PGA Betting – Waste Management Phoenix Open Preview & Pick
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LAST WEEK: We were warm last week at the Farmers Insurance Open. Four guys from our watch list – Phil Mickelson, Dustin Johnson, Nick Watney and Bill Haas – cracked the top 10. Even our pick to win, Justin Rose, finished 25th, which isn’t horrible. Let’s see if we can build on that not-so-embarrassing showing this week.
THIS WEEK’S PGA BETTING
Date: Feb. 03 – 06
Event: Waste Management Phoenix Open
Course: TPC Scottsdale, Scottsdale Arizona
Purse: $6,100,000
Defending Champ: Hunter Mahan
Winning Share: $1,080,000
FedEX Cup Points Up For Grabs: 500
The Waste Management Phoenix Open? Brought to you by Tony Soprano? Do we really have to call it that? Groan.
I’m not gonna lie – the Phoenix Open is perhaps the quintessential needle-in-a-haystack tournament to handicap every year. The reason: there’s no particular style that dominates at TPC Scottsdale. We can’t look solely to ball strikers or big hitters or short-game guys or any one type of player. For that reason, our best bet is to chase who’s hot – and who can handle the atmosphere at arguably the Tour’s rowdiest event.
THE ELITE
Dustin Johnson
Waste Management Phoenix Open odds: +785
It’s pretty rare to see any golfer not named Tiger or Phil with odds of better than 10 to 1. But the books are really respecting the youngster Dustin Johnson. And bettors should, too. We know he’s a bomber off the tee but every facet of his game is clicking right now. He closed with a 66 en route to his third-place finish last week, led the field in birdies and was inside the top 10 in GIR and putting.
Phil Mickelson
Waste Management Phoenix Open odds: +1015
Phil is one of the more volatile players on Tour performance-wise – but that also means it’s prudent to bet him while he’s hot. He was second at Torrey Pines last week. He also has two wins at the Phoenix Open and the course record (60). Very solid play this week and offers better return for your investment than Johnson.
THE CONTENDERS
Rickie Fowler
Waste Management Phoenix Open odds: +1615
Fowler gets No. 3 billing but it’s more based on his name-value. He got worse as the Farmers Insurance Open progressed last week, going 65-71-73-74. There are hotter and safer picks in the field this week.
Nick Watney
Waste Management Phoenix Open odds: +1850
Sizzled with a 63 at the Farmers last Sunday but didn’t putt well for most of the week. Watney has made six of seven cuts at this tournament so he could be due for a win. Still – my gut says there are several guys with more momentum than he has this week.
SOLID PICKS
Anthony Kim
Waste Management Phoenix Open odds: +2050
I like Kim’s game for TPC Scottsdale, as he isn’t afraid to take risks and go for birdies. He’s started 2011 nicely, with a 19th, 13th and, last week, a sixth-place finish. He cracked the top 25 at the Phoenix Open last season, posting three rounds of 67 or lower. Keep a close eye on him. He’s also a charismatic guy who could flourish with the raucous crowd around him. 
Bubba Watson
Waste Management Phoenix Open odds: +2550
Bubba, who won last week, is one of golf’s most famously streaky players. Does that mean we should ride the wave – especially with pretty decent value of +2550? Not so fast. Bubba’s streakiness is contained within tournaments – not so much from week to week. After his one win last season, he missed two straight cuts. He also never posted consecutive top-10 finishes last year.
Hunter Mahan
Waste Management Phoenix Open odds: +2550
Trending in the right direction, with a 25th and a sixth-place finish and four of his last five rounds in the 60s to start 2011. He’s also the defending Phoenix Open champ, so it’s hard to fault picking him.
THE SLEEPER
Ben Crane
Waste Management Phoenix Open odds: +4050
If you want to go the ball-striking route, Crane could be your man. He was 14th last week and he also putt quite well, ranking fifth in the field. He was fourth at TPC Scottsdale three years ago, so he knows how to succeed there.
THE PICK
There are plenty of genuinely appealing options this week. Johnson is exploding into his prime; Kim’s game is nicely suited to the course; Mahan has the winner’s pedigree. But I’ll go with a classic pick and take Phil Mickelson this week. When Lefty catches fire, it’s best to ride him until his next slump, which is inevitable.
