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Sportsbook Superbowl Prop Betting

SUPER BOWL: PROP DEBATE FINDS BARGAINS

The ‘StatFox Super Bowl Scuffle’ aka our prop debate, has become as big of a tradition as parties, commercials, and gambling when it comes to Super Bowl Sunday.

Well, not really, but readers do seem to like it, as it is always one of the most popular pieces of the year.

This year will mark the fourth edition of the Super Bowl Scuffle, in which StatFox representatives Steve Makinen and Doug Upstone debate the wide array of betting options available on Sunday.

Click here for a full list of prop odds at Sportsbook.com. Note that all odds are considered (-110) unless noted.

Game Point Spread, Pittsburgh (-7), Arizona (+7)

SF Doug: I believe this was a very astute line by the oddsmakers. I say Arizona is down by nine points in the 4th quarter, kicks the field goal to trail by six but doesn’t get any closer. Pick: Arizona by the slimmest of margins.

SF Steve: Pittsburgh’s shortcomings offensively, and the fact that the better seeds have covered only one Super Bowl in the last 13 years has me leaning toward underdog Arizona here.

Game Point Spread, Over/Under 46.5 Points

SF Steve: UNDER. In both of the last two Super Bowl games Pittsburgh has been in, the game went UNDER the total by more than a touchdown. The reason is the pace and physical style of play. The Steelers can’t afford to have this one played any other way.

SF Doug: OVER. Between the side and total, definitely prefer the OVER here. Pittsburgh will move the ball all day and Arizona with two weeks to prepare will have good schemes and a few surprises. The Steelers win 30-24, with the total going OVER.

First Half Line, Pittsburgh (-4), Arizona (+4)

SF Doug: Arizona +4. The last five Super Bowls have been games with margins of four points or less at halftime and I don’t see that changing..

SF Steve: Arizona +4. Typically, a team like Pittsburgh tends to wear an opponent down over the course of a game. This is the reason you don’t see many First Half Line trends favoring the Steelers. It’s hard to envision more than a field goal difference at halftime.

First Half Total, Over 23.5 (-115), Under 23.5 (-105)

SF Steve: UNDER. So far this season, Pittsburgh has scored 56% of its points after halftime, Arizona has scored 53%. Considering I’m leaning towards the UNDER for the full game, taking the OVER at the half simply doesn’t make sense.

SF Doug: OVER. I can see both coaches being aggressive, wanting to establish the upper hand to get the defenses off-balance, and 27 points and OVER is my call.

Team to receive the opening kickoff, Pit (+100), Ari (-130)

SF Steve: ARIZONA. Pittsburgh figures to be the more likely team to defer to its defense if it wins the coin toss. There’s no way the Cardinals will do that.

Will either team score in first 6 minutes of the game, Yes (-115), No (-115)

SF Steve: YES. I think Arizona has to try to force the issue early in this game. That will mean taking a chance with a long pass or trick play. Thus the chances for an early score are increased.

SF Doug: YES they will and look for a trick play by either team to be an important reason as to why.

Will either team score in last 2 minutes of 1st half, Yes (-240), No (+180)

SF Doug: NO. Though both quarterbacks are capable, coaches tend to be more conservative, preferring to make sure nothing bad happens rather than possibly something good.

SF Steve: NO. This is such a high price to pay, so like last year, I’m not going to fall into the assumption that there is automatically going to be a score before halftime, as it didn’t happen in either of the last two years.

Shortest touchdown of the game, Over 1.5 (+110), Under 1.5 (-140)

SF Steve: UNDER. This prop always gets my attention, and my logic for seemingly always taking the UNDER is the frequency of pass interference calls in the end zone that set the ball up at the 1-yard line.

SF Doug: Both teams have been very good in short yardage in the playoffs, take the UNDER.

Longest touchdown of the game, Over 44.5 (-115), Under 44.5 (-115)

SF Doug: OVER. With Larry Fitzgerald, Santonio Holmes and even Willie Parker, a big play will happen.

SF Steve: UNDER. Unlike recent Super Bowl games, I don’t think these teams rely on striking the big play. In fact, Fitzgerald is probably the most capable player of beating this number and I consider him more of a possession type receiver than a burner.

Total touchdowns scored in the game, Over 5.5 (+120), Under 5.5 (-150)

SF Steve: UNDER. The pace of the Super Bowl has slowed in the past four years, and with Pittsburgh’s defense going to be on the field for about half the game, I’d think TD’s will again come at a premium.

