Memorial Predictions
A very deep field heads to Ohio this week to play the 2013 Memorial Tournament at the revamped Muirfield Village Golf Club. As always, hitting the fairways shouldn’t be much of an issue but hitting the green and an emphasis on a good second shot is. Muirfield Village ranked seventh-lowest in greens hit in 2012 at 58.05 percent.
2013 Memorial Tournament
Location: Dublin, Ohio, United States
Course: Muirfield Village Golf Club
Date: May 30 – Jun 2, 2013
Total Purse: US $ 6,200,000
Winner’s Share: US $ 1,116,000 (18% of total purse)
Odds from Bovada
Defending Champion: Tiger Woods ($1,116,000)
Adding to the challenge is that it checked in at fifth in scrambling (51.61%) and fifth in conversion percentage (85.52) inside 10 feet.
The greens will be super-slick this week and the weather should be superb on a track that will host the President’s Cup in about four months time. Let’s take a look at some of the names to keep an eye on this week and what should play out in what is sure to be another intriguing week of PGA golf.
The Favorites:
Tiger Woods 9/4
Tiger is on fire this year with four wins already and his track record here is like any other – five wins and another three top 5s in 13 visits. He is the defending champ here and enters off a win at the PLAYERS. He is #1 on TOUR is a host of categories including strokes gained-putting and adjusted scoring. Pretty tough to bet against the most dominant player in the game on a course he has absolutely torn up in recent years!
Rory McIlroy 16/1
Is coming off a missed cut from last week – inconsistency has been a theme of Rory’s game this year. He finished T10 at Muirfield Village in 2010 and solo fifth in 2011 and then missed the cut here last year. He has four top 25s on TOUR this year but is increasingly hard to trust because of his inconsistency.
Adam Scott 18/1
The Masters champ is coming off a T19 at the PLAYERS and he is 6/7 here with a couple of top – the last one coming back in 2007. He hasn’t played all that much this year – not enough to qualify for the relevant stats kept but we know one thing – he is one of the two or three best Big-Tournament players in the game right now. He is pretty hard to ignore although he hasn’t finished top 30 here in five years.
The Contenders:
Matt Kuchar 20/1
Had the lead last week after 36 and 54 holes and ended up second at Colonial. He has four straight top 10s in at Muirfield and only one missed cut in seven starts including a runner-up in 2011. Kuch has been good all year but may find it difficult this week to keep it all going against a terrific field.
Justin Rose 25/1
Has a very good history here – 6/8 with a win in 2010, a runner-up and four top 10s (five top 25s). He is coming off a fifth last week at Wentworth to continue his good, not great 2013 campaign. Rose is third in total driving on TOUR, 11th in greens in regulation, sixth in adjusted scoring, eighth in scrambling and first in sand saves – perfect traits for this track.
Brandt Snedeker 28/1
Surprisingly has never made a cut here in five tries but his game is pretty good at the moment – 12th on TOUR in greens in regulation, 14th in strokes gained-putting and fifth in adjusted scoring. Sneds always seems to be in the mix – this week should be no different.
Luke Donald 28/1
He’s 7/8 here and finished inside the top 15 in each of his last four starts at Muirfield Village. He is coming off a missed cut last week however at Wentworth in a tournament he won two straight times prior to last week. He is 19th on the PGA TOUR in strokes gained-putting and 12th in adjusted scoring and has to break out some time doesn’t he?
Lee Westwood 28/1
Has finished in the top 10 in five straight tournaments worldwide and is coming off a nice week at Wentworth last week – a T9. He has only one start on this track – a T29 way back in 2003. Experience certainly won’t be on his side although form will be. He is 15th on the PGA TOUR in adjusted scoring and should be on your radar this week.
Charl Schwartzel 33/1
Actually missed a cut last week and enters in arguably the worst form we’ve seen from him in a year. But he’s 5/5 at Muirfield Village with two top 25 and is T35 in greens hit, 28th in strokes gained-putting and first in three-putt avoidance on TOUR this year. He’s pretty hard to trust this week although a bounce back is definitely a possibility.
Keegan Bradley 33/1
Finished second the last time we saw him – at the HP Byron Nelson Championship but has yet to record a win this year. He is 11th in adjusted scoring average on TOUR and has to break through some time! Not sure he will spit his way to victory here!
