Sportsbook.com – Week 1 NFL Odds
With the NFL draft having concluded, we can now all turn our complete focus to the upcoming NFL Gambling season. Other than select free agent signings or players being released still to come, most of the NFL rosters are in place for 2010.
With that, Sportsbook.com one of our top NFL sportsbooks has released its line for Week 1 of the regular season schedule. If you’ve been following the draft and other offseason news, this might be the perfect time to wager on the opening week action, as the lines are sure to move between now and then and you don’t want to miss out on even a single point of value.
For each game, favorites are listed first, with the home team in CAPS.
NEW ORLEANS (-4, 53) over Minnesota
New Orleans is of course the defending Super Bowl champion, having beaten Minnesota in the NFC title game this past January. The Vikings are still waiting on Brett Favre to announce whether or not he is coming back. With that uncertainty and home teams boasting a 7-1 SU & 5-1-2 ATS record in the Thursday season opener, the logical choices are Saints and UNDER.
NEW YORK GIANTS (-7, 41) over Carolina
I get leery of prices this high in Week 1 games, especially considering the fact that the Giants were just 3-8 SU in their L11 games of the ’09 season. Carolina finished the season on a 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS run, including a 41-9 whipping of the Giants at the “Old Meadowlands” in Week 16. Look for a tighter game than expected at the official opener of the “New Meadowlands”.
Miami (-2, 38) over BUFFALO
It says a lot about a team when you glance at their season schedule and see that they play all 16 of their games at 1PM ET on Sunday. Such is the case for the 2010 Buffalo Bills. While nice for the Bills’ fans to start a routine, clearly odds-makers don’t expect much from them this season. Buffalo ranked dead last in the NFL in yards per play last season and doesn’t figure to improve all that much. Miami is the pick.
PITTSBURGH (-1, 41) over Atlanta
One of the biggest stories of this offseason has been the troubles of Steelers’ QB Ben Roethlisberger, who has been suspended for the first six games of the season because of his transgressions. The suspension clearly has a lot to do with this pointspread, as the Steelers were no less than a field goal favorite in any home game last season. Quarterback uncertainty and the departure of WR Santonio Holmes make Atlanta an attractive play here in conjunction with UNDER the total.
CHICAGO (-7, 43.5) over Detroit
An inter-divisional dual kicks off the season for the Lions and Bears. Chicago is a pretty steep favorite here despite finishing just 7-9 a year ago. Still, why shouldn’t they be? The Lions have seemingly found a permanent place at the bottom of the NFC North standings. However, many experts are optimistic about chances for a Lions revival in 2010, with franchise QB Matt Stafford leading the offense and #2 overall draft pick Ndamukong Suh anchoring the defense. Intriguing underdog here…
NEW ENGLAND (-6.5, 44.5) over Cincinnati
Looking at this opening pointspread, you wouldn’t know it that Cincinnati was the one of these two teams to have reached the postseason last year. However, the Bengals were badly exposed as pretenders by the Jets in consecutive weeks. For the season, Cincy outscored its opponents by just 0.2 points per game. New England meanwhile, was +7.2 PPG for the season, and should be at full strength for this opener. The Patriots would figure to be the choice here.
TAMPA BAY (-1.5, 36.5) over Cleveland
It’s more than strange to see a team that finished the 2009 season with a 3-13 record opening up as a favorite for the following season’s opener, but that is what we have in this contest as Tampa Bay hosts Cleveland. The Bucs played some of their best football down the stretch, but then again, so did Cleveland, who won its last four game outright and its last seven against the spread. The Browns are now being led by GM Mike Holmgren, who has made an immediate impact. They figure to have former Carolina QB Jake Delhomme under center, and his veteran presence is the difference in this “upset”.
JACKSONVILLE (-2, 42) over Denver
Both Denver and Jacksonville lost their last four games of the 2009 season to fade completely out of the playoff picture. One of them will lose a fifth straight game here. If you consider that the host Jaguars are 2-point home favorites, you have to believe that Sportsbook oddsmakers believe the Broncos are the better team before applying home field advantage. I tend to agree since Jacksonville was outscored by nearly 6.0 points per game last year while Denveroutscored its opponents. Denver wins in a low-scoring tilt.
