NFL Week 4 Wagering – Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers
The Atlanta Falcons (2-1 SU & ATS) are showing that they are a different ballclub under Mike Smith than they were last year. On Sunday they will engage in a key NFC South matchup when they visit the Carolina Panthers (2-1 SU, 1-1-1 ATS) in NFL action that is set to take place at 1 PM ET at Bank of America Stadium (natural turf) in Charlotte.
Sunday, September 28
BetUS NFL Betting Odds: CAROLINA -7, Total 39.5
NOTABLE STAT: Falcons are averaging 5.7 per rushing attempt
KEY NFL BETTING TREND: Falcons have played nine of last ten games over the total
In the BetUS NFL football betting odds, the Panthers are listed as a seven-point favorite, with a posted total of 39.5 points.
Here are some NFL football betting trends as they relate to this matchup (reflecting numbers going into the 2008 season):
* ATL has covered four of its last five games
* ATL has lost 16 of its last 22 games SU
* ATL has played nine of its last ten games OVER the total
* ATL has lost nine of its last ten road games SU
* ATL has played 11 of its last 14 road games UNDER the total
* CAR is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games
* CAR has won four of its last six games SU
* CAR has played 11 of its last 16 games UNDER the total
* CAR has covered three of its last 11 home games
* CAR has lost eight of its last 11 home games SU
* CAR has played seven of its last eight home games UNDER the total
Also…
* CAR has covered four of the last six meetings
* CAR has covered six of the last 23 meetings
* CAR has won four of the last six meetings SU
* ATL has won 14 of the last 20 meetings SU
* Seven of the last ten meetings have gone UNDER the total
* ATL has won six of the last eight meetings SU as the road team
* The last five meetings at Charlotte have gone UNDER the total
Last week Atlanta pulled away from Kansas City, turning in a strong performance to rattle the Chiefs by a 38-14 score behind 378 total yards. The Falcons have been very conservative with what they have asked rookie QB Matt Ryan to do, and more to the point, what they have allowed him to do. In three games, Ryan has thrown the ball 64 times, and in his last 63 passes, has just one touchdown. Really, the running game is what Atlanta is going to depend on, and between them, Michael Turner (366 yards) and Jerious Norwood (186 yards) are averaging a little over six yards a carry. The tough news for the Falcons is that they are also surrendering five yards an attempt, and that should allow the Panthers to get their preferred offensive attack going.
Jonathan Stewart and D’Angelo Williams were supposed to share carries and balance the running game for Carolina, and it’s happening very much according to plan. Stewart has 145 yards, with Williams at 144. Steve Smith came back to action last Sunday, and caught four passes for 70 yards, though the Panthers had a rough time of it against Minnesota and its defensive line, which held them to 204 total yards. Even though Smith’s plan is to have his team playing more hard-nosed football, kind of like Carolina or Minnesota, this is still a step down from the defenses the Panthers have faced the last two weeks. Atlanta should be a bit worried about having given up 164 and 184 yards the last two weeks against the Bucs and Chiefs, respectively.
Remember also that this is not Tyler Thigpen they are facing but Jake Delhomme, who may be hitting just 57% of his passes (Ryan is at 53%), and been sacked nine times, but brings the kind of experience that has delivered his team to the Super Bowl, not to mention a combination with Smith that should improve its production over time. Atlanta has some offensive line problems, where first-round draft pick Sam Baker has been hurting. Carolina, which is allowing less than four yards a carry, should succeed on enough occasions to make Ryan go to the air. We’re going to move with the more veteran team here, and that’s the Panthers, the seven-point favorite in the BetUS NFL football betting odds.
