Texas Open Betting
The PGA TOUR’s Florida swing is finally complete and the pros move to Texas this week to play the Valero Texas Open. TPC San Antonio is a par 72 track that will play 7,435 yards – four par 3s and four par 5s – the par 5s were among the most difficult set to hit on TOUR last year.
2014 Valero Texas Open
Location: San Antonio, Texas, United States
Course: TPC San Antonio – AT&T Oaks Course
Date: Mar 27-30, 2014
Total Purse: US $ 6,200,000
Winner’s Share: US $ 1,116,000 (18% of total purse)
Golf Odds from Bovada
Defending Champion: Martin Laird ($1,116,000)
Long hitters and premier ball strikers will likely be atop the leaderboard this week but the ones with accuracy tend to be the ones standing at the end. Adam Scott, Charley Hoffman, Martin Laird and Rory McIlroy are all former winners that have all of these qualities – they hit fairways and have an ability to score on the par 5s. Greens in Regulation, Proximity and Stroked Gained Putting are also stats to keep your eyes on.
So who should we be keeping an eye on this week? Let’s break it down.
I hope you were paying attention last week – if you were – you may have gotten a nice payday with my sleeper Matt Every who won at 80/1 odds!
The Favorites:
Matt Kuchar 16/1
Kuch largely struggled his way through Florida – a T13 and a T22 his last two starts. He hasn’t been terrific at San Antonio either – a 9th, a T13 and a T38 on this track have me looking elsewhere. But then again, Kuchar is one of the premier ball strikers in the world – capable of breaking out at absolutely any time.
Phil Mickelson 16/1
Surprisingly Phil has yet to finish in the top 10 this year! He hasn’t played here since 1992 which is a bit of a concern although he is coming off a T16 at Doral in his last start. I still don’t trust Phil but you never, ever know when Lefty tees it up!
Zach Johnson 16/1
He has won this event twice but missed the cut the only time it was held at San Antonio. His present form isn’t exactly awe-inspiring either – a T33, T16 and T43 in his last three starts. He like all the favorites will be looking for a good result ahead of the Masters but like the other faves I’m looking elsewhere.
The Contenders:
Jimmy Walker 20/1
Texas boy has fallen off a tad but is still the FedEx Cup points leader. His history here isn’t great – a T3-MC-MC-T31. He has been OK in his last two starts including a T25 at Doral but he hasn’t exactly been setting the world on fire. Walker isn’t the most accurate driver of the golf ball – something that could be a detriment this week.
Jordan Spieth 20/1
Will play this course for the third time – the other two resulted in a T41 and a MC. But at no time in his career has he been in such fine form. It’s a pretty short field this week and Spieth looks like one of the more talented guys out there – this could be his tourney to lose!
Charley Hoffman 25/1
Hoffman loves this track – four appearances and four top 13 finishes. He has gone T13-T2-T13-T3 last year. He has been good this year as well – three top 10s and three more top 25s on TOUR already. Course history and current form has me taking a long look at Hoffman in this watered-down field.
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Jim Furyk 25/1
Finished T3 here last year and has a good chance to match that against an average field this year. He is a very accurate driver of the golf ball and is coming off a respectable T20 at Copperhead – his third top 25 on the season. Furyk is at or near the top of my list to prevail this week.
Ryan Palmer 25/1
Has been OK on this track – a T9-MC-T32-T15 in his four starts at TPC San Antonio and his stats line up very well with this course – 19th in GIR, fourth in par 5 scoring average and 10th in par 4 scoring average. We haven’t heard a ton from Palmer this year but this could be the week.
Brendan Steele 33/1
Steele has one win his PGA career and it came here. He has been playing OK ahead of this tourney as well – a T10, T33 and T20 in his last three TOUR starts. He also had a T4 here in 2012. His game is obviously well suited for TPC San Antonio and he enters this week in good form.
Fredrik Jacobson 33/1
Has finished inside the top 20 in his last three PGA TOUR stats including a T10 at Bay Hill and now gets to play a track he has historically done very well at – a solo 2-T5-T18-T15 run in his four stops at TPC San Antonio. Look out for Jacobson this week – he should be right in the mix Sunday.
Jason Kokrak 33/1
Hard not to love what this guy has done lately – he finished fourth last week to go along with a slew of top 15 finishes on TOUR this year. Some more success on the weekend is all that is holding him back. Kokrak finished T15 here last year and his driver alone should keep him in the fold this week.
The Sleepers (50/1 or higher):
Cameron Tringale 50/1
Has finished inside the top 10 twice here – 2011 and 2012 and has made eight straight cuts ahead of this week. He loves this track and could be a factor in this less-than-scintillating field.
Martin Laird 50/1
Defending champion here also has a T9 to his credit on this track. Laird has barely been heard from this year but his stats GIR (22nd) and par 5 scoring average (7th) matches up very well with this course. His form is sketchy at present but was before last year’s Valero as well.
Pat Perez 50/1
Had a T5 here last year and played well last week before an ugly 83 on Sunday dropped him to T67. Perez has been OK this year and is an intriguing 50/1.
Ryo Ishikawa 66/1
Will play TPC San Antonio for the first time this week but is coming off a good T8 at Bay Hill. He has been remarkably consistent this year – three top 10s and another four top 25s. He is T12 in par 5 scoring which should help him immensely this week.
The Pick:
The Pick this week is Jordan Spieth at 20/1. The Texas boy will be motivated to do well in his home state. Spieth will be a major player at the Masters this year and he starts to ramp up this week.
My sleeper is Ryo Ishikawa at 66/1. He has been good this year and against a slightly watered down field this could be his week.
