NFL: PARKER DOMINATES GAME AND PROPS
Pittsburgh Steelers running back, Willie Parker could be the key to their Thursday night game against Cincinnati as well as to big payoffs in a number of proposition odds.
The Steelers are 11-point favorites against the Bengals with the Over/Under just 34.5. The game is being broadcast on the NFL Network beginning at 8:15 pm ET. There is about an even split betting wise with 48% backing the home team.
Parker appears healthy after dealing with both knee and shoulder injuries this year. He proved that last week against the San Diego Chargers when he rushed for 115 yards in an 11-10 win.
There is a special prop this week for Parker whether his first rushing attempt will be over 3.5 yards. Parker is averaging four yards per carry for the year and was 4.6 last week against San Diego. His first carry in the Chargers game was for four yards.
These are also special odds on whether Parker will score a touchdown this week. ‘Yes’ to that prop is -150 while ‘No’ is +120. He has four touchdowns on the year in the five games he has played, but three of those came in the opening week.
Parker is the key to the Pittsburgh offense because they should be able to run on Cincinnati. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger seems like his shoulder is fine, but they need to do a better job capitalizing when they get in the redzone.
‘Big Ben’ threw for 310 yards last week and they had 410 yards of total offense, but all they had to show for it was three field goals and a safety. Having Parker pound in a couple of touchdowns could make the difference between covering the spread in this game or not.
The key man on the Cincinnati side is quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. He has started six of the last seven games in place of the injured Carson Palmer.
Fitzpatrick threw for 261 yards last week against Philadelphia in their overtime tie, but his previous high was just 164 yards. One of the reasons his yardage is low is that he doesn’t take a lot of shots down the field even though they have talented wide receivers in Houshmandazeh and Chad Johnson.
Pass attempts are also at a premium as Fitzpatrick threw either 20 or 21 passes in all of his first five starts. He had 29 against Philly but only 20 in regulation. That is incredible consistency and why the prop for his number of completions is 21.5.
The recent Bengals strategy of dinking and dunking it down the field, along with running Cedric Benson, is not going to work in this game against this Steelers’ D.
In order to keep this game within 11-point spread, Cincy must go deep down the field more often, even though it will open them up to the Pittsburgh pass rush and potential interceptions.
That’s a risk they’ll have to take.
