PGA Betting – PGA Championship Preview & Pick
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Date: Thursday August 12 – Sunday August 15th
Event: PGA Championship
Course: Whistling Straits, Kohler, Wisconsin
Purse: $7.5 million
Defending Champ: Y.E. Yang
FedEX Cup Points Up For Grabs: 600
The last major of 2010 is upon us and there’s plenty at stake for the two biggest names in golf. Can Tiger Woods finally win another major – and his first tournament of the year? Can Phil Mickelson leapfrog Tiger to snag the World No. 1 ranking? Or will someone else spoil the party for both of them?
The Straits Course at Whistling Straights will challenge every golfer in that it requires a little bit of everything. Driving accuracy, putting and scrambling will all be at a premium. Here’s a look at the more intriguing picks to consider this week.
THE CONTENDERS
Phil Mickelson
PGA Championship odds: +1215
Recent performance doesn’t suggest that Phil is a strong pick – he struggled down the stretch at the WGC-Bridgestone last week – but there’s no real rhyme or reason to Lefty from week to week. He can be slumping badly entering a major and catch fire out of nowhere. If you have a hunch, you could do worse than to play it on Mickelson.
Tiger Woods
PGA Championship odds: +1615
Finally, the books scaled back Tiger’s odds. It’s about time. The man simply isn’t mentally ready to compete at the highest level on the PGA Tour right now. His 72-hole score at Firestone last week was the worst of his career. He’s done very little to suggest that betting on him is anything but throwing your money away at this point. That said, top players do rise to the occasion in majors. Even the struggling Tiger has a fourth, fourth and 23rd-place finish in majors this year. Maybe he’ll dig deep and surpass our expectations this week. 
Rory McIlroy
PGA Championship odds: +1615
McIlroy enters the PGA as hot and consistent as anyone out there right now. He tied for third at the British Open and was ninth at the WGC-Bridgestone last week. Interestingly, the long hitter was ninth in the field in putting. McIlroy’s combination of power and finesse reminds me of a young John Daly – minus the off-course troubles.
SOLID PICKS
Padraig Harrington
PGA Championship odds: +1815
You can never count a three-time major champion out and Paddy’s game is steadily coming around. He’s posted back-to-back top-10 finishes and ranks 22nd on Tour in putting this season. As one of the game’s best course managers, he’s also mentally equipped to handle the unique challenge of the Straits Course.
Retief Goosen
PGA Championship odds: +3250
Mr. Ice-in-his veins has flown under the radar this season but he’s quietly been quite effective. His eight top-10 finishes are tied with Matt Kuchar for tops on Tour this year. But it’s been several years since Retief celebrated a major championship. Is his prime over?
Matt Kuchar
PGA Championship odds: +3550
Kuchar will be a very popular pick this week and deservedly so. In addition to leading the Tour in all-around peripheral ranking this year, Kuchar is hot, with four top-10s in his last six starts. But we don’t often see him high on leaderboards on Sundays in majors. Until we do, I’m not totally convinced he’s ready.
Hunter Mahan
PGA Championship odds: +3850
Is it cliché to go with the most recent Tour winner? Maybe, but Hunter Mahan makes a strong case. He hasn’t had a great year but he was dialed in last week, winning at Firestone and leading the field in putting. He also leads the Tour in total driving. Mahan has a real shot this week.
THE SLEEPER
Jeff Overton
PGA Championship odds: +6050
For the second straight week, Overton tops my sleeper list. His sixth-place finish at the WGC-Bridgestone marked his fourth straight top-11 finish. A closer look at his peripheral numbers from that performance should get bettors even more excited. Overton was second in birdies, sixth in putting, seventh in greens and 12th in fairways. Picking him wouldn’t be that much of a stretch.
THE PICK
In handicapping the major championships this season, I’ve followed some logical trends: recent performance, peripheral stats, past major history and so on. But I’ve overlooked one other major trend: first-time winners on Tour. We’re seeing newbies take home the big prize more than ever – including the last two majors.
If Graeme McDowell and Luis Oosthuizen can do it, why not Overton? I’d pick him to sneak up on the big names and snag the PGA Championship this week – at great value.
Pick: Jeff Overton +6050
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