Waste Management Phoenix Open pick: Phil Mickelson +1015
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2011 Waste Management Phoenix Open Updated Betting Odds
Phil Mickelson 7/2
Dustin Johnson 5/1
Rickie Fowler 8/1
Nick Watney 9/1
Hunter Mahan 9/1
Anthony Kim 11/1
Bill Haas 12/1
Bubba Watson 12/1
Geoff Ogilvy 14/1
Charles Howell III 15/1
Ben Crane 16/1
Jhonattan Vegas 16/1
JB Holmes 16/1
Ryan Moore 20/1
Ryan Palmer 20/1
Brian Gay 20/1
Camilo Villegas 20/1
Kevin Na 20/1
Brandt Snedeker 20/1
Jonathan Byrd 20/1
Fredrik Jacobson 25/1
Vijay Singh 25/1
Sean Ohair 25/1
Robert Allenby 25/1
Mark Wilson 30/1
Marc Leishman 30/1
Lucas Glover 30/1
Boo Weekley 30/1
Pat Perez 30/1
YE Yang 30/1
Jeff Overton 30/1
Martin Laird 30/1
Vaughn Taylor 30/1
David Toms 30/1
Chad Campbell 30/1
Spencer Levin 30/1
Bo VanPelt 40/1
Brendon De Jonge 40/1
Robert Garrigus 40/1
Carl Pettersson 40/1
Rory Sabbatini 40/1
Ryuji Imada 40/1
Stuart Appleby 40/1
Chris Couch 40/1
Chris Kirk 40/1
DA Points 40/1
DJ Trahan 40/1
Jerry Kelly 40/1
John Senden 40/1
Justin Leonard 40/1
Kevin Streelman 40/1
Kevin Sutherland 40/1
Matt Jones 40/1
Andres Romero 40/1
Angel Cabrera 50/1
Alex Prugh 50/1
Fred Couples 50/1
Webb Simpson 50/1
Troy Matteson 50/1
Jimmy Walker 50/1
David Duval 50/1
Tom Gillis 50/1
Greg Chalmers 50/1
Heath Slocum 50/1
Chris Dimarco 50/1
Steve Elkington 50/1
Charlie Wi 50/1
Charley Hoffman 50/1
Bill Lunde 50/1
Aaron Baddeley 50/1
Michael Sim 50/1
Bryce Molder 50/1
Stephen Ames 60/1
John Rollins 60/1
Davis Love III 60/1
Jason Bohn 60/1
Kenny Perry 60/1
Matt Bettencourt 60/1
Jeff Quinney 60/1
Ricky Barnes 60/1
Brian Davis 60/1
Chris Riley 60/1
John Mallinger 60/1
Dean Wilson 60/1
Trevor Immelman 60/1
Alex Cejka 65/1
Tom Lehman 70/1
Derek Lamely 75/1
Tim Petrovic 75/1
Garrett Willis 75/1
Gary Woodland 75/1
Daniel Summerhays 75/1
JJ Henry 75/1
Joe Ogilvie 75/1
Billy Mayfair 75/1
Paul Goydos 75/1
Jamie Lovemark 75/1
Chad Collins 75/1
Jason Dufner 75/1
Shaun Micheel 75/1
Cameron Beckman 75/1
Michael Connell 75/1
Brett Wetterich 75/1
Nick Ohern 75/1
Jarrod Lyle 85/1
Ben Curtis 85/1
Chris Stroud 85/1
Blake Adams 100/1
Mark Calcavecchia 100/1
Kris Blanks 100/1
Kevin Stadler 100/1
Hunter Haas 100/1
Josh Teater 100/1
Fred Funk 100/1
Troy Merritt 100/1
Tim Herron 100/1
Chez Reavie 100/1
Rocco Mediate 100/1
Nathan Green 100/1
Ben Martin 125/1
Tommy Gainey 125/1
Jeff Maggert 125/1
Harrison Frazar 125/1
Jesper Parnevik 150/1
Steve Flesch 150/1
Cameron Tringale 150/1
JP Hayes 150/1
Brendan Steele 150/1
Rich Beem 200/1
William Mcgirt 200/1
Brandon Smith 250/1
