PGA Betting – FedEx St. Jude Classic Preview & Pick – Cappers Picks Blog

PGA Betting – FedEx St. Jude Classic Preview & Pick

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LAST WEEK: Success! Finally, we went with the “hunch” pick and the hunch was right. The question this week is: do I still play a hunch if my hunch is to not play a hunch? Whoa. That’s deep.

We should keep an eye out for a similar player to Stricker this week. TPC Southwind, host of the FedEx St. Jude Classic, ranks among the Tour’s toughest par-70s in terms of general scoring average but, more specifically, greens in regulation. You have to be a good dart thrower and having a strong putter helps, too.

THE ELITE

Lee Westwood
St. Jude Classic odds: +700

Westwood hasn’t played a PGA event since the Masters but he rattled off five top-11 finishes overseas since that event. Westwood is also the defending champion, even if a Robert Garrigus collapse on Sunday gave him a gift last year. He’s a so-so 56^th on Tour in greens in regulation but he’s playing fairly well entering the St. Jude.

THE CONTENDERS

David Toms
St. Jude Classic odds: +1200

The stats and results certainly favor Toms – to the point where he should really have the top odds this week. He’s won the St. Jude twice and cracked the top 10 five other times there. His last two starts this season were a victory and a playoff loss. He’s second on Tour in greens and bogey avoidance. He almost feels too good to be true, doesn’t he?

Zach Johnson
St. Jude Classic odds: +1500

I definitely like the course setup for the accurate Zach Johnson. While he’s 70^th in GIR, he’s seventh in driving accuracy and fourth on Tour in putting. Johnson also has three straight top-12 finishes entering the St. Jude, so he’s heating up. If feels like he’s due for a win.

SOLID PICKS

Jonathan Byrd
St. Jude Classic odds: +2500

Byrd’s peripherals line up well for TPC Southwind, as he’s 18^th in GIR and 11^th in bogey avoidance. He also offers better value than the top guys. If you like making your pick based on a player’s peripheral stats and you want good bang for your buck, Byrd is your man.

Sergio Garcia
St. Jude Classic odds: +2500

Hmm. Have to admit – got a feeling about Sergio this week. He’s very quietly 7 for 7 in cuts made this season and has five top-25 finishes. Sergio is rates as a top-30 guy in GIR and is sixth on Tour in scoring average. I haven’t even given Sergio a thought in a while – he barely qualified for next week’s U.S. Open – but he could sneak up on the field if he can get his putter going.

Brian Gay
St. Jude Classic odds: +2500

If Zach Johnson is due for a win, Brian Gay is overdue. He’s tops on Four in fairways, scrambling and sand saves. Even if those aren’t the crucial skills needed to win the St. Jude, they can’t hurt his chances. Gay also won this tournament in 2009. Maybe a trip to his old stomping grounds will get him back into the win column.

John Senden
St. Jude Classic odds: +3000

Senden warrants consideration because of his accuracy; he’s 10^th in GIR on Tour. He’s flirted with success at TPC Southwind before as well, posting two top-10s in his last four starts. I wouldn’t mind seeing better value, however, for a guy who hasn’t won a PGA event in five years.

THE SLEEPER

Ryuji Imada
St. Jude Classic odds: +8000

For an extreme sleeper odds at 80 to 1, Imada is a reasonably educated choice. The guy has never missed the cut at the St. Jude in three tries and cracked the top 30 each of those times. He also led the field in greens in regulation at the Byron Nelson two weeks ago, where he finished third. You wouldn’t be insane to take a flier on him.

THE PICK

I know I implied that my hunch was to not play a hunch for a second week in a row. But the more I studied up on Sergio, the stronger my hunch became that he’ll return to glory this week. I’ve steered you wrong before but I steered you right with Stricker last week. Let’s play the hunch game again.

St. Jude Classic pick: Sergio Garcia +2500

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2011 St. Jude Classic Tournament – Odds to Win – Updated Betting Odds

Lee Westwood 12/1
David Toms 16/1
Zach Johnson 22/1
Brian Gay 25/1
Jonathan Byrd 28/1
Sergio Garcia 28/1
J.B. Holmes 33/1
Brandt Snedeker 33/1
Robert Karlsson 33/1
Webb Simpson
Retief Goosen 40/1
Gary Woodland
Geoff Ogilvy 40/1
Steve Marino 40/1
Ben Crane 40/1
John Senden 40/1
Robert Allenby 40/1
Scott Verplank 40/1
Padraig Harrington 40/1
Brian Davis 50/1
Fredrik Jacobson 50/1
Chris Couch 50/1
D-A Points
Y-E Yang 50/1
Charles Howell III 50/1
Carl Pettersson 66/1
John Rollins 50/1
Spencer Levin 80/1
Ryuji Imada 66/1
Ben Curtis 66/1
Anthony Kim 80/1
Bryce Molder 66/1
Robert Garrigus 50/1
Heath Slocum 50/1
Keegan Bradley 66/1
D.J. Trahan 66/1
Camilo Villegas 50/1
Brendon De Jonge 50/1
Rod Pampling 50/1
Matt Jones
George Mcneill 80/1
Johnson Wagner 80/1
Chris Stroud 80/1
Brendan Steele 80/1
Stuart Appleby 80/1
Chad Campbell 66/1
Greg Chalmers 80/1
Jhonattan Vegas 80/1
Shaun Micheel 66/1
Tommy Gainey 100/1
Boo Weekley 80/1
Chris Dimarco 100/1
James Driscoll 100/1
Joe Ogilvie 100/1
Kyle Stanley
Dean Wilson
Kevin Stadler 80/1
Troy Matteson 100/1
Nick O’Hern 80/1
Blake Adams 100/1
Jason Bohn 100/1
Jerry Kelly 100/1
Tim Herron 80/1
Chad Collins 100/1
Alex Cejka 100/1
Jimmy Walker 100/1