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Green Bay Super Bowl XLV Handicapping Odds

Shea Matthews weighs in with his 5 Reasons the Green Bay Packers Win Super Bowl XLV, and indepth analysis of the Superbowl lines and Packers odds to win.

5 Reasons Green Bay Wins Super Bowl XLV

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The good thing about the pre-Super Bowl bye week? It gives us more time to break down every aspect of the matchup. That includes, say, naming the top five reasons why the Green Bay Packers will be crowned Super Bowl XLV champions next Sunday.

Here goes nothing.

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Green Bay Super Bowl XLV Handicapping Odds:
Spread: -2.5
Total: 44
MoneyLine: -135

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1. Pittsburgh’s offensive line is a house of cards.

Is there anyone left to play O-line for the Steelers? Willie Colon: injured reserve, Achilles. Max Starks: injured reserve, neck. Maurkice Pouncey (ankle) claims he’ll be ready for the Super Bowl but is currently on crutches and wearing a cast. Chris Scott’s head injury could keep him out.

Even if the Steelers have gotten some gutsy efforts from their patchwork group, it’s a scary proposition to send them out against a team that finished second in the NFL in sacks this season. Clay Matthews has the athleticism to chase down Ben Roethlisberger if he tries to take off, too. Big Ben could get hit early and often.

2. Elite quarterbacks have given the Steelers problems this season.

As much as the Steelers’ unbelievable run defense arguably didn’t get enough media play this season, their pass defense may have been a bit overrated, largely because Troy Polamalu is so noticeable when he makes a big play.

Pittsburgh ranks 12th against the pass – hardly a bad number but nothing special, either. Arguably, it faced two quarterbacks from the NFL’s “elite” tier this season: Drew Brees and Tom Brady. The Steelers lost both those games. Brees went 34 of 44 for 305 yards, two touchdowns and a pick; Brady went 30 of 43 for 350 yards, three scores and no picks.

Aaron Rodgers arguably vaulted himself into Brees and Brady’s tier (which also includes Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers) this season. He has the ability to pick apart even top-notch defenses. Teams that throw 40-plus times on the Steelers tend to do well. Last year, Rodgers went 26 of 48 for 383 yards and three scores against the Steelers (tough Polamalu didn’t play in that game).

3. The Packers’ secondary went from a liability to a strength this season

Kurt Warner’s utter destruction of Green Bay’s secondary in the 2009 playoffs is a distant memory. The Packers’ powerhouse group including Charles Woodson, Tramon Williams and Nick Collins (all Pro Bowlers), not to mention youngster Sam Shields, continuously comes up with big plays. Mike Vick, Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler – you name the star quarterback and the Packer DBs have picked off his passes in these playoffs.

That doesn’t bode well for Roethlisberger. Against the New York Jets’ dynamite secondary last week, he was just 10 of 19 for 133 yards, two interceptions and no touchdowns.

4. Green Bay doesn’t have to run to win.

The Steelers do their best work by shutting down run-first teams like the Jets, getting an early lead and forcing opponents to play catchup. Aside from the odd good game by Brandon Jackson or James Starks, the Pack haven’t used the run much at all this year. They may come out throwing from the start, attacking the Steelers’ weakness instead of their strength.

5. The Packers are the more battle-ready team.

The Steelers have won two straight tough games but Green Bay has won five straight must-win games. They had to win their final two regular-season contests and won a Wild Card playoff game before Pittsburgh had anything on the line. The Pack are brimming with confidence after storming through five consecutive top-notch opponents.

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By Shea Matthews

Shea Matthews the Senior Writer at CP. Lives and breathes sports. He made the transition from athlete to sports journalist at a young age, writing in TV & national papers. Shea applies his knowledge to sports betting + handicapping daily, and shares winning picks with the world.