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2013 BMW Championship Preview/Picks & Gambling Lines

PGA Betting Predictions

Conway Farms Golf Club in Illinois hosts the BMW Championship this week as the FedEx Cup creeps closer to its conclusion. The host course may not seem familiar and there is a reason for that. The PGA Pros haven’t visited unless they were involved in qualifiers or high end amateur tournaments.

2013 BMW Championship
Location: Lake Forest, Illinois, United States
Course: Conway Farms Golf Club
Date: Sep 12-15, 2013
Total Purse: US $ 8,000,000
Winner’s Share: US $ 1,440,000 (18% of total purse)
Odds from Bovada

Defending Champion: Rory McIlroy ($1,440,000)

In other words, the playing field is level heading into this week.

At 7,149 yards and par 71, distance off the tee likely won’t be the determining factor this week although there are three lengthy par 5s and some decent par 3s. The field of 70 will have their accuracy challenged this week – as always a hot putter on slick smallish greens will also be an asset.

So let’s take a look at some of the names to watch this week in the second to last FedEx Cup event of 2013.

The Favorites:

Tiger WOODS 11/2

Woods is coming off a T65 at the Deutsche Bank Championship. He enters this week with a sketchy history on courses he hasn’t torn up in the past but is No. 1 on TOUR in adjusted scoring and the all-around. To see him two weeks ago is to be cautious when supporting him this week. Still, he is Tiger Woods.

Adam SCOTT 12/1

Followed up a terrific win at the Barclays with a T53 last time out. He does have the all around game to make some noise this week though. On a course where virtually nobody has an edge you have to like a player as hot as Scott.

Henrik STENSON 12/1

Is still the hottest player on TOUR entering this week – five top 3s in his last six starts overall culminating in a win at TPC Boston. He sits fourth in total driving on TOUR and fifth in adjusted scoring and simply can’t be counted out this week. There is no shame in placing your dough on Stenson this week!


Looked good in the first round at the Barclays but struggled on the weekend to finish T41. You still never know which Mickelson is going to show up however. He is second on TOUR in strokes gained-putting, inside the top five in both par 3 and par 5 birdie or better percentage and first in par breakers. Phil is still elite but he scares the heck out of me!

The Contenders:

Justin ROSE 20/1

Has looked good during the FedEx Playoffs – all eight rounds under par. He was T2 at the Barclays and T16 at the Deutsche Bank Championship and is second in total driving on TOUR, 10th in GIR, fifth in proximity and third in adjusted scoring. Rose is also sixth in all around which fits this track very well. He looks back to form and should contend this week.

Steve STRICKER 20/1

Was second at the Deutsche Bank Championship and now has three seconds in just 11 starts this year. His game fits any course and he is as fresh as any player on TOUR right now. He is No. 1 in par-4 scoring and second in greens hit, adjusted scoring and the all-around. Stricker is due!

Matt KUCHAR 22/1

Has 14 top 25s in 21 starts this year – as consistent a player as there has been all year. He sits sixth in adjusted scoring on TOUR this year and is another player that can thrive on any sort of course.

Jordan SPEITH 22/1

You gotta love Speith – you gotta! He finished T4 at the Deutsche Bank Championship and sits third in all around on TOUR this year. Confidence is a funny thing – he will be out to show his inclusion on the President`s Cup team was fully justified! [soliloquy id=”82219″]

Jason DUFNER 25/1

Has three top 10s in his last four starts proving his PGA Championship win was no fluke. His putter is heating up to go along with his strong tee-to-green game. Duf and looks good ahead of this week.

Jason DAY 28/1

Has an incredible 10 top 25s on the season with just one win – somehow! He has been consistently good – a few more wins would be nice!

Luke DONALD 33/1

Is one of the few members that will be teeing it up this week at Conway Farms and experience on this track is his ace-in-the-hole. He has recorded two T41s in the first two events of the FedEx Playoffs although it seems he has played better than his results. Donald is the classic risk/reward player this week and if you believe in familiarity with surroundings, he could be your man.

Graham DeLAET 40/1

Not a whole lot to dislike about DeLaet`s game right now. He is No. 2 in the FedEx standings after a solo third at the Deutsche Bank Championship and his stats continue to catch my eye – first in total driving and third in GIR. DeLaet is due for a win and with a spot on the President`s Cup team sewed up he will be out to make some more noise this week.

The Sleepers (50/1 or higher):

Ian POULTER 50/1

Poulter seems to raise his game on the bigger stages and is certainly an intriguing 50/1.He finished T9 at the Deutsche Bank where he led the field in proximity to the hole and his game could be a good fit for this track this week.

Roberto CASTRO 80/1

Super sleeper is coming off a T9 at TPC Boston and has eight top 25s since THE PLAYERS. He is quietly one of the more consistent guys out there and could be a factor once again this week.

The Pick:

I have to go with Graham DeLaet at 40/1 this week – his consistent stats are just too good to ignore. He has played well on unfamiliar tracks all season long as a virtual newcomer on TOUR and this week he finally gets paid off for his incredible work.

My sleeper is Ian Poulter at 50/1. Putting could be the determining factor this week and we all know what Ian’s flat stick is capable of in pressure situations.

2013 BMW Championship Odds

Tiger Woods 11/2
Adam Scott 12/1
Phil Mickelson 12/1
Henrik Stenson 12/1
Justin Rose 20/1
Rory McIlroy 20/1
Steve Stricker 20/1
Matt Kuchar 20/1
Luke Donald 30/1
Jason Dufner 25/1
Jason Day 25/1
Lee Westwood 30/1
Charl Schwartzel 30/1
Keegan Bradley 30/1
Hunter Mahan 30/1
Dustin Johnson 30/1
Webb Simpson 30/1
Jordan Spieth 30/1
Jim Furyk 30/1
Brandt Snedeker 40/1
Sergio Garcia 40/1
Zach Johnson 30/1
Ian Poulter 50/1
Graham DeLaet 40/1
Bubba Watson 50/1
Rickie Fowler 50/1
Bill Haas 50/1
Graeme McDowell 50/1
Gary Woodland 50/1
FIELD (all others) 20-1



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