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Week 5 Buccaneers vs. Broncos NFL Predictions

NFL Football Betting – Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos (3-1 SU, 1-2-1 ATS) were flying high, then got shot down on Week 4. On Sunday they will get back home to play host to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1 SU & ATS) in NFL action that is slated for a 4:05 PM ET kickoff at Invesco Field at Mile High (natural turf) in Denver.

Sunday, October 5
BetUS NFL betting odds: DENVER -3, Total 48

NOTABLE STAT: Broncos are yielding five yards per rushing attempt

KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: Bucs have played eight of their last 10 games over the total

In the BetUS NFL football betting odds, the Broncos are listed as a three-point favorite, with a posted total of 48 points.

Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup (reflecting numbers going into the 2008 season):

* TB has played eight of its last ten games OVER the total
* TB has lost 14 of its last 19 road games SU
* TB has played its last six road games OVER the total
* DEN is 6-15-1 ATS in its last 22 games
* DEN has won four of its last five games SU
* DEN has played four of its last five games OVER the total
* DEN is 4-11-1 ATS in its last 16 home games
* DEN has won its last five home games SU
* DEN has played four of its last five home games OVER the total

The Broncos obviously slipped up last week against Kansas City, and so did bettors who overloaded on them. Denver had been giving up big numbers on the defensive side, and Larry Johnson of Kansas City, who was counted on by the Chiefs to chew clock and shorten the game, exceeded expectations, running for 198 yards as K.C. knocked off the previously undefeated Broncos by two touchdowns. This is the difficulty facing this defense as it goes into this home game against the Buccaneers, who have successfully put together a patchwork running attack in the wake of the injury to Cadillac Williams last year, which has bled into this year.

Ernest Graham (5.9 ypc) has done a fine job for Tampa Bay, but Jon Gruden has gotten this team airborne under Brian Griese, who threw it up 67 times against Chicago, and was fortunate that a bonehead Bears penalty allowed for a Bucs’ drive to tie the game. In that game, Griese threw three interceptions, and there were three more pickoffs last week against Green Bay, where Griese was just 15 for 30.

Griese may continue to be mistake-prone if the pass becomes a dominant part of the Tampa Bay offense, and while we recognize that Jay Cutler threw a couple of interceptions against the Chiefs, we also know that Cutler is the much steadier hand behind Denver’s attack, which at the moment has four receivers who are on pace for 720 yards or more, including Brandon Marshall (31 catches for 398 yards) and Eddie Royal (27 catches for 298 yards), not to mention Selvyn Young, who’s rushed for over six yards a carry.

Perhaps the best way to go here is with the total. The Bucs have played eight of their last ten over the number, and Denver has played 13 of their last 15 home games over the number. As long as Griese continues to air it out, and Denver can’t stop the run, we’re confident in moving in that direction. We’ll go OVER the 48 points, as it is posted in the BetUS NFL football betting odds.

Our PLAY: OVER 48 ****

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