PGA Betting Predictions
The PGA Pros head to Illinois this week for the 2013 edition of the John Deere Classic. TPC at Deere Run hosts a slightly watered-down field on the easiest of the par-71s on TOUR.
2013 John Deere Classic
Location: Silvis, Illinois, United States
Course: TPC at Deere Run
Date: Jul 11-14, 2013
Total Purse: US $ 4,600,000
Winner’s Share: US $ 810,000 (18% of total purse)
Odds from Bovada
Defending Champion: Zach Johnson ($828,000)
This track has consistently ranks amongst the easiest in fairways hit and in greens in regulation – somebody is going to go low here!
Steve Stricker won this event three straight years between 2009-2011 – proof that consistency and an affinity for a cerebral approach is paramount. A hot putter, as always will serve the players well too!
So let’s take a gander at a few names entered this week and what could play out on Sunday.
The Favorites:
Steve Stricker 13/2
Mr. Stricker returns to his favorite track – three straight wins here between 2009-2011. His last event was a good T8 at the US Open so we know his game isn’t suffering due to an abbreviated schedule. He hasn’t missed a cut in just 7 starts on TOUR and has averaged 65.75 strokes per round in his last eight at this track. Stricker is the favorite for a reason – he owns TPC at Deere Run.
Zach Johnson 14/1
Is the defending champion here and is another that loves this track finishing inside the top three at TPC Deere Run in three of his last four trips. He like Stricker has been under par in his last 16 rounds with a slightly higher 66.94 average. Since his third at Colonial, he’s missed a cut and hasn’t finished inside the top 55 in two other starts. His past history makes him one to watch – his present form makes him one to shy away from!
Louis Oosthuizen 20/1
Louis has not been as much of a factor on TOUR as we would like but he is coming off a T17 at Greenbrier. He is certainly a threat in any event he tees it up in and against an average field has a chance to get his season kick started this week.
Keegan Bradley 20/1
Has never played this event before and is coming off a T18 at the Travelers. He has nine top 25′s this year although just two have come in his last nine events. Present form is off just like a lot of his John Deere competitors but you have to love Bradley’s game.
The Contenders:
Ryan Moore 25/1
Is one of those guys on the cusp but just can’t seem to put it all together. He is trending upward however – a T7 last time out in the Travelers and a couple other top 10s as of late. He is 4/4 here with a T8 last year and has seven straight rounds in the 60s on this track.
Scott Stallings 33/1
Is another guy that is a tad tough to figure out – a missed cut at the AT&T National was followed by a T23 at Greenbrier. He missed the cut here last year after a T22 in 2011 – nothing to make me lean either way. He could emerge this week however is an average field at the John Deere.
John Senden 33/1
Won this event in 2006 for his only title on TOUR – surprising! He did finish fourth here last year as well and is 7-for-10 here with another three top 15s and under par in 27 of his 32 rounds. His putter continues to be an issue – nice to see a Pro have the same issues as the rest of us!
Jordan Speith 33/1
Was in the hunt last week but stumbled to a final round 73 with zero birdies and a T23 finish when his putter completely abandoned him. But he has five top 10s this season, 7 top 25s. He is certainly on the brink of stardom – too bad about his putting! It all depends on his unreliable flat stick. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Brendon De Jonge 40/1
Has three straight top 20s in this event – two T7s and A T19 and is coming off a top 20 last week at The Greenbrier. He been in the 60s in 12 of his last 13 rounds and could be a factor here. He is second on TOUR in total birdies – something that will come in handy this week.
Charley Hoffman 40/1
Hoffman is 4/5 here and has a couple of top 15s in his appearances here – a T 15 in 2009 and added a T7 in 2010. Hoffman is that steady consistent player that could make a run here. His putter is good and his proximity to the hole stat lends itself well to this track. Ranking seventh in par breakers, 19th in adjusted scoring average 38th in SGP and 48th in proximity has certainly opened my eyes!
The Sleepers (50/1 or higher)
Kyle Stanley 50/1
Finished second in this event in 2011 and T19 last year and has three top 10s in his last eight starts although he hasn’t been terrific of late. He has 11 straight rounds under par on this track and is a very attractive 50/1 this week!
Camilo Villegas 66/1
Is finally showing signs of the potential that we all know he had – two top 10s and three other top 25s on TOUR this year including a T16 at the AT&T National. He has made 3 of 4 cuts in this event but hasn’t been near the top just yet. He is bound to break out with a win sooner or later – against this field – this may be his week!
Matt Jones 80/1
Worth mentioning because he has two fifth place finishes in this event but he has also missed the cut three times in this event. Jones also finished a career best T2 at the Greenbrier. Jones is playing well and now gets to play arguably his best event.
The Pick:
It may not be sexy by my pick is practical! Steve Stricker at 13/2 will be after his fourth John Deere Classic in five years against a slightly below average field this week. He showed that his light schedule hasn’t adversely affected him and get this – in his last 28 rounds here, he has just one that finished over par! Amazing.
My less obvious pick is Brandon de Jonge at 40/1. He has finished top 20 in the last three editions of this tournament and is at least worth a look.
My sleeper is Kyle Stanley at 50/1. He is too good to be going off at this price. 50/1 is too irresistible for a player that loves this course.
2013 Greenbrier Classic Odds
STEVE STRICKER 6/1
ZACH JOHNSON 12/1
KEEGAN BRADLEY 20/1
LOUIS OOSTHUIZEN 20/1
RYAN MOORE 25/1
NICK WATNEY 30/1
JORDAN SPIETH 30/1
CHARLEY HOFFMAN 30/1
BRENDON DE JONGE 30/1
JOHN SENDEN 30/1
SCOTT STALLINGS 40/1
HARRIS ENGLISH 40/1
LUKE GUTHRIE 50/1
CHARLES HOWELL III 50/1
GARY WOODLAND 50/1
CAMILO VILLEGAS 50/1
MATT JONES 50/1
BOO WEEKLEY 50/1
MORGAN HOFFMANN 50/1
JOHN ROLLINS 50/1
PAT PEREZ 50/1
KEVIN STREELMAN 50/1
KYLE STANLEY 50/1
JOHN HUH 60/1
K.J. CHOI 60/1
CARL PETTERSSON 60/1
BRYCE MOLDER 60/1
BRIAN DAVIS 60/1
CHRIS KIRK 60/1
ROBERTO CASTRO 60/1
D.H. LEE 60/1
JEFF OVERTON 60/1
BEN CRANE 80/1
RORY SABBATINI 80/1
DAVID HEARN 80/1
ANDRES ROMERO 80/1
DAVIS LOVE III 80/1
BRENDON TODD 80/1
CHARLIE WI 80/1
TED POTTER, JR 80/1
ROBERT KARLSSON 100/1
KEN DUKE 100/1
CHEZ REAVIE 100/1
D.A. POINTS 100/1
BRENDAN STEELE 100/1
JERRY KELLY 100/1
BUD CAULEY 125/1
SEUNG-YUL NOH 125/1
RYO ISHIKAWA 200/1
FIELD (all others) 9/4
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