Bills, Lynch to bring the Ruckus to Jacksonville, Garrard
The Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1 SU & ATS), who were turned back in their season opener, look to bounce back in their 2008 home debut as they play host to the Buffalo Bills (1-0 SU & ATS) in NFL action that is set to begin at 1 PM ET at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium (natural turf) in Jacksonville.
Sunday, September 14
BetUS NFL Betting Odds: JACKSONVILLE -5.5, Total 37
NOTABLE STAT: Jacksonville had 33 rushing yards last week
KEY NFL FOOTBALL BETTING TREND: Jags have played 11 of last 13 over the total
In the BetUS NFL football betting odds, the Jaguars are listed as a 5.5-point favorite, with a posted total of 37 points.
Here are some NFL betting trends as they relate to this matchup (reflecting numbers going into the 2008 season):
* BUFF has covered 10 of its last 14 games
* BUFF has covered four of its last six road games
* BUFF has lost 17 of its last 24 road games SU
* BUFF has played five of its last six road games UNDER the total
* JAX has covered eight of its last 11 games
* JAX has won 12 of its last 18 games SU
* JAX has played 11 of its last 13 games OVER the total
* JAX has covered five of its last six home games
* JAX has six of its last seven home games SU
* JAX has played five of its last six home games OVER the total
Also…
* BUFF has won and covered four of the last six meetings
Certainly the St. Louis Rams can sympathize with the kind of offensive line problem the jaguars are going through right now. Jacksonville has now lost its starting center, both starting guards, and key reserve lineman Richard Collier, who was shot last week. This leaves some critical holes for a team that prides itself on its power running game, and that showed last Sunday, when the Jags gained but 33 rushing yards on 17 attempts. The way this offense is structured, it can not, and is not intended to, rely on the arm of David Garrard, taking shots down the field while dealing with defenders in his face all afternoon (sacked seven times in the opener).
This is rapidly becoming a mess, and it demonstrates something we continually say, which is that you can replace skill players and “game plan” around their absence, but there is nothing you can do if you are shy in the area of the offensive line. So do not look for Jack Del Rio to come with a miracle cure against Buffalo, which sacked Matt Hasselbeck five times last week.
Meanwhile, though Buffalo’s defensive line may not have been severely tested in last Sunday’s 34-10 laugher, this is a healthier, more confident unit than it was last year. The Bills won’t overwhelm a lot of people offensively, but they have a heady quarterback (Trent Edwards) who is proving to be a successful work in progress, a running back (Marshawn Lynch) that is willing AND able to carry a lot of the load, and, gee, look at Lee Evans, who had 102 receiving yards on just four catches.
Jacksonville’s wideouts (Dennis Northcutt, Reggie Williams, Troy Williamson, etc.) are ill-suited to this pass-first situation, because they are far from threatening. And waiting to apply some additional pressure – and rub some salt in the wounds – is Buffalo’s new defensive tackle, Marcus Stroud, the Jags’ castoff who drew raves in his Bills debut. Oh, and by the way, the special teams dominance Buffalo showed against Seattle was no accident. The Bills, behind ST wizard Bobby April, possess possibly the best unit in the league, and that unit will again be a factor.
We will not recommend Jacksonville with these offensive line problems. So we’re taking all the way with the Bills, the 5.5-point underdog in the BetUS NFL football betting odds.
JAY’S PLAY: BUFFALO +5.5 ****
NFL: Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
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