NCAAF: A ROAD FAVORITE FOUR-PACK
Four road favorites highlight a very entertaining Saturday of college football. Check out these previews:
Penn State (-13) at Purdue 12 pm ET
Undefeated Penn State will attempt to stay that way at Purdue, but the Big Ten has been less than kind to Joe Pa’s team of late. Here’s a closer look at the game.
The Nittany Lions have been the imposing squad in the Big Ten, throttling their opponents. Senior signal caller Daryll Clark continues to look very comfortable at the controls of a diverse Penn State “HD” offense with exceptional weapons on the perimeter.
Despite missing suspended players in the defensive front, the Nittany Lions have still managed to pressure opposing quarterbacks and clog up running lanes. This will be a big test for Joe Paterno’s team being 4-13 ATS against Big Ten opponents over the last three seasons.
Purdue has enjoyed one of the better home field advantages in the conference under the direction of Joe Tiller. The Boilermakers are 57-22 during his tenure with a 39-28-2 ATS record. This year’s outfit has a pair of dynamic performers in seniors Curtis Painter under center and Korey Sheets at running back. The Boilermakers have covered only three of their last 17 October tilts.
Line – Penn State by 11
Forecaster – Purdue covers
Auburn (-4) at Vanderbilt 6 pm ET
Vanderbilt is 4-0 and excitement is building in Nashville on a weekly basis for their college team. Emotions will run high and over 70% of early bettors side with the visiting Tigers laying 4-points.
Ready or not, Vanderbilt has made their first appearance in theTop 25 in 24 years. Coach Bobby Johnson has gotten the troops to believe and they stand at 4-0 SU and ATS, with three outright underdog upsets.
The circumstances for Vanderbilt could hardly set up any better with Auburn coming to town. The Tigers are off three strenuous conflicts with Miss. State, LSU and Tennessee. However, the ‘Dores have lost an unlucky 13 consecutive games to the Tigers and are 2-7 ATS since 1990 against Auburn.
Still you can’t overlook the facts; Auburn is 90th in total offense in the country and has yet to grasp the new offense. The Tigers are 0-8 ATS off a no-cover where the team won as a favorite over the last three seasons.
Line – Auburn by 5
Forecaster – Auburn covers
Ohio State (-1) at Wisconsin 8 pm ET
OSU quarterback Terrelle Pryor has shown to be ultra-talented but his team has played without fire most of the season, including last week against Minnesota, with a 34-21 non-cover. In Ohio State’s favor is they have won their last 11 Big Ten road games and are 9-2 ATS in the process.
It was a shocking 27-25 defeat for Wisconsin at Michigan last week, blowing a 19-0 halftime lead. What Wisconsin needs to do is play their game. Rushing yards won’t come easy against the Buckeyes, but they need to keep pounding away to take their will.
The Wisky defense has to be more stout versus the Ohio State running game and see if Pryor is really that talented of a passer in a tough environment. The last four years, Wisconsin is 14-7 ATS as a single digit favorite or underdog.
Ohio State has held the opposition to 95.2 yards per game rushing and Wisconsin is 0-6 ATS versus rushing defenses allowing 120 or less rushing yards a game. Look for this Big Ten encounter to come down to the red zone. Neither can afford to miss key opportunities.
Line – Wisconsin by 4
Wisconsin covers
Missouri (-10.5) at Nebraska 9 pm ET
Nebraska was a seven-point home favorite over Virginia Tech and now are a 10-1/2 point home dog. Almost 90% of early bettors think Missouri is just that good, backing them as double-digit favorites.
Nebraska is still a good team, and their Outplay Factor number thus far (+17.6) proves it. Missouri’s is just 2.5 points higher at this point, meaning both teams are of elite caliber. Therefore, there’s really no reason for the lofty double-digit pointspread.
Let’s not forget the Tigers’ historical troubles in Lincoln. Since ’92, Nebraska is 8-0 in this series at home, playing to an average line of -23.2 and winning by a 38-11 count. Missouri HC Gary Pinkel would be happy enough to just walk out of this game with a win, never mind the pointspread.
After three games of essentially flawless offensive football, Missouri scored “only” 42 points against Buffalo in what Pinkel called a “comedy of errors”. Three different wide receivers lost fumbles; the special teams allowed their first kickoff return in Pinkel’s seven plus seasons in Columbia.
New head coach Bo Pelini has endured himself with Big Red fans, meshing a previous pass-happy attack with a running game that is part of the Nebraska culture. Though far from complete based on present talent, Pelini has improved the schemes to match players’ abilities and restored confidence.
Nebraska is 14-2 ATS in Lincoln verus very good offensive teams scoring 34 or more points a game and will be juiced with history on their side. After being mauled by Missouri 41-6 last season, they are looking for revenge.
Nebraska covers
