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Week 5 Colts vs. Texans NFL Predictions

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

The Houston Texans (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) will, unbelievably, be playing their first home games of the season on Sunday when they play host to the Indianapolis Colts (1-2 SU & ATS) in an AFC South contest that is slated to kick off at 1 PM ET at Reliant Stadium (natural turf) in Houston.

BetUS NFL betting odds: INDIANAPOLIS -3, Total 47
NOTABLE STAT: Peyton Manning has three TD passes, four INT’s

KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: The last six meetings have gone over the total

In the BetUS NFL football betting odds, the Colts are listed as a three-point favorite, with a posted total of 47 points.

Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup (reflecting numbers going into the 2008 season):

* IND has covered one of its last five games
* IND has won 19 of its last 25 games SU
* IND has lost four of its last five games SU
* IND has covered five of its last seven road games
* IND has won 10 of its last 11 road games SU
* IND has played eight of its last 11 road games UNDER the total
* HOU has lost four of its last five games SU
* HOU has played its last five games OVER the total
* HOU has covered four of its last five home games
* HOU has won five of its last six home games SU

Also…

* The last six meetings have gone OVER the total
* HOU has covered four of the last five meetings as the home team
* IND has won five of the last six meetings SU as the road team

Both of these teams suffered a heart-breaking loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, in the waning moments, in their last outing. The Colts welcomed the bye week, since it gave Peyton Manning some extra “gettin’ ready” time after missing all of training camp. Houston has been on the road for three straight games, having had their home opener postponed due to the effects of Hurricane Ike.

Indianapolis’ defensive front, thus far anyway, more closely resembled the sieve-like unit that raised so many questions in the regular season before their eventual run to a Super Bowl title than the one that made massive strides last year. The Colts are yielding 4.9 yards a carry, and gave up 236 rushing yards to a Jacksonville team that had been decimated on its offensive line. So there is plenty of defensive work to do.

Matt Schaub was 29 for 40, with 307 yards and three TD’s against the Jags, so that is an encouraging sign. And Steve Slaton (4.7 ypc) may provide the ultimate answer in the backfield. The Houston secondary is still thin, as with just one INT and a 65% completion percentage against them, they have allowed opponents to convert on 49% of third down opportunities.

The Texans have played seven of their last eight games over the total. They will likely be sky high for this one, but that figures to translate a little more, in our estimation, to effort on the offensive end. Bob Sanders is out for the Colts, and it leaves a big hole in the defense without the presence of the All-Pro safety. Manning is going to get sharper with each passing week, and history would suggest that the current stats (59%, 3 TD’s, 4 INT’s) are way out of the ordinary. Houston’s pass rush is not as good as Gary Kubiak had hoped for (only three sacks). And the technical numbers support a totals play, as these teams have played high-scoring games (last six over the total; five of last six over 50 points).

For us, it’s OVER 47 points, as that figure is posted in the BetUS NFL football betting odds.

Our PLAY: OVER 47 ***

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