NCAAF: QUICK HITS
Is it time to fade the picks in Quick Hits?
After giving bettors a number of winning weeks last season, Cras is having a tough time figuring out the increasingly complicated NCAA schedule and the numerous upsets of the top-ranked teams.
Even he admits that this week’s picks may be worth a fade after a disappointing 1-3 record last Saturday.
Here’s what he’s thinking this week:
Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ Maryland Terrapins
Maryland is unbeaten at home this season and has covered both spreads they’ve had while playing at Byrd Stadium. Only 13% of early bettors like the Terrapins in this one though and that can be attributed to a 31-0 blowout to Virginia as 13-point favorites last weekend.
Meanwhile, the Demon Deacons downed Clemson 12-7 as one-point dogs in their last game. Wake Forest, 3-2 against the spread this year, has been a profitable team over the past few years and I expect them to build on this year’s bankroll this week.
Pick: Wake Forest -2
Vanderbilt Commodores @ Georgia Bulldogs
The Commodores were bound to lose eventually in the always tough SEC but last week’s loss to a then 1-4 Mississippi State Bulldogs hurts their credibility. Granted, Mississippi State had been playing tough, but after Vanderbilt wins over South Carolina, Mississippi and Auburn, many expected a much different result.
But, that’s life in the SEC. Every game is tough and any team is capable of winning on game day. It’s for that reason that I love the points in this game. Vanderbilt got 14.5 points from oddsmakers two years ago and beat the Bulldogs. Last year they covered as seven-point dogs. Georgia is likely to win but they haven’t covered their last two spreads.
Pick: Vanderbilt +14.5
LSU Tigers @ South Carolina Gamecocks
The Florida Gators blew out the LSU Tigers last weekend by an astounding 30 points. The 51-21 final was the first loss of LSU’s season and a hard dose of reality for a team that was talking a lot in the media in the week leading up to the game.
That was the third time in the last four games that LSU failed to cover a spread but as 2 ½-point favorites this weekend, the spread may be a bit more manageable than some of the big spreads they’ve faced. The Tigers, 28-16 winners over South Carolina last year, need a similar result to get their season back on track after last Saturday’s rout. I expect they get that.
Pick: LSU -2.5
Stanford Cardinal @ UCLA Bruins
Each team has been profitable in recent weeks, going 3-1 ATS over their last four games. UCLA covered as 19-point underdogs last week, losing 31-24 to Oregon, while Stanford won 24-23 over Arizona as seven-point underdogs.
UCLA lost to Arizona 31-10 last month in the second of back-to-back blowout losses. The Bruins seemed to have righted the ship since those losses but Stanford has proven to be a tough Pac-10 foe for several teams and I think they have it in them to steal this game.
Pick: Stanford -1.5