Toothless Lions Already In Need Of Win, Host Packers, Rodgers
I’ll admit that I was wrong about Green Bay Packers (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, 1-0 O/U) quarterback Aaron Rodgers!
After watching the first-time starter in last week’s season opening 24-19 win over the Minnesota Vikings, I can easily see that Rodgers is a much more polished product than I begrudgingly gave him credit for.
While the Packers were fortunate to beat a Minnesota Vikings team that clearly has issues at quarterback with young starter Tarvaris Jackson, Green Bay clearly has some positives they can build on beginning with Rodgers’ encouraging start.
While the young signal caller threw for just 178 yards, he went an efficient 18-for-22 with one touchdown – and more importantly – never had the, ‘deer-in-the-headlights-‘ look that most first-time starters begin their respective careers with.
Running Back Ryan Grant picked up 92 yards after missing most of the preseason and young receiver Greg Jennings looks like he is ready to move into the ‘go-to’ role.
If there is one area of concern for the Packers it would clearly be their run defense which allowed 187 yards on the ground, including 103 and one touchdown to Vikings stud Adrian Peterson.
The Detroit Lions (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 1-0 O/U) took a thorough season-opening spanking from the Atlanta Hawks, losing 34-21 on the road after posting a perfect 4-0 record during the preseason.
The Lions were embarrassed with their run defense against the Falcons last week. First-year Atlanta running back Michael Turner rushed for a franchise-record 220 yards while backup Jerious Norwood picked up another 93 yards on the ground.
While the Lions threw the ball effectively with quarterback Jon Kitna throwing for 262 yards and two touchdowns, Detroit managed to pick up just 62 rushing yards on the ground total and will have big problems against the Packers if they fail to run the ball with any success.
Here is a look at the key trends for each team, followed by my analysis and NFL Free Picks:
The Packers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games in September.
The Packers are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
The Lions are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. NFC North.
The Lions are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
The Over is 4-0 in Packers last 4 games in September.
The Over is 5-0 in Packers last 5 road games.
The Over is 7-0 in Lions last 7 games overall.
The Over is 5-0 in Lions last 5 games following a ATS loss.
The Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
The Home team is 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 meetings.
The Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Detroit.
NFL Odds
Green Bay Packers -3 -115
Detroit Lions +3 -105
Over 44½ -110
Under 44½ -110
Analysis: What can I say about the lowly Detroit Lions that hasn’t already been said? Unless the Lions suddenly develop a rushing attack, they will fail to beat most teams that can play competent pass defense consistently.
The Packers would love to send another strong message to their NFC foes that they are still a genuine contender after trading longtime starter Brett Favre and will get the job done in this matchup. Take the Packers to cover the spread easily.
