2011 PGA Championship Preview | Picks – Cappers Picks Blog

PGA Betting – PGA Championship Preview & Pick

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PGA Betting – PGA Championship Preview & Pick

LAST WEEK: After a horrible miss two weeks ago, we were back in the hunt with Lee Westwood at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. He finished ninth but couldn’t keep pace with the sizzling Adam Scott.

Date: Aug. 11 – 14
Event: PGA Championship
Course: Atlanta Athletic Club in Johns Creek Georgia
Purse: $7,500,000
Defending Champ: Martin Kaymer
Winning Share: $1,350,000
FedEX Cup Points Up For Grabs: 600

On to the PGA Championship, the year’s final major.

The PGA at Atlanta Athletic Club projects to play tough this year. It’s a long par-70 at 7.463 yards. Big hitters are guys to watch here – but not just big hitters. You need a full arsenal of shots to win this week, so guys who have the total package of driving, putting and ball striking will be ideal picks.

THE ELITE

Rory McIlroy
PGA Championship odds: +800

Last week’s performance at Firestone suggests he’s heating up again. He was 68 or better in all four rounds. That bodes well for the budding superstar this week. His length off the tee (seventh on Tour) – not to mention his sharp approaches (14^th in GIR) make him a true favorite this week.

THE CONTENDERS

Lee Westwood
PGA Championship odds: +1500

Westwood has two camps at this point in his career: those who believe it’s still just a matter of time before he wins a major and those who don’t think he’ll ever do it. He has nine top-15s in his last 10 starts and five top-three finishes in his last eight majors. But what concerns me about that last stat is that he had a very real chance to win five times and couldn’t separate himself from the pack any of those times.

Tiger Woods
PGA Championship odds: +1500

Nothing to see here. Tiger will not contend. He’s a different animal now. It’s time to face it.

Luke Donald
PGA Championship odds: +1500

Will Donald put the exclamation mark on a banner season? His putter is up to snuff and his accuracy was dead-on last week, when he led the field in greens hit on route to a runner-up finish. He’s as strong a pick as anyone.

SOLID PICKS

Steve Stricker
PGA Championship odds: +2000

Love Stricker’s putter, love his scrambling, love the year he’s having. But I never endorse Stricker at majors. He doesn’t play his best golf with the big boys at the tough courses. A top-10 finish wouldn’t surprise me, though.

Dustin Johnson
PGA Championship odds: +2000

Given his bombs off the tee, his ability to hit greens and his fine performance in recent majors, including a second-place finish at the 2011 Open Championship, we shouldn’t count Dustin Johnson out. However, his putter is cold right now and the greens should be tough to navigate this week.

Jason Day
PGA Championship odds: +2500

Day seems to be trending toward a major championship. He finished second at both the Masters and the U.S. Open. He’s generally been in the hunt more often than not this season, finishing fourth last week, where he struck the ball well and his putter was on. He’s an excellent choice and offers better value than some of the other big names.

THE SLEEPER

Webb Simpson
PGA Championship odds: +6000

Despite all the huge names in the field, it’s Webb Simpson of all people who leads the PGA Tour in all-around ranking this season. He’s 18^th in total driving, 17^th in GIR and he’s rattled off six straight top-20s. If he can overcome the heebie-jeebies associated with never having won a PGA tournament, he could make noise this week.

THE PICK

Hmm. Fees like we have an embarrassment of riches to choose from in our golf picks this week. Can anyone stop Rory McIlroy? Aren’t Lee Westwood, Luke Donald, Dustin Johnson and Jason Day all due to win? Even guys who didn’t even make my list like David Toms (who won at this course in 2001) and Zach Johnson warrant consideration.

But, the way I see it, Westwood, Donald and Johnson have all burned me once already this season. McIlroy looks fierce but his +800 isn’t a great ROI. Time to give Jason Day his chance. The kid seems to be in contention at every major event and appears to have nerves of steel.

Aussie Adam Scott found glory last week. Time for the trend to continue with his countryman, Jason Day.