SF Doug: OVER. In theory, oddsmakers are telling us the final score should be about 27-20, which suggests five touchdowns under normal circumstances. Because I have a higher total score, I’ll take the OVER with a total of six TDs.

Largest lead of the game, Over 14.5 (-120), Under 14.5 (+100)

SF Doug: UNDER. Not a chance one team bolts to a big lead. The familiarity aspect of the coaches will limit any such event.

SF Steve: UNDER. I will again point to Pittsburgh’s offensive difficulties this season as the reason why they won’t be able to separate from Arizona. On the other side, the Steelers’ defense will keep them in the game if they fall behind.

Will the team that scores first win the game? Yes (-200), No (+160)

SF Doug: NO. This used to be an automatic in the playoffs that the team to score first won 70% of the time. But like getting a meal on an airplane, those days are gone.

SF Steve: NO. In this year’s playoffs, the team that scored first won just four of the 10 games if memory serves. Plus, the price associated with the NO is very attractive.

Total interceptions thrown by both teams, Over 2.5 (+135), Under 2.5 (-170)

SF Steve: UNDER. With two Super Bowl experienced quarterbacks on the field, I don’t think either will be taking many chances. I expect a more careful performance from Roethlisberger this time around.

SF Doug: UNDER. The two quarterbacks have a total of two in five games in the postseason, unless something really fluky occurs like five tipped passes.

Will there be a defensive or special teams TD? Yes (+145), No (-175)

SF Steve: NO. I’ve learned from playing Fantasy Football that whenever you hope for this type of play it doesn’t happen. Only one of the past five Super Bowls has had a defensive/special teams TD.

SF Doug: NO. Neither special teams are “special” enough and Pittsburgh had its defensive moment two weeks ago.

Total net yards by both teams. Over 666.5 (-115), Under 666.5 (-115)

SF Steve: UNDER. The StatFox Game Estimator projects 615 yards of offense and I’m leaning towards a lower scoring game.

SF Doug: UNDER. Using the simplistic approach of taking the team’s averages for yards gained and allowed on the season, it comes out to 622 yards.

Cardinals – will they ever have the lead? Yes (-220), No (+170)

SF Doug: YES. The Cardinals might have the lead at halftime and will actually lead at some point of the second quarter.

SF Steve: YES. Neither team in this matchup is dominant enough where they can be expected to control the game for 60 minutes. I expect a back-and-forth contest and am willing to lay the -220 in that belief.

Steelers – total rushing yards, Over 115.5 (-115), Under 115.5 (-115)

SF Steve: UNDER. This is a strangely inflated price. Pittsburgh averages 105 RYPG, Arizona yields 105 RYPG, but just 77.3 RYPG in the playoffs. This game will come down to which team makes more plays through the air.

SF Doug: UNDER. Pittsburgh has surpassed that total twice in the last six games and that was against teams with weaker run defenses. The Steelers will be close, but fall short.

Cardinals – total rushing yards, Over 72.5 (-115), Under 72.5 (-115)

SF Doug: UNDER. The Cardinals have rushed the ball well in three previous playoff games and not one of those teams is even close to being Pittsburgh. Over 60 yards probably, but 72.5, don’t think so.

SF Steve: OVER. The Cardinals running backs aren’t blessed with speed but their dedication to the run throughout the postseason suggests at least 25 or so rush attempts.

Ben Roethlisberger – total passing yards, Over 230.5 (-115), Under 230.5 (-115)

SF Steve: OVER. I think Pittsburgh needs Big Ben to come up big here, but an OVER in passing yards for him in no way guarantees success against the spread on Sunday. In fact, six of the last seven losing Super Bowl teams passed for 230 yards or more.

SF Doug: UNDER. The Steelers have averaged 10.8 yards per completion and Arizona has surrendered 10.7 YPC. The oddsmakers are suggesting 17.5 completions for Big Ben, which is well UNDER this listed total doing the math.

Ben Roethlisberger – total completions, Over 17.5 (-115), Under 17.5 (-115)

Online Sports Betting at Sportsbook

SF Doug: OVER. On the season, Pittsburgh has averaged 19 completions and should make that number again.

SF Steve: UNDER. Roethlisberger surpassed 17 completions just five times during the 18 game season. His completion percentage of 59.9% doesn’t warrant it either.

Ben Roethlisberger – total TD passes thrown, Over 1.5 (-155), Under 1.5 (+125)

SF Doug: OVER. The Cards’ corners are overaggressive at times and Hines Ward and Heath Miller are money in the red zone.

