PGA Betting – St. Jude Classic presented by Smith & Nephew
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It’s too bad we won’t see Tiger Woods at the St. Jude Classic this week.
He could use another tune-up before the U.S. Open next week and the St. Jude at TPC Southwind makes for excellent practice.
Date: Thursday June 10 – June 13
Event: St. Jude Classic presented by Smith & Nephew
Course: TPC Southwind · Memphis, Tenn.
Purse: $5,600,000
Defending Champ: Brian Gay
FedEX Cup Points Up For Grabs: 500
TPC Southwind was the most difficult non-major course in all of 2009 and its short, narrow design, which rewards accuracy, will mimic the U.S. Open conditions, as Pebble Beach will play short and tight this year.
With Southwind’s makeup in mind, we’ll watch for ball strikers and strong scramblers this week.
THE ELITE
Lee Westwood
St. Jude Classic odds: +1215
Westwood makes his first trip to Memphis but you can bet he’ll be focused as he prepares for another major championship try. He was fourth at the Players and he’s an accurate ball striker, so a victory from him wouldn’t surprise anyone.
Rory McIlroy
St. Jude Classic odds: +1415
He cracks the elite only because the books think he does. In reality, the youngster is a trap pick this week. He’s a bomber off the tee but that won’t help him this week and all his accuracy ranks are average at best on Tour this year. Avoid him.
THE CONTENDERS
Ben Crane
St. Jude Classic odds: +1850
Educated bettors may pick Crane this week. He leads the Tour in all-around ranking and hasn’t finished worse than seventh over his last three starts. All his accuracy stats – scrambling, greens, fairways hit – are elite.
David Toms
St. Jude Classic odds: +1850
Toms has better history on his side than anyone else at the St. Jude Classic. How good has he been? Try two wins, a runner-up last year and the most career earnings by anyone at this tournament. Anyone who bases picks primarily on past performance at a specific tournament should pounce on him.
Zach Johnson
St. Jude Classic odds: +2050
I’m still kicking myself for not picking him at Colonial two weeks back. He’s a pure ball striker and one of the game’s best at conquering the tight little tracks. The only reason I didn’t choose him two weeks ago was that he didn’t have a win under his belt. Now, he does. So….
SOLID PICKS
Camilo Villegas
St. Jude Classic odds: +2850
He’s cooled down after a hot start but he’s comfortable at TPC Southwind, four-for-four in cuts made with two top-20 finishes. Given his ball striking and willingness to attack the pin in what are expected to be muddy conditions, he could sneak up on this field.
Padraig Harrington
St. Jude Classic odds: +1850
The books are trying to squeeze bettors by giving him the same value as some of the elite picks. Paddy is an excellent scrambler and putter, so his makeup is right for TPC Southwind, but he’s coming off knee surgery. It’s generally not a good idea to throw money down on a guy who just went under the knife.
THE SLEEPER
Heath Slocum
St. Jude Classic odds: +3250
He’s cracked the top 20 in four of six starts. The peripherals are also there – he’s fourth in fairways hit, seven in GIR and 18th in ball striking on Tour. He even has five top-25 finishes in seven tries at the St. Jude Classic. That’s a lot going for him considering his betting value versus the other golfers.
THE PICK
On one hand, I’m determined not to let Johnson sting me again. On the other, Slocum’s breakdown reminds me a bit of what Johnson was two weeks ago. We also can’t rule out Toms’ dominance at this tournament. In the end, Toms is due to regress for a change and, while Slocum is playing well, he’s it’s not like he’s been challenging with runner-up finishes left and right. I’ll ride the poised and accurate Johnson.
Pick: Zach Johnson +2050
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