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2011 PGA Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview/Picks

Preview and free golf picks for the PGA 2011 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, which is hosted by Pebble Beach Golf Links, in Pebble Beach, California. The purse is $6.3 million, and the defending champ is Dustin Johnson…

PGA Betting – AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am Preview & Pick

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LOOKING TO BET ON THIS WEEK’S 2011 PEPPLE BEACH OPEN? CHECK OUT BETUS.com’s PGA Tour Betting Odds Today!!!!!

LAST WEEK: Phil Mickelson got us halfway there before the wheels fell off over the weekend. The next thing we knew, Mark Wilson won the Phoenix Open. He’s gone from no-name to two-time winner over a three-tournament span. I know it’s frustrating when guys like Wilson and Jhonattan Vegas surprise us – but those are the exceptions, not the norms. Educated picks will be rewarded soon enough. Stay the course!

THIS WEEK’S PGA BETTING
Date: Feb. 10 – 13
Event: AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am
Course: Pebble Beach Golf Links, Pebble Beach, California
Purse: $6,300,000
Defending Champ: Dustin Johnson
Winning Share: $1,116,000
FedEX Cup Points Up For Grabs: 500

The Pebble Beach Pro-Am will play very short this year and has notoriously small, tough-to-hit greens, so we should focus on accurate ball strikers who can hit greens this week.

THE ELITE

Dustin Johnson
Pebble Beach Pro-Am odds: +700

No surprise to see Dustin Johnson favored here. He’s the two-time defending champion at this event. While guys who hit greens fit the bill for success here, big hitters who can make birdies and eagles can also thrive. Johnson has been a top-30 guy and at least 10-under par to finish all three of his tournaments this year, so he’s a fine pick.

Phil Mickelson
Pebble Beach Pro-Am odds: +700

Lefty joins Johnson with “elite” odds for the second straight week. He last won the Pro-Am in 2007 but since then has a missed cut, a 55th and an eighth-place finish. His collapse last weekend is concerning. I’m not sure a cold Mickelson at a 7 to 1 payout is the guy you want to pick when the two-time defending champ has the same odds.

THE CONTENDERS

Nick Watney
Pebble Beach Pro-Am odds: +1600

Track record tells us Watney isn’t the play this week – he has one top-10 finish in seven attempts at this tournament. But if you like recent performance as your determining factor, it feels like Watney is due. He finished sixth and the Farmers Insurance Open and fifth at the Phoenix Open. He’s flirting with victory.

Geoff Ogilvy
Pebble Beach Pro-Am odds: +2000

Ogilvy looked pretty sharp upon returning from his finger injury last week, going 67-66-67-71 en route to a 13th-place finish at the Phoenix Open. You never know when that putter of his will catch fire. Was last week’s solid showing the calm before the storm?

SOLID PICKS

J.B. Holmes
Pebble Beach Pro-Am odds: +3300

Holmes has plenty going for him this week. He’s hot, having finished fifth last week and led the field in birdies. He also finished second at last year’s Pebble Beach Pro-Am and has never missed the cut there. The quintessential medium risk, medium-reward pick.

Mark Wilson
Pebble Beach Pro-Am odds: +4000

OK, Mark, you have our attention. Wilson hasn’t accomplished anything special at Pebble Beach but we can’t ignore his torrid play. He was downright dominant at Scottsdale last week, leading the field in greens in regulation and bogeying just four holes. Can he win for the third time this year?

THE SLEEPER

Tom Gillis
Pebble Beach Pro-Am odds: +10000

Whoa, daddy! Have we ever had a 100-to-1 sleeper in this column? Despite his long-shot odds, Tom Gillis isn’t a total stab in the dark. He led the Tour in birdie average last season and was 11th in birdies or better on Par 5s. If you feel lucky, maybe he’s your man.

THE PICK

I’m tempted to go for broke with Tom Gills. But doing so would be contradicting the advice I gave at the top of this article: to stay the course. Picking Gillis is reactionary, overthinking things because too many no-names are winning tournaments. Let’s stick to our principle of making the truly educated pick. This week, I believe that means picking J.B. Holmes.

Pebble Beach Pro-Am pick: J.B. Holmes +3300

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2011 Pebble Beach Pro-Am Updated Betting Odds

Davis Love III 80-1
Aaron Baddeley 100-1
Bill Lunde 80-1
Bo Van Pelt 40-1
Arjun Atwal 125-1
Chris Kirk 80-1
Bryce Molder 80-1
Charlie Wi 100-1
Chris Riley 150-1
Charley Hoffman 60-1
Andres Romero 150-1
DA Points 80-1
DJ Trahan 80-1
Hunter Mahan 25-1
Dustin Johnson 7-1
Brendon de Jonge 60-1
Jason Dufner 80-1
Jonathan Byrd 40-1
Brian Gay 40-1
Jim Furyk 20-1
Brandt Snedeker 30-1
John Daly 250-1
David Duval 80-1
JB Holmes 30-1
Heath Slocum 100-1
Gary Woodland 80-1
Geoff Ogilvy 20-1
Stuart Appleby 100-1
Tim Clark 20-1
Tom Gillis 80-1
Trevor Immelman 200-1
Vijay Singh 30-1
zx Field (Any Other Golfers) 5-2
Kevin Sutherland 80-1
David Toms 80-1
Marc Leishman 60-1
Mark Wilson 40-1
Mike Weir 100-1
Nick Watney 15-1
Padraig Harrington 30-1
Pat Perez 60-1
Phil Mickelson 8-1
Richard S Johnson 150-1
Rory Sabbatini 60-1
Sean OHair 60-1
Spencer Levin 100-1
Steve Marino 50-1
KJ Choi 50-1
Justin Leonard 80-1
Kevin Na 60-1

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