Indianapolis (-3, 48) over HOUSTON
When we last saw Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts, they were left wondering what could have, and perhaps, what should have been in February’s Super Bowl. The Colts were favored, and as such, were expected to win. They’ll have to pick up the pieces of that disappointment as we head into 2010, as most experts believe the window of success is closing on them. Meanwhile, the Texans come off their most successful season ever at 9-7 and are gunning for Indy. This should be one of Week 1’s best games. Perhaps think about buying a half-point on this line.
TENNESSEE (-8, 42) over Oakland
Apparently Sportsbook odds-makers don’t buy too much into the Raiders’ acquisition of former Redskins’ QB Jason Campbell, as they’ve installed Oakland as a 8-point opening week dog to a Titans’ team that didn’t even reach the playoffs last year. Now granted, Tennessee played real well once Vince Young took over at quarterback again, but to me, this seems like a line based upon the public’s perception of the Oakland franchise. I don’t plan on overpaying on this one.
PHILADELPHIA (-1, 46) over Green Bay
The 2010 season marks a new era in Eagles’ football, one that is without Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook, the offensive stars of most or all of the past decade. The replacements are unprovens Kevin Kolb and Lesean McCoy. Still, odds-makers see enough to make Philly an opening week favorite over a Green Bay team that is a popular Super Bowl pick. Is it justified or simply a mistake? In my humble opinion, it is the latter. McNabb’s loss is being badly undervalued and the Packers hence enjoy a huge offensive edge in this game with QB Aaron Rodgers on the cusp of becoming a NFL star. His team was 7-0-1 ATS in the second half of 2009 while scoring 30.8 PPG.
SEATTLE (Pk, 39) over San Francisco
For those of you that haven’t tuned in to a single word of NFL offseason coverage, Pete Carroll has taken over the Seattle Seahawks. He has been very influential in a dizzying array of offseason moves that could put the Seahawks back in contention for the NFC West title. San Francisco has also built positive momentum under Mike Singletary heading into 2010. The 49ers held five of their final eight opponents to single digit point totals last season in finishing 8-8. They were also 5-1 SU & ATS in divisional play. In my opinion, the pick em’ pointspread here tells me that the experts believe San Francisco is the better team.
Arizona (-3.5, 42) over ST. LOUIS
Quarterback Kurt Warner has retired from the Arizona Cardinals, and WR Anquan Boldin is now in Baltimore, leaving what amounts to nothing less than uncertainty on what was a powerful offense. They are nowhere near good enough on defense to immediately pick the slack. St. Louis meanwhile, hopes its future is in good hands with #1 overall draft pick Sam Bradford under center, or at least learning from A.J. Feeley in the early going. Still, the fact that the Rams were 0-8 at home last year and 1-15 overall leaves me uncomfortable in getting just 3.5-points.
Dallas (-4, 44) over WASHINGTON
This to me is the most “public” line of the opening week. Dallas is in a difficult spot here taking on a re-energized Washington team with new head coach Mike Shanahan making the decisions and Donovan McNabb executing the offense. Of course, the Cowboys have become known for their fast starts and odds-makers are probably bracing for that, hoping to see some even action. Dallas should win, but covering the 4-points might be a different story.
NY JETS (-3, 38.5) over Baltimore
Once again, the NFL opens up the Monday night schedule with a doubleheader, the first game being a dandy between the Jets and Ravens from the New Meadowlands. Both teams are considered contenders for the AFC title and both ranked in the Top 3 in the NFL in scoring defense last season. That’s not all they have in common. Both boast good young quarterbacks and both added big name weapons to their offenses in the offseason. And oh yeah, Jets’ head coach Rex Ryan used to be the d-coordinator for the Ravens. I personally believe Baltimore will be the better team in 2010 but I will buy a half point with them here.
San Diego (-5.5, 45.5) over KANSAS CITY
The back half of the opening MNF doubleheader pits San Diego and Kansas City. With all of the talk of RB LaDainian Tomlinson having moved on to the Jets, people are forgetting that the Chargers won their last 11 games of the regular season last fall, including 30 & 29 point decisions over the Chiefs. Kansas City won one game last season at home and really hasn’t produced any reason for optimism heading into this second campaign under Todd Haley. Chargers win this late night affair handily.
It should be an exciting first week of the NFL season. There is plenty to look forward to between now and then though so be sure to follow Sportsbook.com for updates throughout the summer and preseason. A lot can change between now and then with injuries, trades, signings, and even police reports!
