Bet On Golf – AT&T National Championship Predictions + Free PGA Pick
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LAST WEEK: Should’ve trusted my own hunch! Had a feeling about Fredrik Jacobson but just didn’t think his trends showed a win on the horizon. His victory at the Travelers supports the theory that peripheral stats are more important than results. 
Jacobson’s putter suited him well to the tournament even if he hadn’t been topping leaderboards left and right prior to last weekend.
June 30 – July 03 2011
Event: AT&T National
Course: Aronimink Golf Club, Newtown Square, Pennsylvania
Purse: $6,200,000
Defending Champ: Justin Rose
Winning Share: $1,116,000
FedEX Cup Points Up For Grabs: 500
The AT&T National at Aronimink Golf club is one tough tournament as far as non-majors go. Aronimink played as the second-hardest of 14 par-70s on Tour last season.
Bogey avoidance, the ability to hit greens, putting and scrambling are all important stats to look at this week.
THE ELITE
Nick Watney
AT&T National odds: +1200
We know the drill with Watney at this point. He’s had the odd hiccup but he’s been among the best players on Tour all season long. He’s 13th on Tour in greens hit, fifth in bogey avoidance, and could seize a golden opportunity against a weak field this week.
THE CONTENDERS
Bo Van Pelt
AT&T National odds: +2000
Van Pelt is an accurate player, 23rd on Tour in greens hit, and carries momentum into the AT&T National. He tied with Watney for 13th at the Travelers last week and has four straight top-15s overall. As usual, he’s an underwhelming but reasonable pick.
Ryan Moore
AT&T National odds: +2000
If you want the hot hand plus the guy with solid history at Aronimink, Ryan Moore is your man. He finished second there last year, also ranking second in the field in putting. Moore also sizzled at the Travelers, shooting three of four rounds at 64 or lower, including his 63 on Sunday that helped him finish second. If he can keep the momentum going, he could win big this week.
Hunter Mahan
AT&T National odds: +2000
Mahan hasn’t flirted with a win for more than a month but his accurate ball-striking makes him someone to consider. He’s fourth on Tour in greens in regulation and a respectable 41st in putting. If anything holds Mahan back this week, it will be his often-spotty scrambling.
SOLID PICKS
Webb Simpson
AT&T National odds: +2500
The peripheral stats seem to point Simpson’s way this week. He led the Travelers Championship field in putting en route to a T13 finish. He’s 21st on Tour in greens and ninth in the important bogey-avoidance stat. Simpson has also been one of the Tour’s most consistent players of late, posting seven top-25s in his last eight tries.
Bill Haas
AT&T National odds: +3000
Haas is among the Tour’s best in greens and bogey avoidance but will Aronimink throw him off? He didn’t play last week and he’s never played at this course before. His peripherals look good but, if you like Haas, you may as well take Simpson, whose game is sharper right now.
J.B. Holmes
AT&T National odds: +4000
J.B. Holmes always has a chance to make a splash if he can get his putting and scrambling going to match his booming drives. He was fifth at Aronimink last season, too. But Holmes is cold, having finished 51st and 59th his last two tournaments.
THE SLEEPER
Mark Wilson
AT&T National odds: +6000
The +6000 odds represent awfully good value for a guy with two wins and four top-10s this season. Wilson also does a great job avoiding bogeys, ranking fifth on Tour in that stat. The problem with Wilson is his inconsistency. He’s missed three of his last five cuts and has been pretty bad overall – I would even say he’s been one of the Tour’s worst players – since winning two of his first three tournaments this season.
THE PICK
I didn’t have to deliberate too much this week. Nick Watney is always in the hunt but can’t seem to break through this season. Ryan Moore has a lot going for him but his torrid play at the Travelers seems unsustainable and almost gives him a “too obvious” vibe. Webb Simpson just feels squeaky-clean to me.
He satisfies every need as a pick in that he’s playing well right now, his peripheral stats suit the course and he offers a reasonable return on your investment. Choose him.
AT&T National pick: Webb Simpson +2500
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2011 AT&T National Tournament – Odds to Win – Updated Betting Odds
Watney, Nick 12-1
Moore, Ryan 20-1
Van Pelt, Bo 20-1
Mahan, Hunter 20-1
Choi, KJ 25-1
Simpson, Webb 25-1
Rose, Justin 30-1
Streelman, Kevin 30-1
Haas, Bill 30-1
Scott, Adam 30-1
Woodland, Gary 40-1
Holmes, J.B. 40-1
Fowler, Rickie 40-1
Furyk, Jim 40-1
Howell III, Charles 40-1
Villegas, Camilo 50-1
Pettersson, Carl 50-1
Merrick, John 50-1
Glover, Lucas 50-1
Marino, Stephen 50-1
Singh, Vijay 50-1
Gay, Brian 50-1
O’Hair, Sean 50-1
Barnes, Ricky 50-1
Ogilvie, Joe 50-1
Allenby, Robert 50-1
Dufner, Jason 50-1
Overton, Jeff 50-1
Garrigus, Robert 60-1
Levin, Spencer 60-1
Imada, Ryuji 60-1
Davis, Brian 60-1
Wilson, Mark 60-1
Rollins, John 60-1
Wi, Charlie 60-1
Trahan, D.J. 60-1
Hoffman, Charley 60-1
Molder, Bryce 60-1
Taylor , Vaughn 80-1
Kim, Anthony 80-1
Adams, Blake 80-1
Bradley, Keegan 80-1
Na, Kevin 80-1
Frazar, Harrison 80-1
Vegas, Jhonnathan 80-1
de Jonge, Brendon 80-1
Perez, Pat 80-1
Leishman, Marc 80-1
Cantlay, Patrick 100-1
Against the Field (Any Other Golfer) 5-2
