PGA Betting – FedEX Cup Playoffs – The Barclays Preview & Pick
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LAST WEEK: Even though we were wrong with last week’s pick, the result gives us hope. Webb Simpson won it. He was a guy repeatedly appearing on our watch list his peripherals suggested he was long overdue for a win. The numbers didn’t lie. So should we trust them this week?
The FedEx Cup playoffs begin this week in New Jersey with The Barclays, hosted by Plainfield Country Club. It’s not an overly long course; we’ll want accurate hitters who avoid the sometimes-ugly rough.
Date: Aug. 25 – 28
Event: The Barclays
Course: Plainfield Country Club, Edison, New Jersey
Purse: $8,000,000
Defending Champ: Matt Kuchar
FEDEX Cup Pts: 2,500
THE CONTENDERS
Steve Stricker
Barclays odds: +1200
I can’t fault anyone who calls The Barclays and open-and-shut case for Stricker. The man is accurate as can be and leads the Tour in putting, scrambling and scoring average. He has 11 top-20s in a row. It’s pretty much a lock that Stricker at least contends. 
Luke Donald
Barclays odds: +1200
Hit putter could come in handy and, after a little slump, he’s rallied for consecutive top-10 finishes. It seems like Donald plays better when he plays often. This week will mark his third PGA event in August. His fairway and green percentages have been good but not great. For the same value, Stricker seems like a better play.
Adam Scott
Barclays odds: +1500
If you play the hot hand, Scott could make sense. He’s brimming with confidence and finally seems to be realizing his potential this season. He’s above average off the tee and has a recent win to his name. He followed up his August 7 victory at the WGC-Bridgestone with a very respectable seventh-place finish at the PGA before taking a week off.
SOLID PICKS
Nick Watney
Barclays odds: +2000
The FedEx Cup points leader is third on Tour in putting, seventh in birdie average and third in scoring average. However, he’s struggled to keep the ball on the fairway, ranking 129th in driving accuracy. He hasn’t done much since winning the AT&T National, finishing T-87, T-23 and T-12, with eight of his last 10 rounds falling in the 70s.
Matt Kuchar
Barclays odds: +2500
Kuchar has been a mild disappointment after finishing 2010 so strongly (and winning The Barclays, albeit at a different course) but he’s still quietly fourth on Tour in the all-around. He’s not hot but his consecutive top-20s suggest he’s not cold either. He’s a decent value play.
Dustin Johnson
Barclays odds: +2500
There are plenty of reasons to love or hate Johnson this week. His big length could come in handy on a drivable par-4 18th hole and he’s 19th on Tour in GIR. But his putter has been poor and he’s struggled to find the fairway. It may be harder than normal for him to find greens this week. If he ends up in the rough or in the sand, he may not recover. Johnson has struggled to scramble this year and has been among the Tour’s very worst in sand saving.
Webb Simpson
Barclays odds: +3000
The peripherals certainly play in Webb Simpson’s favor again. He leads the Tour in all-around ranking and he’s been very consistent, posting seven top-20s in his last eight tries. The only thing going against him, of course, is how rarely players win consecutive events.
THE SLEEPER
Charles Howell III
Barclays odds: +4000
He’s quietly firing on all cylinders right now. Howell finished fourth at the Wyndham Championship last week to secure his fourth top-five in seven starts. He’s a top-25 guy in putting and greens in regulation. He’s making very few bogies of late and ranks ninth on Tour in scoring average. He feels due. Hard to believe he hasn’t won on Tour since 2007. He beat Phil Mickelson in a playoff to do it, so that should erase any doubts about him competing against a star-studded field.
THE PICK
This is an odd week in that I’m not crazy about any picks except for the very top guy, Stricker, and the bottom sleeper, Howell.
Since I’m not convinced Stricker is head and shoulders above Howell this week, why not pick the guy who offers more than triple the value?
Howell reminds me of Simpson last week in that he’s inching closer and closer to a win. He’s regularly appearing in the top five, he hasn’t missed a cut since May, he’s commonly dipping into the mid-60s.
The time is right to give him a shot.
2011 Barclays pick: Charles Howell III +4000
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2011 PGA Tour – Odds To Win The Barclays 2011 – Updated Betting Odds
Luke Donald 12/1
Adam Scott 16/1
Steve Stricker 16/1
Nick Watney 22/1
Jason Day 20/1
Rickie Fowler 33/1
Phil Mickelson 25/1
Matt Kuchar 25/1
Dustin Johnson 28/1
Webb Simpson 25/1
David Toms 33/1
Zach Johnson 40/1
Sergio Garcia 40/1
Charles Howell III 40/1
Jim Furyk 33/1
Hunter Mahan 40/1
Bubba Watson 50/1
Keegan Bradley 40/1
Robert Karlsson 50/1
Gary Woodland 40/1
K.J. Choi 66/1
Bill Haas 66/1
Justin Rose 66/1
Bo Van Pelt 66/1
Fredrik Jacobson 66/1
Aaron Baddeley 80/1
Retief Goosen 66/1
Anthony Kim 80/1
Martin Laird 66/1
Spencer Levin 80/1
Ryan Moore 80/1
Geoff Ogilvy 66/1
Andres Romero 66/1
John Senden 80/1
Vijay Singh 80/1
Scott Verplank 80/1
Ernie Els 66/1
Robert Allenby 80/1
Brendon De Jonge 80/1
Jason Dufner 100/1
Trevor Immelman 80/1
Jerry Kelly 100/1
Graeme McDowell 80/1
George Mcneill 125/1
Kevin Na 125/1
Pat Perez 125/1
Carl Pettersson 80/1
Ian Poulter 80/1
Chez Reavie 100/1
Brandt Snedeker 100/1
Camilo Villegas 80/1
Mark Wilson 100/1
Y-E Yang 80/1
Padraig Harrington 100/1
Chad Campbell 125/1
Stewart Cink 100/1
Ben Crane 100/1
Tommy Gainey 100/1
Lucas Glover 80/1
Chris Kirk 125/1
Davis Love III 80/1
Ryan Palmer 100/1
D-A Points 125/1
Rory Sabbatini 125/1
Cameron Tringale 150/1
Blake Adams 150/1
Chris Couch 150/1
Brian Gay 125/1
Hunter Haas 175/1
Charley Hoffman 150/1
Brandt Jobe 125/1
Steve Marino 125/1
Bryce Molder 150/1
Nick O’Hern 175/1
Scott Piercy 125/1
Brian Davis 125/1
Sean O’Hair 100/1
John Rollins 150/1
Ricky Barnes 150/1
Jonathan Byrd 150/1
J.B. Holmes 150/1
Jeff Overton 125/1
Heath Slocum 100/1
Robert Garrigus 175/1
J.J. Henry 200/1
Bill Lunde 200/1
Scott Stallings 150/1
Johnson Wagner 200/1
Jimmy Walker 175/1
Charlie Wi 175/1
