PGA Betting – British Open Championship Preview & Pick
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Date: Thursday July 15 – July 18
Event: British Open Championship
Course: St. Andrews Links (Old Course), Fife, Scotland
Purse: $7,000,000
Defending Champ: Stewart Cink
FedEX Cup Points Up For Grabs: 600
Is it just me or is this year’s Open Championship, a.k.a. The British Open, shaping up to be one of the most exciting in years?
Think of the storylines. We have a beaten down Tiger playing overseas for the first time since his comeback – at St. Andrews, a course he’s dominated in the past; we also have local heroes like Lee Westwood and Justin Rose hoping to finally break through and win the big one. This should be very dramatic stuff.
Let’s make our picks. And it’s safe to say Tiger and Phil don’t get their own categories; that would be an insult to their other opponents, who have really elevated their play this year.
THE ELITE
Tiger Woods
British Open odds: +405
For the most part, I’ve grown tired of seeing Tiger top the “odds to win” list at sportsbooks every time he plays this season despite his never backing up that top billing. But St. Andrews is a true exception. Tiger won by eight strokes here in 2000 and by five in 2005. The links setup can be forgiving to his sometimes-errant drives and he still has a special creativity and ability to scramble that sets champions apart from contenders at St. Andrews.
Phil Mickelson
British Open odds: +1215
Hard to recommend Lefty this week given the poor return you get on your investment at +1215. Why would a guy with one top-10 in 16 British Open starts be listed as the No. 2 favorite to win? This is a perfect example of the books using name value to trick bettors.
Lee Westwood
British Open odds: +1615
My pick to win the U.S. Open finally ended his stretch of outstanding major championship play and flopped at Pebble Beach. He has two top-five finishes at the Open but I’m not sure we can trust him this week. For one, he’s 190th on Tour in sand saves, so he’ll need to be near perfect in his approaches. Secondly, there’s that all-powerful British media scrutiny hanging over him. There’s a reason why Colin Montgomerie never won the big one and it’s the same reason why Lee can’t break through. 
Justin Rose
British Open odds: +1850
It’s almost as if the Englishman Rose benefits from all the attention Westwood gets. Media don’t seem to notice as much that Rose is the Tour’s hottest player, with two wins in his last three starts. He’s 15th on Tour in ball striking so he should be all over the stick. Still, what happens if Rose enters Sunday with a lead and the pressure of a nation – a kingdom – on his shoulders?
THE CONTENDERS
Padraig Harrington
British Open odds: +2250
Paddy has flown under the radar in 2010, failing to win a tournament. But he does have four top-10s on the PGA Tour this year, including a fifth-place at his last venture, the Travelers Championship. That effort was telling; he finished with 69-64 on the weekend, suggesting that he may finally be over his knee surgery. Two-time Open champion and two-time Dunhill Links winner (part of which are played at St Andrews). Can’t argue against anyone who picks Harrington.
Steve Stricker
British Open odds: +2250
Stricker gets a mention after winning last week’s tournament but we’ve seen this movie a thousand times. Stricker runs the table at the Mickey Mouse events but his mental fortitude just isn’t the same when he hangs with the big boys. Avoid him.
SOLID PICKS
Retief Goosen
British Open odds: +4050
Goosen may well be the best value pick in the field. He’s a multiple major winner and has seven top-10s at the British Open. He tied Harrington for fifth at the Travelers so he too enters the tourney with decent momentum.
Luke Donald
British Open odds: +4050
See a trend here? The rest of the world is catching up to Americans in golf and Donald is yet another non-U.S.-born player with a good shot at St. Andrews. With Donald, it’s the peripherals that make him so intriguing. He leads the Tour in sand saves and scrambling – not to mention putts inside five feet. He also finished fifth in the British last year.
THE SLEEPER
Edoardo Molinari
British Open odds: +7550
If you haven’t heard of this guy, you will soon. The Italian is quietly ranked 19th in the world and fresh off a European Tour victory at the Scottish Open. Remember the U.S. Open last month? Remember who entered that tourney riding a European win? Some guy named Graeme McDowell.
THE PICK
Lots to sort through here. Tiger looks better on paper here than he has all year, but I still think he’s too distracted to put it all together. Westwood and Rose may feel the pressure too much. Molinari is mighty tempting but the odds of lightning striking twice in a row with out-of-nowhere winners at majors aren’t too good.
In the end, I like Donald. You could argue I’m contradicting myself by picking a Brit in a pressure-packed event, but he doesn’t attract as much fanfare as the Westwoods, Roses or Poulters of the world. The numbers suggest his game is better suited to St. Andrews this year than anyone else in the field’s.
Pick: Donald +4050
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