SF Steve: OVER. A very cautious OVER. I envision about 2-3 touchdowns for Pittsburgh overall, and I believe it will be up to Big Ben to make these plays.

Ben Roethlisberger – will he throw an interception? Yes (-145), No (+115)

SF Steve: YES. Roethlisberger’s interceptions are more a function of the pressure he has faced this year than his inaccuracy. Arizona figures to pressure him with blitz schemes as much as possible.

SF Doug: YES. Roethlisberger has been a little too clean with the ball and throws one up for grabs in the Big Game.

Willie Parker – total rushing yards, Over 80.5 (-115), Under 80.5 (-115)

SF Doug: OVER. This will be right up against it, however Parker goes OVER because of his ability to take off on a 20-yard jaunt.

SF Steve: UNDER. With the way Arizona is stuffing the run in the postseason, it seems unlikely that Parker, and his 3.8 YPR, will surpass 80 yards.

Willie Parker – will he score a TD? Yes (-115), No (-115)

SF Steve: NO. With just a handful or so of expected TD’s, taking anyone at even odds just doesn’t make sense.

SF Doug: YES. I have room for another touchdown, so YES, the undrafted free agent hits paydirt.

Mewelde Moore – total rushing yards, Over 15.5 (-115), Under 15.5 (-115)

SF Doug: Under. Moore has four carries for 19 yards in the playoffs, what changes unless Parker is injured?

SF Steve: OVER. I like taking change of pace players on OVER props in the Super Bowl, as I think these players are utilized more to throw a wrinkle into the gameplan.

Hines Ward – total receiving yards, Over 65.5 (-115), Under 65.5 (-115)

SF Steve: OVER. Assuming Ward is at full strength, he is Pittsburgh’s biggest playmaker. He surpassed 65.5 yards receiving eight times in Pittsburgh’s 18 games and will be counted on more than usual here.

SF Doug: UNDER Not certain if Ward’s injured knee will be 100%. If healthy no problem, but I see more underneath catches.

Hines Ward – total receptions, Over 5 (+105), Under 5 (-135)

SF Doug: OVER. Ward comes out of sick bay as he makes six catches.

SF Steve: OVER. A big time OVER if Ward is healthy. The comfort level that Roethlisberger has with Ward is unmatched on the Pittsburgh roster and he will be thrown to a lot.

Santonio Holmes – total rec. yards, Over 58.5 (-115), Under 58.5 (-115)

SF Steve: UNDER. Unless Holmes hits a 40+ yard play, I just don’t see him being that big of a factor as the second receiver, or third if you count Heath Miller.

SF Doug: OVER. This is a gift as Holmes is isolated on Roderick Hood and beats him twice for 20+ yards gains, plus other catches adding up to over 75 yards.

Santonio Holmes – longest reception, Over 20.5 (-115), Under 20.5 (-115)

SF Doug: OVER. Holmes beats Rod Hood like a rented mule.

SF Steve: UNDER. Holmes had catches of 21 yards or more in eight of 18 games. In my math, that doesn’t equate to even odds, especially in the Super Bowl, where the opposing defense is much more prepared.

Heath Miller – total rec. yards, Over 45.5 (-115), Under 45.5 (-115)

SF Steve: OVER. I’ll go OVER here although I believe it will be close. Miller averaged 40.9 YPG in 15 appearances overall, but 55.8 YPG over the last month. He figures to get more than average attention from ‘Big Ben’ this week.

SF Doug: OVER. Miller has no health issues, is on the same page as Big Ben, and tight ends are used as safety valves more often in big games.

Heath Miller – total receptions, Over 3.5 (-105), Under 3.5 (-125)

SF Doug: UNDER. As tempting as this is, Miller makes three very important catches and no more.

SF Steve: OVER. Miller caught 4.8 passes per game over the last month. That and my belief that Pittsburgh will have to throw to win lead me to an OVER play here.

Jeff Reed – total points, Over 8.5 (+115), Under 8.5 (-145)

SF Steve: UNDER. I believe eight is a critical number for Reed. Once you get to the 8.5 mark, you start needing 5-6 scores to have a chance. Going with the UNDER in the game, so UNDER here too.

SF Doug: OVER. If the Steelers score 30 points, that means three field goals in all likelihood and Reed goes OVER comfortably.

Sportsbook.com: Everybody bets At Sportsbook.com – Get your Super Bowl XLIII Betting Prop Odds Today! Click Here Now!!!!

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