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2014 PGA Shell Houston Open Betting Odds Preview | Picks

Houston Open Betting

The PGA pros will head to Houston this week for the final tune-up for the first Major of the year – the Masters that comes our way from Augusta next week. The Golf Club of Houston will play 7,441 yards and is a par 72 that the organizers purposely set up to emulate Augusta in a number of ways.

2014 Shell Houston Open
Location: Humble, Texas, United States
Course: The Golf Club of Houston
Date: Apr 3-6, 2014
Total Purse: US $ 6,400,000
Winner’s Share: US $ 1,152,000 (18% of total purse)
Golf Odds from Bovada

Defending Champion: D.A. Points ($1,116,000)

Success on the par 4s and par 5s will be critical this week – scrambling and proximity to the hole are notoriously difficult on this track as well – keeping the ball in the fairway and taking only what the course gives you is the best bet. Keep an eye on the GIR stats as well as strokes-gained putting when making your picks.

So who should we keep our eye on this week – let’s break it down.

The Favorites:

Rory McIlroy 9/1

Rory is the biggest name in the tournament but certainly isn’t the hottest. He was last seen finishing T25 at Doral after six straight op 10s – one being at T2 at the Honda. Rory has had his issues on this track as well – a T19 is his best ever result here. He is capable of breaking out at any time of course but on this course it may be too much to ask.

Dustin Johnson 14/1

Johnson has arguably been the most consistently good player on TOUR this year – five starts in stroke play events and five top 10s. He is the TOUR leader in a host of statistical categories – too many to name and he did finish T4 on this track last year. He is coming off another T4 in his last start and is the one to watch this week.

Henrik Stenson 16/1

Had a T5 at Bay Hill last time out and looked more like the Stenson from last year – hitting fairways and greens with regularity! His last two starts on this track have also been very impressive – a T3 in 2009 and a T2 last year. Stenson is better than he’s been playing and looks to get himself in peak form ahead of the Masters.

The Contenders:

Jordan Spieth 22/1

Had a horrible opening round last week but finished a very respectable T10. That makes a T34 (Doral), a T20 (Valspar) and a 10th (VTO) over his last three starts – trending upward as we near the first major. He has four top 10s on TOUR this year and despite a T50 here last year is a dangerous contender this week.

Keegan Bradley 22/1

Finished T5 at Bay Hill and could be in the midst of one of his patented Hot Streaks. He co-led field in fairways hit and hit the most GIR last week – perfect attributes for this track. Bradley was T2 here last year – his second straight top 10 on this track. He has to be on the radar this week!

Matt Kuchar 22/1

Is coming off a T4 at San Antonio – his fifth top 10 finish of the season. He has back-to-back T8s in this event – his game is perfectly suited for this type of track. Kuchar has been relatively quiet this year but he could be poised to make some noise this week.
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Sergio Garcia 22/1

Will play here for the first time since 2009 – he finished T77. He has been remarkably consistent – 12 straight top 20s but he has been unable to break through with a win over that span. His T8 at the Honda and T16 at Doral certainly brings a sense of optimism ahead of this year’s Masters.

Hunter Mahan 28/1

Makes his first start since a back injury sent him to the sidelines. He won this event in 2012 however and has three top10s on this track and a T11 to go along with it!

Bill Haas 33/1

Is quietly playing pretty well right now – top 25s in his last four starts including a T6 at Doral. He finished T10 here last year and is one of those guys you can never count out.

Graham DeLaet 33/1

I have been pumping this guy’s tires for a while now – his stats are too good for him NOT to have a win on TOUR! He had a T3 here in 2010 and is coming off a T8 at Copperhead last time out after a 75 in the opening round. He is going to win sometime – the trick is predicting exactly when!

Luke Donald 40/1

Is coming off a T4 at Copperhead and has the putter to make some noise this week. He hasn’t played this event since 2010 but enters in decent form.

The Sleepers (50/1 or higher):

Jason Kokrak 50/1

Had a bad weekend at the Valero but finished ninth in total driving and GIR. He finished ninth here last year and enters this year in much, much better form. He, like Graham DeLaet is a threat to win a big tournament – he just needs to put four rounds together!

Charles Howell III 66/1

Has finished T19 and T10 in his last two appearances here and has five top 10s on the season already. He ranks seventh in GIR and sixth in adjusted scoring – good stats for this type of track. Howell is playing well and is an intriguing 66/1 shot this week.

Charley Hoffman 66/1

Has played this course very well – 7-for-7 with a top 10 and three top 25s. He is coming off a T11 at Valero- certainly trending in the right direction ahead of this week! His game is well suited for The Golf Club of Houston – another interesting 66/1!

The Pick:

I am very temped to take Graham DeLaet this week but he has burned me before. That said I am going with Keegan Bradley at 22/1. He seems to be peaking right now and will be looking to ramp up for the Masters. He has top 3 finishes in his last two appearances here and is eager to snap a 20 month drought this week.

My sleeper is Jason Kokrak at 50/1. He, outside of one horrible round last week has been terrific the last two months or so.

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