2011 PGA Championship pick: Jason Day +2500

2011 USPGA Championship – Odds to Win – Updated Betting Odds

Rory McIlroy 10/1
Lee Westwood 14/1
Luke Donald 14/1
Phil Mickelson 20/1
Tiger Woods 20/1
Martin Kaymer 28/1
Adam Scott 20/1
Dustin Johnson 25/1
Steve Stricker 25/1
Nick Watney 28/1
Jason Day 25/1
Matt Kuchar 33/1
Sergio Garcia 40/1
Rickie Fowler 25/1
Charl Schwartzel 40/1
K.J. Choi 66/1
Hunter Mahan 50/1
Graeme McDowell 80/1
Anthony Kim 66/1
Bubba Watson 50/1
Jim Furyk 80/1
Padraig Harrington 80/1
Justin Rose 80/1
Retief Goosen 80/1
Paul Casey 100/1
David Toms 50/1
Charles Howell III 100/1
Zach Johnson 40/1
Robert Karlsson 80/1
Sean O’Hair 100/1
Ian Poulter 100/1
Matteo Manassero 100/1
Ernie Els 100/1
Geoff Ogilvy 80/1
Y-E Yang 80/1
Brandt Snedeker 80/1
Darren Clarke 125/1
Webb Simpson 80/1
Aaron Baddeley 100/1
Ross Fisher 125/1
Fredrik Jacobson 80/1
J.B. Holmes 125/1
Martin Laird 80/1
Andres Romero 100/1
Jonathan Byrd 150/1
Ryan Moore 80/1
Bill Haas 100/1
Bo Van Pelt 80/1
Stewart Cink 100/1
Brian Gay 175/1
Francesco Molinari 100/1
Steve Marino 175/1
Gary Woodland 80/1
Louis Oosthuizen 125/1
Camilo Villegas 150/1
Davis Love III 125/1
Lucas Glover 80/1
Rory Sabbatini 150/1
Peter Hanson 100/1
Scott Stallings 200/1
Alvaro Quiros 150/1
Angel Cabrera 100/1
Anders Hansen 150/1
Ben Crane 150/1
Jeff Overton 125/1
Edoardo Molinari 175/1
Brendon De Jonge 125/1
Spencer Levin 150/1
Vijay Singh 150/1
Jhonattan Vegas 200/1
Brian Davis 200/1
Thomas Bjorn 150/1
Robert Allenby 125/1
Richard Green 150/1
Simon Dyson 100/1
Keegan Bradley 125/1
Jason Dufner 175/1
Robert Garrigus 200/1
Carl Pettersson (Suspended) 1/100
Scott Verplank 200/1
Raphael Jacquelin 200/1
Thomas Aiken 250/1
Ryo Ishikawa 80/1
Kevin Streelman 150/1
Charley Hoffman 150/1
Jerry Kelly 250/1
Ricky Barnes 150/1
Ryan Palmer 150/1
Kyung-Tae Kim 125/1
Trevor Immelman 125/1
Alexander Noren 125/1
Oliver Wilson 150/1
John Senden 150/1
Miguel Angel Jimenez 175/1
Heath Slocum 200/1
Bryce Molder 175/1
Shaun Micheel 300/1
Matt Jones 300/1
David Horsey 300/1
D-A Points 200/1
Kevin Na 175/1
Wen-Chong Liang 400/1
Yuta Ikeda 400/1
Cameron Tringale 200/1
Arjun Atwal 400/1
Fredrik Andersson Hed 300/1
Gregory Bourdy 300/1
Chris Kirk 150/1
Seung-yul Noh 200/1
Charlie Wi 200/1
Johan Edfors 250/1
John Rollins 200/1
Ryuji Imada 250/1
Brandt Jobe 200/1
Stephen Gallacher 200/1
Tommy Gainey 250/1
J.J. Henry 250/1
Brendan Steele 250/1
Bill Lunde 300/1
Jose Maria Olazabal 400/1
Pablo Larrazabal 300/1
Jamie Donaldson 200/1
Johnson Wagner 250/1
Harrison Frazar 300/1
Steve Elkington 300/1
Rocco Mediate 400/1