U.S. Open Prediction
Golf’s second Major of 2014 comes our way from North Carolina this week when the US Open is contested on Pinehurst #2. The world’s best minus Tiger Woods will tee it up looking for one of the most prestigious titles on TOUR.
2014 U.S. Open Championship
Location: Pinehurst, North Carolina, United States
Course: Pinehurst #2
Date: Jun 12-15, 2014
Total Purse: US $ 8,000,000
Winner’s Share: US $ 1,170,000 (15% of total purse)
Golf Odds from Bovada
Defending Champion: Justin Rose ($1,440,000)
Pinehurst #2 is a par 70, featuring just a pair of par 5s, 12 par 4s and four par 3s. It will play 7,565 yards – one of the longest stops the players will play and at par 70 it promises to be extremely difficult to score on.
Obviously length off the tee will be a determining factor and will be a high ball flight, but maybe more importantly will be putting – Pinehurst’s greens will feature some dramatic slopes and some lightning-quick conditions. Scrambling will also be important this week as will overall course management as always in US Opens.
That said there is a threat of poor weather each day which could slow the greens and takes some of the focus on premium ball-striking.
Finally it is rare to see a sleeper come out of nowhere and win the US Open – Michael Campbell in 2005 was the one exception I can remember off the top of my head. One of the top dogs will likely prevail – choosing which one is the trick here.
So who will emerge? Let’s break it down.
The Favorites:
Rory McIlroy 10/1
Rory enters the US Open as favorite and the 2011 champions. He has been good this year, not terrific but seems to have the right mix of length and high ball flight to make some noise here. His last four starts have resulted in a T8, a sixth, a win, and a T15. He is trending upward and has shown well in soggy US Opens in the past.
Adam Scott 12/1
The World #1 has had his issues at the US Open – 12 starts with just six cuts with a T15 in ’02 being his best result. But that was then and this is now – no player is in better form than Scott. His form is terrific, his skills fit this track very well and his confidence right now is off the charts. It’s pretty hard to bet against Scott right now – that’s for sure.
Phil Mickelson 14/1
Could achieve the career grand slam this week but Phil has ZERO top 10s so far this season – amazing! He can hit it long and his touch around the greens should serve him well this week. Phil always shows up at UP Opens but his present form has me looking elsewhere this week!
The Contenders:
Bubba Watson 18/1
By now we should all realize that the style of course shouldn’t matter – Bubba will be a contender. He was third two weeks ago at Memorial in his tune-up in a tournament he should have won and is sixth on TOUR in GIR, fourth in adjusted scoring, second in bogey avoidance. On a long track expected to play longer because of the rain, Watson could emerge with his first ever US Open victory.
Henrik Stenson 25/1
Hasn’t made a ton of noise on TOUR this year but has strung together four top 10s in his last seven events played worldwide hand has gone T34, T7 and a fifth in his last three worldwide. He has finished top 30 in the US Open four straight times but seems a little out of sorts to warrant my support this week.
Jordan Spieth 25/1
Has actually played two US Opens – a T21 at Olympic and a MC at Merion. Spieth has made a habit of showing up huge the bigger the event this year and has 13, count ‘em 13 top 20s on the season. He is a good scrambler, a decent putter and we all know he can hit it long. Could this be the week for a Spieth breakthrough?
Justin Rose 25/1
Defending champ had a T4 at THE PLAYERS and has been in the top 15 regularly. His lack of control off the tee could be an issue here but a player of this class will always be in the conversation at Majors.
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Matt Kuchar 25/1
Has five top 30 finishes in his last six US Open appearances and is coming off a T15 at Memorial after an uncharacteristic missed cut at Colonial. He leads the TOUR with nine top 10s this year – as consistent a player as there has been. He will be after his first Major this week but tends to rely on a low ball flight – not exactly ideal for this track.
Jason Day 28/1
Has three US Open starts with two runner-up finishes but has been dealing with his share of injuries the last couple of months. He tends to hit the ball high which is a major benefit here. If he had played a bit more before this weekend, he’d be among the favorites but as it stands he is too risky to trust.
Dustin Johnson 33/1
Long hitter could have some success here – he has three top 25s in his last four starts overall and like Day, utilizes a high ball flight that is necessary Pinehurst. If Johnson can hit some greens he is an instant contender!
Lee Westwood 33/1
Form isn’t great at present by he always shows up in Majors.
Sergio Garcia 33/1
Gotta take a hard look at Sergio his week. The world’s #8 ranked player leads the PGA TOUR in adjusted scoring, bogey avoidance and par-4 scoring. He finished T3 here in the 2005 US Open and had a T# in his last US start – THE PLAYERS but had some issues including a slight knee injury in Europe. Garcia is due – he just may get it done on a track he’s had success on in the past.
Hideki Matsuyama 40/1
Won the Memorial a couple of weeks ago against a decent field and had a T10 in the US Open last year. He ranks T23 in scrambling and 16th in adjusted scoring and despite a lack of appearances on the biggest stages has to be in the conversation.
Jason Dufner 40/1
Has finished T4 in the last two editions of the US Open and has been playing well of late – a loss in a playoff to Adam Scott at Colonial and a T19 at Memorial. He may have issues with the length and his putter has been a bit of a letdown lately – best to look elsewhere!
Jim Furyk 40/1
2003 champ isn’t exactly a bomber off the tee but does lead the TOUR in scrambling and ranks fourth in bogey avoidance. He also has two runner-up finishes to go along with the win making him one of the most consistent US Open competitors. He has finished T17 and T28 when the Open has been held here and is an intriguing 40/1.
The Sleepers (50/1 or higher):
Charl Schwartzel 50/1
May be the best value on the board right now – he has seven top 10s in his last 10 starts and has made 6 of seven cuts at the US Open with a T9 in 2009 being his best finish. He has however finished top 10 in two of the last 3 Opens and he does have top 11s in two of his last three starts overall.
Webb Simpson 50/1
The 2012 champ plays in his home state this week where he has excelled. He hadn’t been great this year before a better performance last week – a T3 at Memphis. He ranks seventh in all around and could be a factor this week.
Keegan Bradley 66/1
Has certainly been up and down the last few months but his game suits this track very well – he hits long and high. Bradley is due for a breakout and it could come this week.
Bill Haas 80/1
Has finished T26, T21 and T8 at Memorial in his last three starts overall but hasn’t been great un US Opens in the past – he has two cuts made in five starts. He would do well to finished top 20 here – a win is a serious longshot.
Billy Horschel 80/1
Has been playing better of late – it’s about time. His last two starts have resulted in a T15 at Memorial and T6 in Memphis. He ranks fifth on TOUR in GIR – something that will come in handy this week.
The Pick:
The pick this week is Bubba Watson at 18/1. It was either him or Adam Scott but Scott was just a tad obvious. Length is key at Pinehurst and nobody has the combination of length and touch as Watson.
My sleeper is Charl Schwartzel at 50/1. Getting him at this price is mighty nice, Schwartzel has a good history at US Opens and his present form is also terrific. Charl is a steal this week.
