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PGA Betting – BMW Championship Preview & Pick

Preview and free golf picks for Tournament Two of the PGA 2011 Fed Ex Cup Playoffs – The BMW Championship, which is hosted by TPC Boston, in Norton, Massachusetts. The purse is $8,000,000, and the defending champ is Charlie Hoffman…

PGA Betting – BMW Championship Preview & Pick

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LAST WEEK: The PGA took last week off. Two weeks ago, I missed on Steve Stricker. Should’ve ridden the Webb Simpson wave, I suppose. Can he take a stranglehold on the standings with another “W” this week?

At the BMW Championship, accuracy will be key. The greens and fairways at The Dubsdread Course at Cog Hill both rank among the Tour’s hardest to hit.

Date: Sep. 15 – 18
Event: PGA BMW Championship
Course: Cog Hill G&CC, Lemont, Illinois
Purse: $8,000,000
Defending Champ: Dustin Johnson
Winning Share: $1,350,000
FedEX Cup Points Up For Grabs: 2500

THE CONTENDERS

Luke Donald
BMW Championship odds: +1000

BMW Championship Predictions

Donald has done everything but win of late, posting top-10s in three of his last four outings and finishing third at the Deutsche Bank. He was 10th at the BMW two years ago and every one of his rounds during the playoffs has been under par. He’s a respectable 39th in driving accuracy and 41st in greens in regulation on Tour.

Adam Scott
BMW Championship odds: +1500

Scott has definitely arrived this season. He has a win and four top-10s over his last six starts and he’s a reasonably accurate ball striker. He’s a guy who ranks high among the favorites this week because he’s playing well, not necessarily because he’s particularly suited to the course.

Matt Kuchar
BMW Championship odds: +1500

When you’re third in FedEx Cup points despite not winning yet this season, it means you (a) have a lot of top-10 finishes and (b) are really overdue for a victory. Kuchar finished third at Cog Hill last season. His accurate ball striking fits nicely with the course, too.

Dustin Johnson
BMW Championship odds: +1500

You don’t necessarily think of Dusty as an accurate hitter but his peripherals look good this week. He actually led the field in both driving distance and accuracy at the Deutsche Bank. Pretty impressive. Johnson is also the defending champion at the BMW. Clearly a strong pick.

Webb Simpson
BMW Championship odds: +1500

Leads the Tour in all-around ranking and is clearly hitting the ball right on the screws right now. But a victory would be Simpson’s third in four starts. Isn’t that too much to ask? He made me eat my words once…I dare him to do it again.

Steve Stricker
BMW Championship odds: +1500

I was hoping Stricker’s mini-slump, in which he’s gone five tournaments without a top-10, would give him better sportsbook value. His driving accuracy and GIR aren’t as high as you’d think, just 62nd and 58th, respectively, and he seems to be tiring as the season winds down. He is the creaky vet at 44 years old compared to the other pups contending this week.

SOLID PICK

Nick Watney
BMW Championship odds: +2500

If Watney’s performance at Cog Hill last year is any indication, he could be worth a pick this week. He was 15th or better in all the major accuracy stats at the 2010 BMW. It’s also pretty decent value for the seventh-ranked guy in the standings to be listed at +2500, no?

THE SLEEPER

David Toms
BMW Championship odds: +5000

Toms certainly isn’t playing well right now. He’s opened the playoffs with a missed cut and a T-59. But there may not be a golfer in the field whose peripherals match up better with Cog Hill. He’s second on Tour in greens and fourth in fairways. He’s cracked the top 25 seven times in his last eight tries at this tournament. Not a coincidence.

THE PICK

It’s not often that the guy with the best peripherals gives you a +5000 sleeper return, so I can’t blame anyone who wants to swing for the fences with Toms. At the same time, he’s old enough (44) and has struggled enough in recent years that any mini-slump has to be treated as more than that. It could be decline or a return to Earth.

For that reason, I’ll with Matt Kuchar. He’s not as accurate as Toms but he’s still plenty accurate. He’s also younger and has played well all year. He’s made 19 cuts in 21 starts; he has two runner-up finishes and a third-place; he has nine top-10s; and he has 16 top-25s. It reminds me of last season. He flirted with victory for much of the year before finally getting it done late in the summer.

He doesn’t offer the best return but that’s to be expected from most contenders with the field shrinking every week during the playoffs. Go with Kuchar!

2011 BMW Championship pick: Matt Kuchar +1500

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2011 PGA Tour – Odds To Win The BMW Championship 2011 – Updated Betting Odds

Luke Donald 10/1
Dustin Johnson 16/1
Adam Scott 14/1
Jason Day 16/1
Matt Kuchar 22/1
Webb Simpson 18/1
Steve Stricker 18/1
Jim Furyk 28/1
Phil Mickelson 22/1
Nick Watney 25/1
Charl Schwartzel 28/1
Brandt Snedeker 28/1
Sergio Garcia 40/1
Zach Johnson 40/1
Hunter Mahan 40/1
Camilo Villegas 40/1
Rickie Fowler 40/1
Charles Howell III 40/1
Robert Karlsson 50/1
Gary Woodland 40/1
Ryan Moore 50/1
Bo Van Pelt 50/1
Bubba Watson 40/1
K.J. Choi 50/1
Vijay Singh 50/1
David Toms 50/1
Justin Rose 66/1
Ernie Els 66/1
Fredrik Jacobson 100/1
Aaron Baddeley 66/1
Bill Haas 80/1
Jerry Kelly 100/1
Geoff Ogilvy 66/1
Carl Pettersson 80/1
Chez Reavie 66/1
Kyle Stanley 66/1
Mark Wilson 100/1
Y-E Yang 80/1
Keegan Bradley 80/1
Robert Allenby 100/1
Jason Dufner 100/1
Lucas Glover 100/1
Andres Romero 80/1
Rory Sabbatini 100/1
Jonathan Byrd 125/1
Brian Davis 125/1
Charley Hoffman 125/1
Marc Leishman 100/1
Steve Marino 125/1
John Senden 80/1
Chad Campbell 100/1
Brendon De Jonge 125/1
Martin Laird 125/1
Spencer Levin 125/1
Sean O’Hair 80/1
Chris Kirk 150/1
Scott Piercy 100/1
Blake Adams 150/1
George Mcneill 150/1
Ryan Palmer 125/1
D-A Points 150/1
Brendan Steele 125/1
Brandt Jobe 150/1
Chris Stroud 150/1
Cameron Tringale 200/1
Jimmy Walker 200/1
Tommy Gainey 150/1
Scott Stallings 200/1
Johnson Wagner 200/1
Jhonattan Vegas 200/1

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By Shea Matthews

Shea Matthews the Senior Writer at CP. Lives and breathes sports. He made the transition from athlete to sports journalist at a young age, writing in TV & national papers. Shea applies his knowledge to sports betting + handicapping daily, and shares winning picks with the world.