This Week’s PGA Tour Predictions!
The PGA Pros move to Orlando this week to tackle Bay Hill and the Arnold Palmer Invitational. 120 of the best golfers on the planet will tee it up this week on Bay Hill’s par 72, 7,419 yard layout including the top 5 in the current world golf rankings. One huge omission is Tiger Woods who has won this event eight times.
2015 Arnold Palmer Invitational
Date: March 19 – 22, 2015
Location: Bay Hill Club and Lodge Orlando, Florida
Total Purse: $6,200,000
Winner Share 18% of total purse – $1,080,000
Defending Champion: Matt Every
***2015 BONUSES***
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Elite ball striking is one of the essential stats to look at ahead of this week – scoring on the par 5s will likely be the difference between a good and a bad week. That said it has been sleepers that have done well here in the past – Matt Every won last year (I picked him at 80/1!!!) and Martin Laird prevailed in 2011.
So who should we keep an eye on this week? Is there any huge payday on the horizon again? Let’s break it down.
2015 Arnold Palmer Invitational Favorites:
Rory McIlroy 11/2
Rory enters the week as the favorite in name only – his recent game hasn’t been elite. He was T9 at Doral and has 11 top 10s worldwide in the 9 months or so. He makes his debut at this event to honor the contributions of Arny to the golf world.
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I love Rory but have reservations supporting him this week based on zero course history and just OK recent form.
Bubba Watson 11/1
Poor Bubba had allergies last year and was forced to withdraw. He did finish inside the top 25 in the three years prior however. He has four top 15s on TOUR to start his year including a third place finish at Doral and is arguably the best player in the world right now. Any time Bubba tees it up he has to be in the conversation – this week is no different.
Henrik Stenson 11/1
Stenson is in some sort of groove right now – fourth place finishes the last two weeks after consecutive 13th place finishes overseas. He is the best ball striker in the world, has made the cut in the past five years here, and in the last two years Stenson has finished in the top eight including a T-5 last year. Stenson is due for a win – it may well come here!
2015 Arnold Palmer Invitational Contenders:
Jason Day 16/1
Day is better in tournaments where accuracy isn’t absolutely essential – this week is a spot where he can be a little wild and still post some good numbers. His scrambling numbers are terrific and his putter is one of the best on the planet. He was T31 at WGC-Cadillac last time out and last played this track in 2013 when he finished T45. He’s solid for sure but course history and present form has me scared off here.
Adam Scott 18/1
Adam missed the cut last week – seriously! I guess we can blame the putter! He was T3 in this event last year – he led after each of the first three rounds. Scott is certainly better than he has been playing – he should be good to go on a track he loves.
Hideki Matsuyama 28/1
Matsuyama’s stats seem to be Taylor-made for this track – he is inside the top 45 in scrambling, he is a top 20 ball striker on TOUR and ranks second on TOUR in par 4 scoring. He has quietly been one of the better players on TOUR but is sneaking up on nobody anymore. In a weakfish field, Matsuyama could be THE MAN.
J.B. Holmes 40/1
Holmes seems like some good value here – a solo second at Doral has him firmly on the radar. He has never missed a cut in 8 tries here – impressive and he did record a 10th place finish here last year. Ride ‘em while he’s hot!
Kevin Na 40/1
Has finished inside the top 10 in the last two weeks – a 66 in the final round last week opened my eyes! He has played well here too – a T2 in 2010, and a T4 in 2012.
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He’s 23rd in scrambling on TOUR, 38th in par 3 scoring, 40th in par 4 scoring and 18th in par 3 birdie or better. Na looks like decent value here – course history and present form are on his side.
2015 Arnold Palmer Invitational Sleepers (50/1 or higher):
Martin Laird 55/1
Won here in 2011 and has been playing very well so far this year – a T-33 last week, T-7 at the Farmers Insurance Open, T-5 at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, and T-15 at the Humana Challenge. Laird is under the radar this week but should be in the mix on Sunday.
Graham DeLaet 55/1
You’ve seen his name mentioned by me in the past for sure – he has to win some time! He’s 15th on TOUR in All-around, 6th in total driving and 34th in ball striking. DeLaet did miss the cut at the Honda last time out by is too good to have that happen again.
2015 Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks:
The pick this week is Henrik Stenson at 11/1. He has hovered around the leaderboard the last two weeks with no payoff – this week he gets his.
The sleeper is Martin Laird at 55/1 – he has been good recently and also holds a win on this track.
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