Week 4 Bengals vs. Browns Preview

NFL Betting Shocker Special – Watch out for the Browns this week

Well, NFL betting fans, do you still think I’m crazy? The Shocker Special urged you to pick Detroit over Washington last week and didn’t lead you astray. Let’s see if we can start a trend. This week’s pick probably seems just as crazy: the pathetic Browns to beat the surprising Cincinnati Bengals…or at least cover the 5.5-point spread.

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Spread: Bengals by 5.5
ML: Cinci -250 / Cleveland +210
O/U: 38

Here’s why it’s a smart investment:

Derek Anderson lives! Tired of seeing an ineffective Brady Quinn struggling to stretch the field, Eric Mangini will try Derek Anderson as his starting quarterback this week. The Browns have nothing to lose, ranking last in the NFL in total offense at 218 yards per game. Though Anderson is statuesque and mistake-prone, he’s not afraid to throw deep. He’s just two years removed from a 29-touchdown season and could quickly re-establish his rapport with Braylon Edwards. It’s not impossible to pass on Cincinnati; they allow 240 yards per game through the air. Betting software projects at least a respectable performance from Anderson.

Cincinnati’s pass protection is shaky. Carson Palmer probably wishes first-round pick Andre Smith was healthy and/or not fat. Though the Bengals’ line has opened up enough daylight to make Cedric Benson an effective runner, they’re letting teams get to Palmer. He’s been sacked seven times in three games.

The Browns are desperate and playing at home. Mangini has practically lost the room already; the Browns aren’t cohesive, they can’t score, they can’t defend…they may be the worst team in the NFL. However, anyone who makes NFL picks should know that football shocks us every single week. The Browns could see this week’s matchup as a potential rallying point. The Dawg Pound fans will be rabid, perhaps enough to motivate Cleveland’s pass rushers into frustrating Palmer.

The Bengals are still the “Bungles.” Ask any hapless Bengals fan; Cincinnati has a tradition of always doing exactly what everyone doesn’t expect them to do. Week 1 was supposed to be a slam dunk against Denver and the Bungles lost on a ridiculous, last-second fluke touchdown. They were supposed to get blown out by the Packers in Week 2 and upset them. They had no chance against the defending Super Bowl champion Steelers in Week 3 and came from behind to win. Now, in Week 4, the Bungles are favorites again, expected to cruise over the pathetic Browns. Would it not be so fittingly “Cincinnati” to blow this game?

The Bengals are clearly the better football team and plenty of sportsbook action will thus go their way. But you should never underestimate the NFL’s ability to turn conventional logic on its head.

Free Bengals vs. Browns Pick

When this game comes down to a last-second field goal, don’t say I didn’t warn you.

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