Monday Night Double
Baseball still exists. It’s true – we checked to make sure. But this is the first week of the 2009 NFL season, and our first opportunity to bet on Monday Night Football. The suits at ESPN are getting their money’s worth with a special MNF doubleheader. We wouldn’t dream of leaving you hanging without previewing these two matchups.
Buffalo at New England (7:00 p.m. Eastern)
The Patriots were 11-point favorites (-115) at press time with a total of 47. This is a bit more humble of a start for New England than last year, when the Pats were coming off their undefeated 2007 regular season and laying 16 points at home to Kansas City. You hardly ever saw spreads that big before. Then again, you hardly ever saw an offense as dominant New England’s.
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Patriots’ fans are banking on a revival now that Tom Brady (50 TD, eight INTs in 2007) is back under center for the first time since that game against the Chiefs, when his left knee gave way during a tackle by safety Bernard Pollard. Brady appears to be his usual self; what matters for handicappers is how the offense around him looks. And it looks just a little less dominant than the 2007 model.
The skill positions are all-beef. Randy Moss and Wes Welker are still there for Brady to use, with Joey Galloway providing veteran support. The running back situation is much the same; Fred Taylor has been added to the mix and could become an important part of this team, given the number of injuries they’ve had in recent years. But the offensive line has lost some of its depth. Russ Hochstein was traded to Denver, and Mark LeVoir is on the PUP list to start the season. They’d otherwise be useful to a line with some weaknesses on the right side.
They’d be even more useful in Buffalo. The Bills tried to implement a relatively complex no-huddle offense with a group of young linemen, and the experiment was blown up before the season even began with the firing of offensive coordinator Turk Schonert. It’ll be up to Demetrius Bell (zero NFL games played) to man the left tackle position and protect QB Trent Edwards after Langston Walker was cut last week. Without Marshawn Lynch (suspension) to carry the ball for the first three weeks, Edwards is in for a miserable Monday night.
The Patriots are 10-0 (8-2 ATS) over the past five years (including preseason action) with the over cashing in both times in 2007. We’re looking at mostly clear conditions over Gillette Stadium in what should be a beautiful night for football – the high-scoring kind, that is.
San Diego at Oakland (10:15 p.m. ET)
The Chargers are listed as 10-point road favorites (-650 on the moneyline) with a total of 43 as they make the short trip to Oakland, where the weather should be just as accommodating for over bettors. San Diego eclipsed the Brady-less Patriots last year as the best offense in the NFL according to efficiency, and Philip Rivers led the league with 34 TD passes (to just 11 picks) and a passer rating of 105.5. However, the Chargers defense fell apart and the team barely made the playoffs at 8-8 (7-8-1 ATS). Rivers didn’t even make the Pro Bowl because of this.
San Diego can expect much better results on defense this year with the return of elite linebacker Shawne Merriman. Oakland’s offensive line was one of the worst in the league in 2008 at both run blocking and pass protection; Merriman recorded at least 10 sacks in each of his first three seasons (leading the league in 2006 with 17) and went to the Pro Bowl. It’s not a good combination for Raiders supporters, even with the arrival of center Samson Satele from the Dolphins. Satele couldn’t nail down the starting job after offseason shoulder surgery and will back up Chris Morris.
The differences at the other end of the field are even more glaring. Oakland wasn’t a complete disaster defending the pass last year, but star holdover Nnamdi Asomugha will play at cornerback with a sore wrist. Meanwhile, safety Gibril Wilson is now with Miami after getting released in February, making an already awful run defense that much worse. Rivers shouldn’t have much trouble shredding this defense.
The Chargers are 10-0 (9-1 ATS) in their last 10 meetings with the Raiders, with a pair of overs and a push against the total in their last three games. The over is 7-0 in San Diego’s last seven September games and 7-1 in Oakland’s last eight.
