SB XLIII Gambling Trends
Pittsburgh is favored in most betting circles to win Super Bowl 43 by seven points. Looking over the past 18 NFL championships, teams that were favored by a touchdown and an extra point were dead even: 3-3-1.
During that same time period, favorites were 7-9-2 against the spread.
Over the long haul, betting choices beat the spread just about half of the time. Here are some other interesting facts from various sources:
The team that scores first wins 64 percent.
Teams leading after the first quarter are 21-10 while 11 contests were tied, according to odds history.
Those leading at half time were 32-8, with two games tied, while teams on top after three quarters are 35-6, with a single contest tied.
Squads that rack up more than 32 points are 18-0 while those that score more than 20 points are 21-1.
An amazing stat shows teams failing to register at least two touchdowns are 0-17.
There has been at least a field goal made in 40 of the 42 games.
Since the seeding system started in ’75, the higher rated teams are only 13-12 straight up. Pittsburgh is the No. 2 AFC seed while Arizona is the NFC’s No. 4. Both conference champs have held the lead at least once.
Most experts believe defense rules supreme in the big game. In that case, the Steelers should be giving more points because they hold a dominant edge in several categories:
Pittsburgh has limited the opposition to 13.9 points a game, 12.7 points better than Arizona.
The Steelers held foes to an average 157 yards in the air, more than 64 yards better than the Cardinals.
Pittsburgh was very stingy on the ground, yielding just 80.3 yards each contest, 29.9 yards less than Arizona.
It appears the Cardinals must stage a successful air attack to outscore the Steelers. Arizona averaged just over 292 yards per game, 85 yards better than Pittsburgh.
The Cardinals averaged 26.7 points per game, five more than the Steelers.
Since the Super Bowl is the biggest event on the betting calendar, you might be surprised to learn that wagering doesn’t dip when the economy goes south like it has recently.
During the past 42 Super Bowls, the United States has slipped into recession five times starting in the early 1970s, with three occurring the past two decades.
The recessions have officially lasted two years, except for ’90-91. More than $40 million was wagered on the ’91 game. The Giants, a seven-point underdog, edged Buffalo on a fourth-quarter field goal, 20-19.
During the ’01-03 economic downturn, betting inched up from $67.5 million-plus to $71.6 million-plus.
The current recession began in ’07 when seven-point favorite Indianapolis walloped the Bears, 29-17. Wagering topped $93 million, about $1.5 million below the record set in ’05 when New England, a seven-point favorite, slipped by Philadelphia, 24-21.
Pittsburgh is 7-1 against the spread in its last eight games and 8-1 straight up in its past nine contests. Arizona is 4-1 against the spread and straight up in its last five games.
