Football Betting: NFL & NCAAF Weekend Top Game Preview And Analysis
All those months of work on college football betting are about to pay off. Bowl season starts this weekend, and although the first few games are small in stature, the matchups themselves should be entertaining and the lines have some wiggle room.
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It’s like betting on non-conference games in September, except we have a full season of hard data at our disposal.
We’ll look at the first three bowl games in this week’s betting preview, then it’s off to the NFL for a pair of high-profile NFC contests with plenty at stake. All times are Eastern, and the freshest lines are always just a click away at Bodog Sports.
New Mexico Bowl: Wyoming vs. Fresno State (Saturday, 4:30 p.m., ESPN)
Fresno State (8-4 SU, 7-4 ATS) is making its return to the New Mexico Bowl after losing last year’s edition 40-35 to the Colorado State Rams (+2). Colorado State ended up last in the Mountain West this year, but the former doormats from Wyoming made themselves bowl eligible at 6-6 (8-3 ATS) by beating the Rams 17-16 in the season finale. The football odds have Fresno State favored by 11 points (-105) this year. The Bulldogs are the superior team across the board, and the weather in Albuquerque should be pleasant enough to keep the FSU offense rolling. The Cowboys have scored just 16.9 points per game this year; the Bulldogs were twice as successful at 34.3 points per game.
St. Petersburg Bowl: Central Florida vs. Rutgers (Saturday, 8:00 p.m., ESPN)
Last year was the first ever St. Petersburg Bowl, won 41-14 by the USF Bulls over the Memphis Tigers. You’ll find the Bulls in the International Bowl this year (against Northern Illinois) as the No. 6 seed in the Big East. Rutgers (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS) goes to Tropicana Field instead this year as the No. 4 seed, while Conference USA is sending the very profitable UCF team at 8-4 SU and 9-2 ATS. This will be a virtual home game for the Knights, who are based in nearby Orlando and feature a strong defense. The Scarlet Knights have been inconsistent with their running game, and WR Tim Brown remains uncertain for this game with an ankle injury.
New Orleans Bowl: Middle Tennessee St. vs. Southern Mississippi (Sunday, 8:30 p.m., ESPN)
The New Orleans Bowl welcomes back last year’s winners from Southern Miss, who engineered a fourth-quarter comeback against the Troy Trojans (-4.5) and prevailed 30-27 in overtime. This year, the Golden Eagles (7-5 SU, 6-5 ATS) are the No. 5 seed in C-USA and favored by four points (-105) against the Blue Raiders, who lit up the Sun Belt at 9-3 SU and ATS to finish one game behind Troy for the conference title. Southern Miss has won all three of its New Orleans Bowl appearances at 2-1 ATS coming out of the stronger conference in this matchup, and the Eagles have had ample time to prepare for Middle Tennessee’s spread formations.
Dallas at New Orleans (Saturday, 8:20 p.m., NFL Network)
The Saints (13-0 SU, 8-5 ATS) have moved up to 7.5-point favorites (-105) in this contest after opening at -7, and the total has inched upward from 53 to 53.5 points. That’s par for the course, as the betting public continues to inflate the line on New Orleans (2-5 ATS in its last seven) while staying away from yet another December swoon in Dallas (8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS after dropping a pair this month). The Cowboys have yet to decide whether LB DeMarcus Ware (neck) will play; he’s due for more tests and needs to be medically cleared before suiting up.
Green Bay at Pittsburgh (Sunday, 4:15 p.m., FOX)
The Packers (9-4 SU, 8-4-1 ATS) are holding down the first wild card spot in the NFC ahead of Dallas, while the defending champion Steelers are on the verge of elimination at 6-7 (4-9 ATS) after dropping five games in a row at 1-4 ATS. All five losses were by a touchdown or less, and two went into overtime, but the winning teams included Oakland, Kansas City and Cleveland. And yet the Steelers are still getting the benefit of the doubt as 1-point favorites (-115) with a total of 41. It’ll be a chilly afternoon at Heinz Field, in the high 20s with a 25 percent chance of snow.
