Super Bowl Team Props
We all know that wagering on football is King. Prime example is the Super Bowl where you get down on pretty much anything in terms of props. For both team and individual wagers what I look for is really good odds 2:1 or better.
Often these are not directly tied to the probability of an event actually happening so you can really get some sweet returns if you hit them right.
Here are some of the plays I am looking at and some additional rationale. (odds from Betonline.com)
First Team Penalized
New York Giants -130
New England Patriots +100
These are two experienced teams so I am not expecting nervous penalties in this one. How about this though? In the first series the Pats have the ball you know the Giants are going to try and get after Brady. I see a holding call thank you very much.
Neither team takes a lot of penalties but Giants were sloppy last time out with 9.
Team with Longest Touchdown
New York Giants +110
New England Patriots -140
As the Victor Cruz story evolves there is a ton of mention of his 99 yard long TD during the regular season and the Giants have very good weapons on the outside. That is why I was surprised about the odds for this one. Great payoff on a wager that is super hard to predict.
FYI – Pats biggest playmaker – Gronkowski – is hobbled right now.
First Team to Cross 50 Yard Line
New York Giants -110
New England Patriots -120
The Giants offense sometimes struggles to get going and you have to think that Belichick might have some new wrinkles for Eli Manning to consider. On the other side Tom Brady is ruthlessly efficient and the Pats are likely to get off to a good start moving the ball. Neither team is all that explosive in the return game so it will generally be up to both offenses to move the ball.
Most First Downs
New York Giants +2 -115
New England Patriots -2 -115
Not a huge spread with relatively even odds. For me this comes down to an overall game evaluation. I like the Giants to upset and think they will be able to have success in the running game. That should lead to an advantage in first downs.
Team to score First
New York Giants -110
New England Patriots -120
Again, since I like the Giants to win I also like them to get on the board first. Usually the team that scores first wins the game. Even if they choose to defend first they have a good chance of flipping the field from the get go. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Team to Score Last
New York Giants -105
New England Patriots -125
When these guys met in the Super Bowl a few years back it was the Giants coming back to achieve victory. That scenario seems reasonable as does a late game punishing drive by the G-Men to grind out the clock. You never know how these things are going to play out but I think this is another prop where you have to go with the team you think is going to win the game.
Team with Longest Made FG
New York Giants – 110
New England Patriots -120
Bases on the numbers from the season there is not much separation here. Giants kicker Lawrence Tynes’ long for the year is 50 while Pats kicker Stephen Gostkowski has a 50 yarder as well. Gostkowski had many more attempts at 40+ which to me indicates the Pats are less likely to play it safe and punt when they can put points on the board. Giants coach Tom Coughlin is generally more conservative. Conditions should be good indoors.
Bonus: Here is one I like a lot.
Shortest Touchdown
Over 1.5 yards +120
Under 1.5 yards -150
Short TDs usually are scored by RBs but these teams overwhelmingly prefer to score through the air. The Giants have scored only 1 TD on the ground in 3 playoff games, the Patriots have 2 in two contests including a sneak that almost got Tom Brady snapped in half.
Both offenses make big plays and seem more likely to score from almost anywhere on the field.
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