2010 PGA Tour Championship Preview/Picks

PGA Betting – TOUR Championship Preview & Pick

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Date: Sep. 23 – 26
Event: THE TOUR Championship presented by Coca-Cola
Course: East Lake GC, Atlanta, Georgia
Purse: $7,500,000
Defending Champ: Phil Mickelson

Before we totally write off golf’s FedEx Cup playoffs as irrelevant, know this: the top 25 in this week’s Tour Championship get bonus money and exemptions into the first three 2011 majors plus the WGC-CA Championship. Not bad.

The host course, East Lake, rewards accuracy more than anything else; its greens are among the hardest to hit on Tour. Let’s keep that in mind when we assess this week’s field — which is Tigerless, of course. Sniff, sniff.

THE CONTENDERS

Phil Mickelson
Tour Championship odds: +605

Aside from his Masters title, 2010 hasn’t been a banner season for Phil Mickelson. But we shouldn’t be surprised if he closes strong at East Lake, He’s a two-time winner at this course; he led the field in birdies and putting last year. But will he still threaten if he isn’t hot at the moment?

Dustin Johnson
Tour Championship odds: +850

Johnson was a pedestrian 27^th last year at East Lake but the big fella has improved his putting since then and he’s always a threat to win given his length. Still, he’s not a total dart thrower and that’s the type of shotmaking needed to win the Tour Championship.

Steve Stricker
Tour Championship odds: +850

I have a good feeling about Stricker, the only golfer to crack the top-10 in all three playoff events so far this year. He’s second on Tour in putting and 20^th in fairways hit; his tight game suits East Lake well.

Matt Kuchar
Tour Championship odds: +950

A win would cement the Player of the Year award for the uber-consistent Kuchar. He hasn’t played East Lake before but he’s flashed tremendous ball-striking all year. I’m surprised he isn’t the favorite. Maybe that means we should pounce on his better-than-expected sportsbook value.

SOLID PICKS

Adam Scott
Tour Championship odds: +1615

Betting on Scott depends on what you value you more: peripheral stats or recent play. The 2006 champ at East Lake is just 121^st in putting and 85^th in fairways but he’s cracked the top 15 in all three playoff events.

Jim Furyk
Tour Championship odds: +2050

Unlike Scott’s, Furyk’s peripherals are rock-solid entering the Tour Championship. He’s seventh on Tour in fairways and led the field in fairways at the BMW. He hasn’t broken through for a while but did have the two wins earlier this season.

Zach Johnson
Tour Championship odds: +2250

We have to mention Johnson’s name in any tournament that rewards accuracy. If you add up putting and driving accuracy ranks, his number is the lowest in the field (11^th in putting, ninth in driving). He warrants strong consideration.

THE SLEEPER

Tim Clark
Tour Championship odds: +3550

On one hand, Clark is the most accurate guy in this week’s field, ranking fourth on Tour in fairways hit. On the other, he’s cold right now, with no top-20s in this last five tries. Which side of him will win out this week?

THE PICK

Mid-tier guys like Zach Johnson and especially Jim Furyk interest me this week. And we can never count out Kuchar and Dustin Johnson. But I really like the way this course sets up for Stricker. He’s consistent, reliable, accurate – the right man to close out the playoff with a victory. He’s flirted with it for three straight weeks now.

Pick: Steve Stricker +850

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