The Sleepers:
Webb Simpson 50/1
Simpson at 50/1? He last played at the PLAYERS a couple weeks ago where he was a respectable T15 and he has three other top 10s this season on TOUR. He finished T7 on this track in 2011 so we know that he has an affinity for this course. It’s not too often you’ll see a golfer of this caliber in the Sleepers category! [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Jim Furyk 50/1
Ditto for Furyk! He has played this event a staggering 17 times and has made the cut 16 times including a win, two runner-ups and 12 top 25s. He is a tad difficult to figure out based on form but if experience has anything to do with it, he should be competitive.
Billy Horschel 55/1
Will make his first start at Muirfield Village. He is coming off a rare missed cut at the PLAYERS but does have five top 10s this year. He is tenth in strokes gained-putting and T4 in par-4 scoring on TOUR this year and could be a factor this weeks as well.
Ernie Els 66/1
Has played this event 19 times and has 10 top 15s among those starts. He won here in 2004 and always shows up on this track. In his last seven starts worldwide this year, he’s logged five top 15s, including a T6 at last week’s BMW PGA Championship.
Jimmy Walker 80/1
Has made a PGA high 23 consecutive cuts and has four top 10s and another four top 25s on TOUR this year. He is 28th in greens hit, 24th in strokes gained-putting and 10th in adjusted scoring – all traits that make him dangerous this week.
Graham DeLaet 100/1
Has three top 10s and another four top 25s this season and looked good last week until a final round 74 saw him drop to a share of 22nd place. He is second on TOUR in both total driving and greens hit and is 13th in proximity and 26th in adjusted scoring.
The Pick:
No reason to get cute on this pick – Tiger Woods at 9/4 is the obvious choice. He is in the best form we’ve seen in years and he is a five time winner on this track already including last year.
My slightly less obvious pick is another former winner here Justin Rose at 25/1. If you hate the price on Woods (which I do) be sure to sprinkle a bit on Mr. Rose who may just be the second best golfer in the field.
My sleeper (and he’s hardly a sleeper) is Webb Simpson at the bargain price of 50/1. He’s played well this year and is deserving of a tournament win against a tough field. The US Open is just around the corner – Webb will be looking to ramp up for a possible repeat.
2013 Memorial Championship at Muifield Betting Lines & Future Odds
TIGER WOODS 9/4
RORY McILROY 15/1
ADAM SCOTT 20/1
MATT KUCHAR 20/1
LEE WESTWOOD 20/1
JUSTIN ROSE 25/1
BRANDT SNEDEKER 25/1
LUKE DONALD 30/1
CHARL SCHWARTZEL 30/1
KEEGAN BRADELY 30/1
WEBB SIMPSON 40/1
JIM FURYK 40/1
JASON DAY 40/1
DUSTIN JOHNSON 40/1
RICKIE FOWLER 50/1
HUNTER MAHAN 50/1
ZACH JOHNSON 50/1
BO VAN PELT 50/1
NICK WATNEY 50/1
BILLY HORSCHEL 50/1
BUBBA WATSON 60/1
ERNIE ELS 60/1
HENRIK STENSON 60/1
KEVIN STREELMAN 60/1
BILL HAAS 60/1
JORDAN SPIETH 80/1
JIMMY WALKER 80/1
MARC LEISHMAN 80/1
SCOTT PIERCY 80/1
JOHN HUH 80/1
CHARLEY HOFFMAN 80/1
K.J. CHOI 80/1
NICOLAS COLSAERTS 80/1
BRENDON DE JONGE 80/1
GRAHAM DeLAET 80/1
D.A. POINTS 80/1
CHARLES HOWELL III 80/1
MARTIN LAIRD 100/1
GEORGE COETZEE 100/1
BRANDEN GRACE 100/1
CHRIS KIRK 100/1
RYAN MOORE 100/1
CARL PETTERSSON 100/1
MATT EVERY 100/1
ROBERT GARRIGUS 125/1
GEOFF OGILVY 125/1
SANG-MOON BAE 125/1
RYO ISHIKAWA 150/1
GUAN TIANLANG 5000/1
FIELD (all others) 5/1
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