2011-12 NHL Team Preview: Winnipeg Jets
Among NHL cities, Winnipeg is clearly the biggest winner entering the 2011-12 season. The Jets are back after a decade and a half and the city is rejoicing. Will the good news stop there or will the loyal Jets fans get rewarded with some playoff hockey this season?
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WINNIPEG JETS
Stanley Cup odds: +5000
On paper, the Jets’ 2010-11 season, their last as the Altanta Thrashers, makes it look like they flirted with a playoff berth, as they went a respectable 34-36-12 with 80 points. But the truth is that last year was a tale of two seasons, as the Thrashers were one of the league’s better teams in the first half before tanking in the New Year.
The Jets made a few minor signings in the offseason, Eric Fehr and Tanner Glass among them, but their personnel remains largely unchanged entering this year. That means they’ll have to improve from within. Is it possible?
Two guys with room to make major leaps are the team’s two high-profile draft picks of the last few seasons: defenseman Zach Bogosian and winger Evander Kane. Bogosian still has a chance to become a star defenseman in the Ed Jovanovski mold, as big defenders often develop their offense slowly. While Kane has flashed speed, power and two-way ability, it remains to be seen if he can mature into a premiere power forward.
The rest of Winnipeg’s roster makes me worry, however, as it feels like so many of its guys have already peaked. Tobias Enstrom isn’t likely to top his 51 points on the blueline; Dustin Byfuglien had an outstanding season on the back end, too, but I wouldn’t be surprised if 2010-11 goes down as his career year. Big Buff had 20 goals and 53 points but scored just four times in his last 29 games. Even last year, he regressed. [ad-4437448]
I also think captain Andrew Ladd maxed out at his 59 points last season. The Jets have other effective young forwards, including Blake Wheeler and Brian Little but, if they were going to elevate their games to elite new levels, it would’ve happened by now.
The Jets’ two goalies, Ondrej Pavelec and Chris Mason, have something in common: they both flash brilliance but can’t seem to handle extended workloads. Both guys start to wilt when relied upon for too long as starters. Pavelec was the featured guy last season but his first half (17-12-7, 2.44 GAA, .927 SV%) was far superior to his second half (4-11-2, 3.33, .883).
When I look at the Jets, I see a fairly fast, strong skating team with some depth and skill at forward, some decent talent on the blueline and a goaltending tandem that could be effective if rotated properly.
But I don’t see a single forward who looks like a true first-liner so far. I don’t see a legitimate shutdown defenseman yet. And I don’t see a reliable goalie who can steal games. In other words, I don’t see three cornerstones of a playoff team.
The Jets should be pesky and competitive. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see them fly out of the gate for 10 games or so, riding the excitement of being back in Winnipeg. But, in the end, I don’t think this team is improved enough to reach the big dance.
Prediction: 4th, Southeast Division
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