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Week 6 Bears vs. Falcons NFL Predictions

The Chicago Bears will try to keep their run of good play going as they travel to Atlanta to take on the suprisingly good Atlanta Falcons in week 6 action. We preview and pick this game

NFL Football Betting – Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons

The Atlanta Falcons (3-2 SU & ATS), who just got an uplifting road win last week against the Packers, return home this week to face the Chicago Bears (3-2 SU, 3-1-1 ATS) in an NFL contest that is slated to get underway at 1 PM ET at the Georgia Dome (artificial turf) in Atlanta.

BetUS NFL Betting Odds: CHICAGO -2.5, Total 43.5

Sunday, October 12
NOTABLE STAT: Falcons are averaging 5.5 yards per rushing attempt

KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: Atlanta has played last six at home over the total

In the BetUS NFL football betting odds, the Bears are listed as a 2.5-point favorite, with a posted total of 43.5 points.

Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup (reflecting numbers going into the 2008 season):

* CHI is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games
* CHI has won five of its last seven games SU
* CHI is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine road games
* CHI has lost four of its last six road games SU
* CHI has played four of its last five road games UNDER the total
* ATL has covered five of its last seven games
* ATL has won four of its last six games SU
* ATL has lost 17 of its last 24 games SU
* ATL has played ten of its last 12 games OVER the total
* ATL has played its last six home games OVER the total

Also…

* CHI has covered the last five meetings
* CHI has won eight of the last nine meetings SU
* The last five meetings have gone UNDER the total

These two teams like to run the ball, but they certainly do it in different ways, and to different levels of efficiency. They both do it, to a certain degree, to protect their quarterbacks, but Chicago coach Lovie Smith probably has a bit more propensity to let Kyle Orton air things out than Atlanta mentor Mike Smith, who knows he better make the run game the main staple of his attack, since he has a rookie (Matt Ryan) at the helm.

The Falcons are accomplishing their objectives. They are averaging 5.5 yards a carry, and have rushed for more yards at home (252 per game) than any team in the NFL. It’s part of Mike Smith’s hard-nosed philosophy, but you can tell that he is developing a “thunder & lightning” combo similar to what he observed as an assistant in Jacksonville, as he has Michael Turner (543 yards) and Jerious Norwood (249 yards) at his disposal.

Matt Forte has been a solid contributor for the Bears, rushing for 383 yards. But Forte has slowed down since his hot start, gaining just 79 total yards in the last two weeks. Yes, Orton, who has had seven TD passes in the last three weeks, has picked up some of that slack, and now teams are going to have to worry about covering Devin Hester more often, since Lovie has gotten him involved to a greater extent in the offense, with eight catches the last two weeks.

Sure, we’re looking out for the total here, since the Falcons have played six straight at the Georgia Dome over the number. We’ll make this work for us in a different way, however. It seems that just as Mike Martz’s old Rams pass-oriented offenses enjoyed the fast track at the dome in St. Louis, that kind of thing benefits the Atlanta running game. To us, grabbing the points with the Falcons, the 2.5-point underdog in the BetUS NFL football betting odds, seems like the smart thing to do.

JAY’S PLAY: ATLANTA +2.5 ***

By Cappers Picks

Articles on CappersPicks.com are written by Q (the Head Honcho) at Cappers Picks or by our resident "in house" handicapper Razor Ray Monohan! Enjoy the free picks folks! "Pad that bankroll one day at a time!"