other (dating back to 1985 they’ve faced each other six times, splitting out at 3-3 ATS).
But let’s look at they have done in this poinstpread situation.
Arizona has been barely profitable the last 20 times they’ve kicked off as a dog of 8 points or less, sporting a 10-9-1 ATS mark (7-13 straight up).
However, of note though is the fact the Cardinals have posted a record of 16 overs and only 4 unders in those 20 games. In addition, Arizona owns a 15 overs and 5 unders on when playing on grass (the game is at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa which has the real stuff).
What about Pittsburgh? Including the postseason, the Pittsburgh Steelers are 14-4 SU and 11-7 ATS this year, with a 2-0 SU and ATS mark in the playoffs.
As favorites of 8-points or less, the Steelers are profitable on the moneyline, as you might expect, at 12-8 SU but are below .500 when it comes to betting against the line going 9-11 ATS.
While SPORTSBETTING.com is reporting balanced action on the moneyline, they are getting the nod from bettors wagering on the pointspread. As of Thursday morning, 65% of the volume on the side was tilted to the Steelers. They are the favorite, so this pattern should likely continue up to kick-off.
The majority are also starting to think this one could go “Over” the 47 total, as SPORTSBETTING.com is seeing just over 60% of the “Over/Under” money come in on the “Over”.
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Enjoy the big game.
