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Game 1 Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Washington Capitals NHL Picks | Preview

Its NHL playoff betting time once again. The Tampa Bay Lightning vs.Washington Capitals is on tap tonight. Both will be trying to pick up a win with the line opening with Washington as a -175 favorite in this matchup. The over/under is set at 5.5, here is the handicapping preview…

2011 NHL Hockey Free Predictions: Lightning vs Capitals

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NHL Playoff Betting: Lightning vs Capitals Game 1 Preview & Pick
Date: Friday, April 29, 2011
Venue: Verizon Center, Washington, D.C.
Broadcast: Versus, TSN
Tampa Bay Lightning at Washington Capitals Betting Lines from Bookmaker.com
Money Line: Lightning +155, Capitals -175
Spread: Capitals -1.5
Over/Under: 5.5

Most of us expect plenty of fireworks as the Lightning/Capitals series starts tonight. After all, we have Alex Ovechkin, Alex Semin, Nicklas Backstrom, Steven Stamkos, Martin St. Louis and Vinny Lecavalier in the same series. But my big question for Game 1 is whether or not Washington shows up to the party tonight.

Since around the start of the New Year and the end of the HBO series chronicling their struggles, the Capitals have matured into a much better hockey team. Sure, Ovechkin’s 85 points were a career low, but the Caps became one of the league’s best defensive teams and finally got some reliable goaltending. The encouraging trends continued into round one against the Rangers, as Washington held New York below two goals in three of five games. Michael Neuvirth had a .950 save percentage in the series.

So the Caps have reason to feel confident entering Game 1 against a team they’ve beaten 20 times in the last 26 meetings. But I worry they’ll be caught with their pants down tonight.

Whenever a team (a) wins a series early and has a week-long layoff and (b) opens a series at home, there’s always the worry about complacency. Is it possible the Caps have lost their edge just a little bit? This is a team that had trouble with focus early in the season.

Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Lightning are in full-on battle mode. They fought back from the brink of elimination to beat the Pittsburgh Penguins in seven games, winning on the road. Martin St. Louis is firing on all cylinders and Steve Downie did a great job combining scoring touch with his agitating ways in the first round. It may take the Caps’ defenders a game or two to figure out how to handle him.

Most importantly, the Caps are facing a hot goalie. Dwayne Roloson was unbelievable in the first round against Pittsburgh, matching Neuvirth’s .950 save percentage despite facing 108 shots more. He shut Washington out twice in the regular season and he should still be in a rhythm after playing two days ago.

I like Washington to win the series – but not Game 1. I think the Caps will need a game to get their heads back in things.

Lightning vs Capitals prediction: Lightning 4, Capitals 2

Money Line: Lightning +155
Spread: Lightning +1.5
Over/Under: OVER 5.5

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By Shea Matthews

Shea Matthews the Senior Writer at CP. Lives and breathes sports. He made the transition from athlete to sports journalist at a young age, writing in TV & national papers. Shea applies his knowledge to sports betting + handicapping daily, and shares winning picks with the world.