PGA Betting: World Match Play Championship Preview
The top 64 players in the World Golf Rankings (and 16 of the top 25 on the PGA Tour’s money list) will suit up in the Accenture World Match Play Championship this week. Just like in March Madness betting, odds in the sportsbook are listed for the winner of each bracket and the overall winner of the tournament.
Let’s examine each bracket and come up with some sharp golf betting picks:
Ben Hogan Bracket
Sportsbook favorite: Phil Mickelson (+330)
After Phil Mickelson tore up the Northern Trust Open last week (and then nearly blew it), a lot bettors are confident that he’s beyond his slow start to the season. He is favored (+330) in the Ben Hogan Bracket but Luke Donald is a sexy value pick. Donald has quietly pieced together a nice season so far, finishing in the Top 25 in all four tournaments he’s entered, which included a tie for sixth last week.
Vijay Singh (+800) and Ernie Els (+800) are brand names that will get plenty of betting attention but Donald is the pick in this bracket.
Golf betting pick: Luke Donald +750
Bobby Jones Bracket
Sportsbook favorite: Tiger Woods (+125)
The favorite in this bracket – the heavy favorite – is Tiger Woods, who will be playing his first tournament since last year’s U.S. Open. As much of an all-time great Woods is, there is no reason to bet him this week because he’s not offering much value at +125 and there are plenty of caveats, such as rust, long layover or mental hurdles, he might have to overcome.
At the same time, with Woods around, you get excellent value with a former winner in Geoff Ogilvy. Ogilvy won this event in 2006 and placed second in 2007. Outside of Ogilvy, Mike Weir (+1100) and Retief Goosen (+1600) will attract some action but Ogilvy is the play here.
Golf betting pick: Geoff Ogilvy +700
Gary Player Bracket
Sportsbook favorite: Sergio Garcia (+350)
Sergio Garcia is a +350 favorite in the Gary Player Bracket with Adam Scott (+600), Paul Casey (+700) and Robert Karlsson (+800) all following suit.
It’s hard not to be tempted with Karlsson, who is an underrated golfer. He is not a brand name in the United States, which is why his odds are fairly low.
On the European Tour, Karlsson has finished tied for 14th, 37th and fourth this season, with the fourth-place finish being the most recent. He’s worth a value play.
This bracket appears to be the weakest one since there is no Woods, Mickelson, Kim or Harrington. In this bracket, it’s worth going with a longer shot, which is why Karlsson fits the profile.
Golf betting pick: Robert Karlsson +800
Sam Snead Bracket
Sportsbook favorites: Henrik Stenson and Anthony Kim (both +450)
Henrik Stenson and Anthony Kim are co-favorites in this bracket at +450. Kim should be a longer shot to win it, though, because this will be his first Accenture World Match Play tournament. Some people are tempted with Kim because of how well he performed in the singles section of the Ryder Cup, dominating Sergio Garcia.
Stenson is a former winner, which makes him a more attractive play. He won the World Match Play Championship in 2007 and finished third last season. That was his only PGA Tour win, though, as he spends more time on the European Tour.
Stenson has played well so far this season, with three top-five finishes in the five tournaments he’s entered. He placed second and third in his last two tournaments.
Padraig Harrington might be worth at a look at +600 but Stenson’s history at the Accenture, along with how well he’s playing right now, makes him the pick in the Sam Snead Bracket.
