NFL Week 5 Expert Picks – Washington Redskins vs. Carolina Panthers
Washington Redskins (2-2 SU, 0-3-1 ATS) at Carolina Panthers (0-3 SU & ATS)
Saunday, October 11 – 1 PM ET
BetUS NFL Odds: CAROLINA -3.5, Total 37.5
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Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
WASH is 0-3-2 ATS in its last five games
WASH has lost six of its last nine games SU
WASH has played ten of its last 12 games UNDER the total
WASH is 0-3-2 ATS in its last five road games
WASH has lost its last five road games SU
WASH has played four of its last six road games UNDER the total
CAR has lost five of its last six games SU
CAR has covered one of its last six games
CAR has played eight of its last 11 games OVER the total
CAR has covered two of its last six home games
CAR has won eight of its last ten home games SU
CAR has played four of its last six home games OVER the total
Also…
WASH has covered five of the last seven meetings
WASH has won seven of the last eight meetings SU
Here is an in-depth analysis on the game followed by my expert pick.
The Washington Redskins are 2-2 (though 0-3-1 in the NFL odds) and Jason Campbell has completed 65% of his passes, yet this team continues to under-achieve when it comes to scoring points. The ‘Skins have tallied 56 points in four games, and have now scored 20 points or less in eleven of their last twelve games. Clinton Portis looks like he may be given more of a role in this offense. He had 98 yards rushing against Tampa Bay last Sunday, and that made it easier to control the ball and the clock against a team that is having more offensive problems than they are.
Jake Delhomme has been having some noticeable problems as Carolina’s quarterback. He’s thrown seven interceptions this season, and last week there was an ill-advises pass that Dallas’ Terrence Newman took to the end zone. That was a low point, for sure, but there were some points in the first half where it looked like the Panthers were going to control things.
Carolina certainly hopes to use its combination backfield of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart to increase its NFL odds, but Williams may continue to carry the lion’s share of the burden, since Stewart’s sore Achilles tendon is still bothering him. It’s been reflected in just 99 yards in 23 carries thus far. That’s not to say John Fox won’t be using him and looking to take pressure off Delhomme.
Campbell threw three interceptions against Tampa Bay, but maybe it’s Delhomme that is the guy liable to throw the more meaningful pickoffs, thus reducing their chances in the NFL odds, because he just can’t find someone who can balance what he has on one side of the formation in Steve Smith, who has caught 15 passes but for just 12.7 yards a catch (compared to 18.2 last year) and Smith has been his target on several of those interceptions, though he’s blanketed.
While we talk about the Redskins’ inability to score a lot of points, but that was more of an issue when they were favored; plus, you’ve got to say the same thing about Carolina right now. They certainly can’t match Washington’s tight end play (with Chris Cooley). Campbell can at least throw more high-percentage passes, and the Panthers have not shown a lot of ability to stop ground attacks (183 ypg, 5.4 ypc allowed). That means the Redskins can run Portis and Ladell Betts.
This one should be played close to the vest, but it’s also the kind of game where we’d be willing to take any points available. In this case, it’s with the Redskins, the 3.5-point underdog in the BetUS NFL odds.
OUR PLAY: WASHINGTON +3.5 **
