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2013 PGA Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview/Picks

PGA Betting – Arnold Palmer Championship Preview & Pick

The PGA TOUR moves to Orlando this week for the final stop on the Florida swing. Bay Hill hosts the pros this week and welcomes them with uber-slick greens, wind and length. It all adds up to being one of the most difficult Par 72 stops on TOUR.

2013 Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by MasterCard
Location: Orlando, Florida, United States
Course: Bay Hill Club and Lodge
Date: Mar 21-24, 2013
Total Purse: US $ 6,000,000
Winner’s Share: US $ 1,080,000 (18% of total purse)
Odds: Bovada

Defending Champion: Tiger Woods ($1,080,000)

Experience is key here as is a player’s ability to stick his approach anywhere close to the pin. Expect a lot of two and three putts this week – the winner will likely be the one with the occasional one putt.

So let’s break it down and focus on a few players to watch this week.

The Favorites:

Tiger Woods 5/2

Woods has absolutely owned Bay Hill – seven wins and career earnings nearly three times that of the next best! He had a win last time out – his second this year already and looks to be in Tiger-like form. He is the defending camp here by five strokes and this year is 5th Total Putting, 2nd All Around, 1st Scoring Avg., 2nd Par Breakers, 7th Par 4, 17th Proximity to Hole, 9th 3 Putt Avoidance – all perfect stats for success on this track. He’s pretty hard to bet against indeed!

Phil Mickelson 16/1

Has won one time at Bay Hill – 1997 but has struggled here since – no top 20s in his last five trips. He has played OK this year including a T3 at Doral a couple weeks ago but his recent form here makes me shy away.

Brandt Snedeker 18/1

Is coming off a win but also had some injury issues since. Sneds seems to be a factor in every event he plays – I would expect no less this week.

The Contenders:

Sergio Garcia 20/1

Garcia is riding a wave at the moment for sure. He has 13 top 25s in a row worldwide after his T7 last week in a tournament he ranked third in diving, T6 in greens hit and eighth in strokes gained-putting. Garcia has six top 10s in 11 starts in this event and should be in the mix Sunday.

Justin Rose 20/1

Has 12 straight top 25s and he tied for third here in 2011 and was T15 last year. He’s coming off a T4 and a T8 in his last two starts, so his form is solid. He’s only played 3 events this year but he does rank 2nd Scoring Avg., 3rd Driving Distance, 3rd Scrambling, 11th Par 4 Performance, 1st Scrambling from the Rough – all qualities he will need for success this week.

Graeme McDowell 22/1

Is the defending runner-up here. Last year he co-led the field in both fairways hit and greens in regulation. He has finished top 10 in his last three starts this year including a T3 at the WGC Cadillac and is certainly a threat this week as well. He is 4th Scoring Avg., 2nd Driving Distance, 2nd Scrambling and 35th in Proximity to Hole this year which should help this week.

Bubba Watson 25/1

Hasn’t been terrific this year and in turn is offering us some good value. He was T4 at Bay Hill last year when he led the field in distance off the tee and ranked T5 in GIR. He has quietly put together four top 20s this year and will be looking to ramp up for Augusta. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

Keegan Bradley 25/1

Had a fourth place at The Honda Classic and a solo seventh at the WGC-Cadillac and now has five top 25s in eight starts on the season. He missed the cut badly here in his only start last year but his game seems to suit this track fairly well.

Webb Simpson 33/1

Has struggled on this track – just one top-30 in six starts (T11, 2009). He has finished top 20 four straight times and his game looked OK last week despite not being able to sink a putt when needed. Despite the poor showing last year, Webb has to be on the radar.

Lee Westwood 33/1

Hasn’t played this event in four years but has made 9 of 10 cuts here in the past with six top 25s. Westy is always a threat – always!

Jason Dufner 33/1

Hasn’t quite found his form this year but has finished top 25 in two straight events. He finished T5 here last year ranking T5 in total driving an seventh in strokes gained-putting. He has yet to finish in the top 10 this year – it may be best to stay away!

Ian Poulter 33/1

Finished third here last year and T12 in 2011 and he does own one of the more magical putters in the game. Poulter is clutch indeed and on a track that putting is essential he’s worth a look.

Jim Furyk 40/1

Has finished T11 twice and T9 once at Bay Hill in the last three years and he is coming off a season-best T7 last week with nothing worse than a T35 in five starts. This year Furyk ranks third on TOUR in fairways hit, fifth in proximity and 19th in adjusted scoring.

The Sleepers:

Ernie Els 75/1

Has a tragic hip at the moment but enters as a former two-time winner here (1998 and 2010). He finished T4 here last year and he’s sitting at 75/1? He hasn’t been great this year but offers terrific value this week.

Graham DeLaet 100/1

Super-sleeper has finished top 21 in his last four starts and is 10th on TOUR in GIR. He has never won on TOUR but his name is one that keeps creeping up.

The Pick:

Obviously, the pick this week is Tiger Woods at 5/2. He plays this course like it is his own and he is in terrific form this year. It ain’t a great payday but any bet against Tiger is silly at best.

The sleeper is Ernie Els at 75/1. Ya he may be a bit banged up but he knows how to win on this track.

Our Updated FULL Field Arnold Palmer Invitational odds (Click to bet today)

TIGER WOODS 11/4
PHIL MICKELSON 15/1
BRANDT SNEDEKER 15/1
JUSTIN ROSE 15/1
SERGIO GARCIA 20/1
KEEGAN BRADLEY 25/1
BUBBA WATSON 25/1
GRAEME McDOWELL 25/1
LEE WESTWOOD 30/1
WEBB SIMPSON 30/1
JASON DUFNER 30/1
IAN POULTER 30/1
JIM FURYK 40/1
HUNTER MAHAN 40/1
RICKIE FOWLER 40/1
JASON DAY 50/1
NICK WATNEY 50/1
PETER HANSON 50/1
CHARLES HOWELL III 50/1
BILL HAAS 50/1
BO VAN PELT 60/1
ERNIE ELS 60/1
JIMMY WALKER 60/1
SCOTT PIERCY 60/1
ROBERT GARRIGUS 60/1
GEOFF OGILVY 80/1
GEORGE COETZEE 80/1
K.J. CHOI 80/1
RYAN MOORE 80/1
LUKE GUTHRIE 80/1
RUSSELL HENLEY 80/1
LUCAS GLOVER 80/1
GREG CHALMERS 80/1
GRAHAM DeLAET 80/1
BOO WEEKLEY 80/1
KEVIN STREELMAN 80/1
THORBJORN OLESEN 80/1
FRANCESCO MOLINARI 80/1
HARRIS ENGLISH 80/1
ZACH JOHNSON 100/1
CHRIS KIRK 100/1
JOHN SENDEN 100/1
BRENDON DE JONGE 100/1
HENRIK STENSON 100/1
BRANDEN GRACE 125/1
AARON BADDELEY 125/1
CARL PETTERSSON 125/1
RETIEF GOOSEN 125/1
TIM CLARK 125/1
FIELD (all others) 5/1
 

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About DaveB

Dave B has been a Fantasy Football writer for us for 10 years. A couch potato wannabe, Dave’s insights have been read by 10’s of people for years. He hope’s for world peace + global relaxation. Enjoy and remember only smoke things that are completely natural.


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